Rankings Commodities & uranium Focus Graphite
Focus Graphite
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Liquidity−9
- Valuation vs history and NPV−6
Strengths
- Non-dilutive government support+3
- Insider ownership+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.93 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 213m
- Cash runway
- 3 months
- Cash / debt
- 1.1 / 0.8m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +39%
Bull case
Canada/USA prioritise non-Chinese graphite, and a strategic partner (carmaker, battery factory or defence) or government project financing covers a large part of the C$237m capex. If the market prices Lac Knife at 0.4–0.5x NPV (about C$115–140m) vs C$46m today, there is room for 2.5–3x – before further dilution.
Bear case
Graphite prices stay low because of Chinese overcapacity, no partner shows up, and the company must keep doing small placements at C$0.20–0.30 to pay general costs. The sharp price rise since 2024 (market cap from C$6m to C$46m) could roll back, so the price falls 50–60%.
Catalysts
- 2026-12-23 (estimated)Annual accounts FY2026 (to 30/9) – cash, going concern and warrant statusgradual stockanalysis.com
- Oct. 2026Canada Investment Summit with Prime Minister Carney, where Lac Knife is included in the 'Investment Deal Book' – possible contact with strategic investorsgradual webnewswire.com
- By 2028-03-31 at the latestCompletion of the NRCan-backed demonstration plant for thermal purification (ultra-pure graphite for batteries and defense)gradual focusgraphite.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – negative equity and very small cash, but the operating costs of the projects are largely state-funded, and a project with an FS and NPV of C$285m makes it likely the company can raise money – though with dilution.
Next financingCash of C$1.13m at 30/6-2026 vs current liabilities of C$3.87m. Operations are carried by government refunds (NRCan GPI up to C$14.06m to March 2028, FLMF C$1.38m) and a CIBC credit of C$2m as a bridge. General costs must, however, be funded with equity or warrant exercise – a new placement is expected within 3–6 months. The Lac Knife construction (C$236.9m) requires a partner or large government funding.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. Incl. 4.65m warrants at C$0.20 (36 months from March 2025, expiring c. March 2028) and finder warrants at C$0.22; warrants from the Q4 2025 placements (c. C$4.3m) are not quantified. Warrants at C$0.20–0.22 are deep in the money (price C$0.415).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider trades found (not systematically checked). Insiders own c. 19.6% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersInsiders approx. 19.6% in total, institutions approx. 1.2% (stockanalysis). Individual major shareholders not found.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – C$46m. (2) Hot theme: yes – critical minerals and non-Chinese graphite, political backing from the Carney government. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – investment summit and demonstration plant, but no dated binary event. (4) Major partner: no – only state support and a bank credit, no industrial partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – only project expenses are covered, not operations. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +42% in a year and approx. 7x from the 2024 bottom.
Why this asymmetryA real feasibility project with state support and political tailwind gives optionality, but the easy money from the 2024 bottom has been made, the balance sheet is negative, and the project has waited for financing for over ten years. Construction requires over five times the market cap.
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.34 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −41%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −12MarginNo revenue; operating result −C$5.4m and net result −C$5.1m TTM. The quarterly loss has risen from c. −C$0.3/−0.5m in H1 2025 to −C$1.95 and −1.22m in the last two quarters.
- −4Project maturity and economicsLac Knife has a feasibility study (2023): capex C$236.9m, after-tax NPV8 C$284.8m, IRR 22.6%. It is a genuine study, but the project has been at 'feasibility stage' since the first FS in 2014 without being financed, and there is no offtake agreement.
- −4Capital allocation and track recordAssets fell from about C$39m to C$0.1m in 2024 (write-down of the project assets), and equity is negative (−C$2.4m). Over ten years of repeated small placements has not brought the project closer to a construction decision.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Valuation vs history and NPVThe market cap has risen from approx. C$6m (Sept. 2024) to C$46m, and the share price is +42% in a year. P/B is negative. EV/NPV approx. 0.16x is normal for an unfunded graphite project, but the NPV is based on 2023 prices, and graphite developers typically trade at a large discount due to Chinese price dominance.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−23 of −35
- −9LiquidityCash of C$1.13m vs current liabilities of C$3.87m at 30/6-2026 (current ratio 0.38) and negative equity. The company bridges with a revolving credit of C$2m from CIBC to prepay expenses that the state only reimburses afterwards.
- −5Dilution and warrantsThe share count has risen 38.8% over a year (110.8m shares). The 2025 placements were done at C$0.10–0.16 with warrants at C$0.20–0.22, which are now deep in the money and will be exercised.
- −6Financing of the constructionCapex of C$236.9m is more than five times the market cap. Without a strategic partner or large government funding, a build requires massive dilution or debt.
- −3Graphite marketFlake graphite prices are driven by Chinese overcapacity; without an offtake agreement, the project's economics depend on Western buyers paying a premium for non-Chinese graphite.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Non-dilutive government supportBinding, non-repayable agreement with NRCan for up to C$14.06m (about 73.6% of eligible costs) for a thermal purification demonstration plant (Oct 2025–Mar 2028) plus C$1.38m from FLMF for road and power to Lac Knife.
- +1
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Graphite developer in Québec: Lac Knife (100%, feasibility study from 2023) and Lac Tétépisca, plus a state-supported demonstration plant for thermal purification of graphite. Fiscal year to 30/9; latest quarter Q3 (to 30/6-2026). Market cap 110.77m shares × C$0.415 = C$46.0m (about DKK 213m, as Nordnet). The graphite price assumptions in the 2023 FS have not been checked against today's prices – the NPV may be too high. The sharp fall in assets in 2024 (from about C$39m to 0.1m) is interpreted as a write-down of Lac Knife based on stockanalysis; the cause has not been read in the accounts. The full warrant register and going concern note have not been checked. No analyst coverage (forecast 404). Insider trades not calculated.
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