Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Estée Lauder
Estée Lauder
61
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−6
- Quality of growth−5
- Multiples vs own history−4
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Pricing power+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 61, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 104.77 USD
- Median analyst target
- 115.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +9.8%
- Analysts
- 30
- Target range
- 70.00 – 129.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +8%
- P/E (trailing)
- 103.6
- Forward P/E
- 29.9
- PEG
- 1.24
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−17 of −30
- −6MarginAdjusted operating margin 11.2% in FY26 (8.0% in FY25) vs about 20% in FY22; even the FY27 target (12.7-13.5%) is far below the pre-crisis level and below L'Oréal.
- −3ROICROIC 5.9% vs WACC 9.3%; in FY22 the return was 28%. The capital base (including the Tom Ford acquisition) is not earning its cost.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue USD 15.0bn vs USD 17.7bn in FY22; organic growth only 3% in FY26 (Americas +1%, EUKEM +1%), and adjusted EPS of 2.51 is under half the FY22 level.
- −3Capital allocationGoodwill and intangible impairments of USD 1.29bn in FY25, the dividend cut from USD 2.64 to 1.40, and the share count is rising (+1.3% in a year).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−10 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 31.5 and EV/EBITDA 17.8 are in the middle of own history (26-45 and 14-30 in FY22-FY26), even though the margin has halved; the price is up 33% since 30 Jun, so the turnaround is already priced in.
- −4FCF yieldFCF yield 3.5% on FY26; FY27 guidance (operating cash flow 1.3-1.4bn, capex about 4% of revenue) gives only about 0.7bn of FCF, or under 2% of the market value of 37.8bn.
- −2PeersForward P/E 32 vs L'Oréal's 28.5 despite a markedly lower margin and return; only EV/EBITDA (17.8 vs 21.2) is lower.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−12 of −35
- −3China and travel retailGrowth in Asia/Pacific (+4%) is primarily driven by Asia travel retail, and China (+9%) is a recovery from a low level; the Hainan and daigou channel has previously caused large declines and remains the biggest single risk.
- −2Restructuring and executionThe PRGP restructuring has cost USD 1.4bn and is expected to end above the upper end of USD 1.5–1.7bn; about 10,000 jobs are being cut. The costs keep coming, and the merger attempt with Puig collapsed in May.
- −2LawsuitsProvision of 84m USD (net of insurance) for settlement of a shareholder class action in FY26, on top of earlier talc settlements.
- −2
- −2Governance and controlThe Lauder family controls the company through B shares with 10 votes: about 114.5m of 361.8m shares give about 82% of the votes.
- −1TariffsExtra tariffs cost USD 102m gross in FY26, only partly offset by USD 38m in refunds; FY27 guidance assumes no deterioration.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Raised guidanceQ4 beat expectations (adjusted EPS 0.39 vs 0.32), and the FY27 adjusted operating margin target was raised from 12.5-13.0% to 12.7-13.5%; EPS guidance $3.10-3.35.
- +2Pricing powerGross margin rose to 75.5% from 74.0% in FY25 and 71.7% in FY24; fragrance grew 10% organically in Q4.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year ends 30 June; Q1 FY2027 reports on 2 Nov 2026, so the figures run to 30 Jun 2026 (FY2026 results 19 Aug). Reported EPS (USD 0.50 TTM) is depressed by restructuring costs (USD 813m in FY26); adjusted EPS was 2.51, and forward P/E is based on adjusted figures. Figures for China and travel retail are only at region level (Asia/Pacific incl. Asia travel retail). Industry: cosmetics does not fit the list; placed under 'Consumer: food, beverage & restaurants' as the closest consumer category. Insider trading has not been examined. 13F purchases earn no points.
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