Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Domino's Pizza
Domino's Pizza
74
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Quality of growth−5
- Customers are shifting−5
- Debt and securitisation−4
Strengths
- Market share against competitors+2
- Dividends and buybacks below FCF+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 74, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 322.35 USD
- Median analyst target
- 350.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +8.6%
- Analysts
- 30
- Target range
- 257.00 – 425.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −19%
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.7
- Forward P/E
- 15.7
- PEG
- 1.46
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30
- −5Quality of growthRevenue is growing 5%, but EPS only 2.5% (TTM); 61% of revenue is low-margin supply chain (USD 3.06bn of 5.03bn). Analysts expect only 2.3% revenue growth next year.
- −2Capital allocationLeveraged model with negative equity (-4.0bn USD); in 2021 shares were repurchased for 1.33bn USD at a price of around 525 USD (P/E approx. 40), versus 309 USD today.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−3 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 15.3 versus 22.7–38.2 in 2021–2025; EV/EBITDA 14.8 versus 19.1–30.8. Lowest level in five years after a share price fall of 25% in a year.
- −2Debt in the valuation and peersWith USD 5.1bn in debt, EV/FCF is 23.3 and EV/EBITDA 14.8 - in line with McDonald's (14.8) and not cheap measured on total capital, even though P/E (forward 15.3 against MCD 17.8 and Yum 22.7) looks low.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−15 of −35
- −5Customers are shiftingUS same-store sales only +0.1% in Q2 (expected 0.62%, year earlier 3.4%) with falling average check; Q1 delivered +0.9%, and the stock fell 11% to its lowest level since July 2023.
- −4Debt and securitisation5.1bn USD of securitised debt, 4.6x EBITDA and interest coverage of 4.9x. Covenants (debt service coverage) may restrict dividends and buybacks, and a rating downgrade would raise funding costs.
- −3Franchisees under pressureThe target for new US stores has been cut to about 175 due to pressured franchise profitability; international same-store sales -0.1% in Q2, dragged down by the largest international franchisee.
- −2Management changeCEO Russell Weiner is stepping down, and Joe Jordan takes over in October 2026 - amid a period of flat US growth and right around the Q3 results.
- −1Short interest10.8% of free float is sold short (3.26m shares, up from 2.90m) - markedly above normal for a large restaurant stock.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Market share against competitorsPapa John's North America sales fell 8.3% and the dividend is suspended; Pizza Hut is standing still and is being sold by Yum. Domino's continues to increase order counts in both delivery and carryout.
- +2Dividends and buybacks below FCFDividend raised 14.6% (12 years in a row); dividend (USD 245m) plus buybacks (USD 405m) = USD 650m, just below FCF of USD 653m. The share count is falling 2.5% a year.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Score from before the Q3 report on Tuesday 13 October 2026 (before the open); data through 11 Oct 2026. Negative equity (-USD 4.0bn) due to the securitisation model, so P/B and ROE are not meaningful; ROIC is artificially high. New CEO (Joe Jordan) takes over in October.
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