Rankings Software, cloud & internet Elliptic Labs
Elliptic Labs
48
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−8
- Funding−7
Strengths
- Cost adjustment+1
- Customer renewal+1
- Net cash+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.27 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 288m
- Cash runway
- 12 months
- Cash / debt
- 59.0 / 13.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +20%
Bull case
The laptop contracts exceed the minimum thresholds, another large laptop maker is joining, and smart glasses/wearables bring new licenses. With NOK 150m revenue in 2027, a high license margin and a cost base of about 75m, EBIT could be 50+ m NOK; at 15x that is about NOK 750m, just under 2x today. A 3-5x requires a large wearables customer.
Bear case
Deliveries remain within prepaid minimum contracts, H2 revenue disappoints again, and the cash is used up during 2027. A new issue at NOK 1.5-2.5 (record low was NOK 2.35 in August) could halve the price.
Catalysts
- H2 2026Management's target of 2026 revenue in line with 2025 (about NOK 101m), i.e. about 71m in H2binary norwaystocks.substack.com
- 19 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: does revenue show that the laptop contracts exceed the minimum thresholds?binary stockanalysis.com
- 2027First revenue from wearables/smart glasses and the Edge AI platform (commercial discussions under way)gradual ellipticlabs.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – only approx. four quarters of cash, but no interest-bearing debt, large customers and a recent successful share issue make a new capital raise more likely than bankruptcy.
Next financingCash lasts about four quarters at spending of NOK 15m per quarter; the savings take full effect from H2 2026. If customers exceed the minimum thresholds and H2 revenue approaches NOK 70m, the company can get close to break-even; otherwise a new targeted issue is likely in H1 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesDirected issue March 2026: about 21m new shares at NOK 2.85 (about NOK 60m gross). Employee options exist, but the number and strike have not been examined. No convertibles found.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail; no insider trades found in the sources read. Insiders own c. 20% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot fully investigated. Insiders about 20% and institutions about 38% according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – DKK 288m. (2) Hot theme: yes – Edge AI and sensors in smart glasses/AI PCs. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – Q3 report 19/11 and H2 revenue target. (4) Major partner: partial – Lenovo and a top-3 smartphone maker are customers, but no partner has invested. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 12 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −64.5% in a year; record low NOK 2.35 in August 2026.
Why this asymmetryTechnical proof and large customers exist, and revenue may jump when the thresholds are exceeded, but the accounting change, customer concentration and about one year of cash mean that a new issue is a realistic scenario. The upside requires a new product category to succeed.
How the score is built
From 100 to 48, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.85 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −72%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin −83% TTM (EBIT −NOK 66m on 80m revenue) and negative gross profit TTM (−NOK 5m). Only 2024 gave a small profit; 2021–2023 and 2025 were losses.
- −8Quality of growthRevenue fell 48% in Q2 2026 to NOK 13m and 37% TTM. Laptop revenue fell from 18.1 to NOK 0.2m even though deliveries rose 33%, because they fall within prepaid minimum commitments. Revenue follows the contract structure, not usage.
- −4Capital allocationCash has fallen from NOK 218m (2021) to 59m, and approx. NOK 60m was raised in a directed issue at NOK 2.85 in March 2026. A deferred tax asset of NOK 87m was written off in 2025 because future profits are uncertain.
- −4MoatPure software solution (ultrasound via the existing microphone/speaker) with a low price per unit; laptop sales are concentrated on Lenovo models, and 'another significant laptop maker' is still missing as proof.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyP/S 5.2 and EV/sales 4.7 are low vs its own history (7–53 in 2021–2025), but on falling revenue, negative gross profit and with no earnings. Forward P/E at stockanalysis (4.8) is based on an older estimate and is not credible.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−18 of −35
- −6Financial reporting and credibilityThe company changed the revenue recognition for two large laptop contracts and restated Q3 2025 revenue from NOK 42.6m to 8.5m; the minimum value was written down to USD 4.7m, and receivables of NOK 7.7m were written down.
- −5Customer concentration and guidanceDependent on one top-3 smartphone maker and primarily Lenovo in laptops. Management expects 2026 revenue in line with 2025 (NOK 101m), which requires about NOK 71m in H2 vs 30m in H1 – a high target that rests on customers exceeding minimum thresholds.
- −7FundingCash was NOK 59m at 30/6-2026 vs spending of about 15m per quarter (operating cash flow -17.6 and -8.5m in Q1 and Q2), i.e. about four quarters of runway. If H2 revenue fails to materialize, a new issue is likely in 2027.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+3 of +15
- +1Cost adjustmentOperating costs (excl. depreciation) fell to NOK 18m from 24m; the cost base has been reduced by about 15% and 25 FTEs, with full cash effect from H2 2026.
- +1Customer renewalContract renewed with an existing top-3 global smartphone maker (eight models), and laptop deliveries rose 33% year over year.
- +1
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Price 3.30 NOK = 2.27 DKK. Market cap checked: 126.3m shares × 3.295 NOK = 416m NOK ≈ 287m DKK, which matches Nordnet's 288m DKK (the share count includes the directed issue in March 2026). Cash at 30/6 and burn (approx. 15m NOK per quarter) are from an independent review of the Q2 report (norwaystocks), as the company's press release does not state the cash. Option programmes, insider trades and largest shareholders have not been examined in detail. No stockanalysis forecast page (404). Ultrasound sensor software for PC/mobile is placed in 'Software, cloud & internet'.
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