Rankings Pharma & medtech Elicera Therapeutics
Elicera Therapeutics
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−5
- Dilution−5
Strengths
- Net cash and runway+1
- External validation+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 5
- Price
- 1.84 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 117m
- Cash runway
- 32 months
- Cash / debt
- 58.1 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +37%
Bull case
Phase 2a confirms complete response in about 50% after 6-12 months with good safety, and a CAR-T company licenses iTANK with payment on signing. ELC-401 gets a partner or a grant. Then the market cap can go from about SEK 186m to 0.6-1.5bn (3-8x) without large dilution, because cash lasts about 2½ years.
Bear case
The responses do not hold (relapse after 6–12 months), and autologous CAR-T in lymphoma loses commercial interest because of bispecific antibodies and in vivo CAR-T. No licence comes, and ELC-401 must be financed with a new issue in 2027–28 at DKK 1–1.5. The price may fall towards DKK 1 (−60%).
Catalysts
- 27 Nov 2026Q3 report and updated follow-up on durability of responders in phase 1gradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Start and first patients in phase 2a of CARMA (ELC-301) after the Swedish Medical Products Agency's approval in September 2026gradual biostock.se
- 2027Start of phase 1/1b with ELC-401 (iTANK-CAR-T against glioblastoma)gradual carlsquare.com
- no date from the companyPossible non-exclusive licence agreement for iTANK with a CAR-T companybinary elicera.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – cash lasts approx. 2½ years with no debt, but a negative phase 2a result would remove most of the value
Next financingCARMA (18 patients) and the preparation of ELC-401 are financed with the issue from May 2026. Spending rises when phase 2a is running at full pace, and phase 1/1b with ELC-401 (start 2027) probably requires new capital in 2027–28. It could be an issue, an EU grant or a licence agreement for iTANK.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrant series found from the 2026 rights issue (only shares at DKK 3.00). There are small employee incentive programs and no convertible loans.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found. The owners gave subscription commitments for only 0.6% of the issue in 2026. The then CEO Jamal El-Mosleh sold c. 12% of his shares in May 2025 (slightly more than 12 months ago; restructuring into a capital insurance policy) and kept 2.7m shares.
Largest ownersAvanza 9.0%, Di Yu 7.1% (founder, acting CSO), Magnus Essand 7.0% (founder, CSO) and Jamal El-Mosleh about 4–5% (founder, former CEO), as of 31/3-2026 before the issue. Insiders own about 25% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 120m. (2) Hot theme: partial, cell therapy and CAR-T are interesting again, but autologous CAR-T in lymphoma is no longer hot. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, phase 2a data, durability follow-up and start of ELC-401. (4) Major partner: no, only an EIC grant. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes for CARMA, but not for ELC-401. (6) Price near the bottom: partial, −55% in a year and below the issue price of 3.00, but not capitulation (RSI 51).
Why this asymmetryOne of the few Swedish small biotechs with strong clinical data and cash for about 2½ years, traded at about 3x cash and below the latest issue price. The upside however requires the responses to hold and someone to pay for iTANK in a crowded CAR-T market. The management change and the CSO's sick leave weigh it down.
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.60 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 7.25 SEK
- Upside to median
- +178.8%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 6.50 – 8.00 SEK
- 52-week change
- −57%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −10MarginNo product sales. Operating loss of SEK 18.4m on SEK 7.8m in mainly grant income (TTM). The loss has been SEK 17–19m a year since 2022. The company is lean but has never made money.
- −5Quality of growthPhase 1 in CARMA (ELC-301, CD20 CAR-T with iTANK) shows objective response in 10 of 11 patients, and 6 have complete metabolic response, of whom 4 hold at latest follow-up. These are strong figures, but n=11, with no control group and short follow-up. Phase 2a is to treat 18 patients.
- −3MoatiTANK is patented (incl. in Japan) and offered on a non-exclusive license, but no license agreement has been announced. B-cell lymphoma is a crowded field with approved CAR-Ts (Yescarta, Breyanzi), bispecific antibodies and in vivo CAR-T on the way.
- −3Capital allocationFour programs (ELC-301, ELC-401, ELC-100, ELC-201) with 3 employees. The oncolytic virus ELC-100 has been put on hold after phase 1/2a (partial response in 2 of 8). That costs focus, and there is no partner to share the costs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B 3.3 vs 1.9–10.9 in 2021–2025, an intermediate value. Equity is almost only cash, so the price equals approx. 3x cash.
- −2PeersEV of about SEK 127m for a CAR-T program with phase 1 data at this level is low vs international peers, but in line with Swedish biotechs in phase 1 without a partner.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−22 of −35
- −5DilutionThe share count has risen from 19.8m (2023) to 66.7m (+237%), of which +37% with the rights issue at DKK 3.00 in May 2026.
- −3FundingThe issue is to fund all 18 patients in CARMA and the preparation of ELC-401. The phase 1/1b study of ELC-401 in glioblastoma itself starts only in 2027 and is not funded.
- −4Management and key peopleFounder and CEO Jamal El-Mosleh has been replaced by Johan Liwing as of 1/9-2026, and there is a new chair of the board. Founder and CSO Magnus Essand, the scientific engine behind iTANK, is temporarily on sick leave.
- −5Competition and commercializationAutologous CAR-Ts in 3rd-line lymphoma are under pressure from bispecific antibodies and in vivo CAR-T. The company has no partner or licensee for iTANK, even though the technology has been on offer for several years.
- −2Clinical riskPhase 2a with 18 patients must show that the responses hold. Complete response after 1 month says little about durability, and with CAR-T relapses after 6-12 months are common.
- −3Issue history and priceThe rights issue was only 75% subscribed, and subscription commitments from existing owners made up only 0.6% (the rest was guarantees of 74.4%). The share price of 2.785 is below the subscription price of 3.00 and is −55% over a year, so the guarantors' shares create overhang.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Net cash and runwayNet cash was SEK 58.1m with no debt as of 30/6 vs burn of approx. 5.5m per quarter (H1 10.9m). That gives approx. 2½ years of operation, which is unusual for a Swedish small biotech.
- +1External validationEIC Accelerator has paid out a total of about EUR 2.38m to CARMA, and the Swedish Medical Products Agency has approved the transition to phase 2a without dose-limiting toxicity.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
CAR-T biotech with 3 employees and no analysts (forecast 404). 'Revenue' of SEK 7.8m (TTM) appears to be grants (incl. EIC Accelerator, in total about EUR 2.4m) and not sales or licence income. The market cap roughly matches: 66.74m shares × SEK 2.785 = SEK 186m ≈ DKK 122m vs Nordnet's DKK 117m. Cash at 30/9 only comes with Q3 (27/11). New CEO from 1/9-2026.
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