Rankings Construction & materials Ferrovial
Ferrovial
73
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−7
- Margin (construction dominates)−3
- Future segment (lower returns on new roads)−3
Strengths
- Pricing power+3
- Buybacks+1
- Net cash outside the projects+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 73, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 51.42 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 60.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +16.7%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 48.50 – 80.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- −3%
- P/E (trailing)
- 60.8
- Forward P/E
- 46.2
- PEG
- 7.13
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −3Margin (construction dominates)Construction accounts for EUR 7.9bn of 9.9bn in revenue (TTM) with an adjusted EBIT margin of only 3.5%, which is also the long-term target; the group's operating margin is 11.5% and net margin 6.2%.
- −2ROICROIC 8.0% TTM vs a WACC of about 7.3% and ROCE only 5.2% – improved from 3–4% in 2021–23, but still only just above the cost of capital.
- −3Future segment (lower returns on new roads)UBS estimates the return on equity on the new I-24 project in Tennessee at about 7% vs. about 20% on Ferrovial's earlier US managed lanes; UBS downgraded to neutral (price target 65 → €59), and the share fell 4.95% (26 Aug 2026). The growth engine – new US concessions – thus appears to give markedly lower returns.
- −2Quality of growthGrowth is almost pure price: 407 ETR's toll revenue rose 20.2% in H1, while traffic rose only 1.8% (and fell 2.7% in Q2); on NT traffic fell 2% and on I-77 5.2%. Group revenue grew only 2.4% TTM.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 45.9 and EV/EBITDA 22.5 are the lowest in 2021–25 (forward 46.6–110, EV/EBITDA 29.8–40.3) after the 22% fall from the February peak, but still 4 times Vinci's forward P/E of 11.6. With analysts' FCF of about €0.94bn for 2026, the FCF yield is only about 2.7% of the market cap of €35bn, and EPS is expected to rise only 3% in 2026.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−6 of −35
- −3JFK New Terminal One delayedThe opening of New Terminal One in New York (about 92% complete) has been pushed to March 2027; Ferrovial has invested its entire equity commitment of €1,041m, and the contractor pays €500,000 a day in penalty but may contest the blame.
- −2Weaker traffic407 ETR traffic fell 2.7% in Q2 (weaker economy, tariff uncertainty, roadworks), I-77 EBITDA fell 5.4%, and Dalaman airport had 8.1% fewer passengers and 13.7% lower EBITDA due to the conflict in the Middle East.
- −1Financing costsEPS of $0.21 in H1 disappointed vs the expected $0.25, partly because financing costs rose due to more debt and inflation-indexed instruments; interest coverage is only 2.7x, and the Altman Z is 1.87.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +3Pricing power407 ETR raised EBITDA 24.4% in H1 on toll increases, and revenue per trip on the US managed lanes rose 11.7–18.9% (NT, LBJ, NTE 35W), well above inflation; 407 ETR holds its concession to 2098.
- +1BuybacksBuybacks (€507m) and dividend (€156m) TTM, in total €663m, are below both FCF (€1.88bn) and analysts' FCF for 2026 (€0.94bn); the share count has fallen 0.55%, and the programme has been extended to March 2027.
- +1Net cash outside the projectsNet cash excluding infrastructure projects of €1,307m and liquidity of €4.7bn at June 2026; construction operating cash flow turned to +€329m and the order book is a record €18.0bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Madrid listing (BME:FER) is used; Ferrovial is a Dutch N.V. also listed on Nasdaq (FER) and is in the process of delisting from Euronext Amsterdam. The consolidated figures understate the value because 407 ETR (43%) is equity-accounted; conversely, stockanalysis' FCF of €1.88bn TTM is lifted by working capital (receivables +€458m) and includes the project companies' cash flows – analysts expect only about €0.94bn in 2026, which is used in the assessment. Consolidated net debt of €6.8bn is mostly non-recourse project debt; excluding infrastructure projects the company has net cash of €1.3bn. EPS expectations are adjusted; reported EPS is €0.85 TTM, and H1 net income (€258m, −52%) fell due to missing gains from the 2025 sale of the UK airports. Impairments of €309m TTM in the cash flow statement have not been examined. Price targets (average €61.40) are only partly updated after the 22% fall from the February peak. The bid for I-285 East (over $10bn) opens in mid-October – not scored. Industry: the value lies mostly in toll roads, but 80% of revenue is construction; 'Construction & materials' chosen as for Vinci. Insider trades not examined.
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