Rankings Software, cloud & internet Evolution
Evolution
72
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Unlicensed markets and regulation−8
- Quality of growth−5
- Cybercrime in Asia−4
Strengths
- Pricing power and margin+3
- Net cash+2
- Buybacks+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 72, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 842.80 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 766.92 SEK
- Upside to median
- −9.0%
- Analysts
- 17
- Target range
- 531.87 – 1,034 SEK
- 52-week change
- +33%
- P/E (trailing)
- 13.8
- Forward P/E
- 12.8
- PEG
- 1.26
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−9 of −30
- −5Quality of growthGrowth has stalled: revenue is EUR 2,052m TTM vs 2,063m in 2024, and EPS is EUR 5.31 vs 5.91 in 2024. Q2 2026 −1.2% (+2.4% at constant currency), and consensus expects only +1.5% in 2026 after 15–90% annual growth in 2021–2024.
- −2Future segmentRNG (slots) is only 15% of revenue and growing slowly (EUR 288m to 310m since 2024); North America (+9.5%) and Latin America (+26%) are growing but together make up only about 25% and cannot offset declines in Asia.
- −2Capital allocationThe board dropped the 2025 dividend, contrary to its own policy of at least 50% of net profit, without a concrete alternative plan, while cash grew to EUR 1.15bn; the Galaxy Gaming acquisition was never completed and lapsed after two years.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 12.1 and EV/EBITDA 9.9 are at the bottom of its own history (10.6–34.2 and 8.7–38.1 in 2021–2025), but the share price has risen from SEK 630 to 796 in 2026 while the EPS estimate is flat; a low multiple is reasonable for a company without growth and with regulatory risk.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−13 of −35
- −8Unlicensed markets and regulationAsia accounts for 36.8% of revenue (EUR 190.5m in Q2), mostly unregulated or grey markets. In 2026 Evolution settled with the UK Gambling Commission for GBP 4.75m because its games were available on unlicensed sites – a direct threat to licences in regulated markets. At the same time European operators are losing customers to unlicensed sites (channelisation of about 50% in the UK and the Netherlands).
- −4Cybercrime in AsiaAsia fell 8.9% y/y in Q2 because of syndicates copying Evolution's live streams; management describes an endless fight in which security measures also hit legitimate players.
- −1CurrencyReported revenue −1.2% vs +2.4% at constant currency in Q2; earnings are in EUR (and partly USD/Asian currencies), while the stock trades in SEK.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +3Pricing power and marginEBITDA margin 65.9% in Q2 (within the target range despite zero growth), FCF margin 60% and ROIC 31% vs a WACC of 8.2% – by far the highest profitability in the industry.
- +2Net cashCash EUR 1.15bn and practically no debt (net cash about SEK 11.8bn, about 8% of market value).
- +2BuybacksThe share count has fallen 3.2% in a year; buybacks of EUR 584m TTM (and no dividend) are below FCF of EUR 1,236m.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Accounts in EUR, price in SEK. Gaming does not fit the industry list: placed under 'Software, cloud & internet' because Evolution is a B2B supplier of streamed live casino games and RNG software to licensed operators (no own player risk, FCF margin about 60%). Insider selling has been checked: the transfer of 636,290 shares in Feb. 2026 was internal between the founders' companies (Österbahr to Fros Ventures), and the 10.96% holding is unchanged, so no deduction has been made. Q3 report 23 Oct. 2026. Peers (Playtech, Pragmatic Play, Light & Wonder) have not been compared on multiples.
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