Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Fincantieri
Fincantieri
88
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−6
- Capital allocation and dilution−3
- Multiples vs own history−3
Strengths
- Order book+2
- Raised guidance+1
- Future segment (underwater)+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 88, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 12.70 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 17.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +37.8%
- Analysts
- 10
- Target range
- 15.00 – 20.50 EUR
- 52-week change
- −43%
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.7
- Forward P/E
- 18.6
- PEG
- 0.50
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−13 of −30
- −6MarginOperating margin 4.4% and net margin 2.2% TTM; EBITDA margin 7.6% in H1 2026 and guidance of about 7.5% for the year. The gross margin has held at 19–23% since 2021, and the company posted losses in 2022–23.
- −2ROICROIC 8.2% TTM – improved from 2–5% in 2021–24, but only just above the WACC of 7.2%; interest coverage is 2.35x.
- −2Quality of growthRevenue was flat in H1 2026 (€4,580m vs €4,576m); naval defence fell 42%, and growth in the underwater segment must now come primarily from acquisitions. Full-year guidance is €9.3–9.4bn (about +5%).
- −3Capital allocation and dilutionCapital increase in February 2026 with 32.6m new shares at €15.32 (about €500m, about 10% dilution) – a few years after a rights issue of about €400m in 2024 – to buy four underwater companies for about €600m. The price is now about €12, a good 20% below the issue price.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 17.0 vs 7.6–52.5 in 2021–25 (median 27.2) and EV/EBITDA 9.4 vs 11.0–15.8 – lowest in the period after a share price fall of 43% in a year. P/B 2.6 vs 1.2–5.5. But a P/E of 17 on a net margin of 2% is not cheap in absolute terms; Leonardo trades at forward 18.8.
- −1FCF qualityFCF yield 10% TTM (€414m, €380m after leases), but the cash flow is driven by working capital: trade payables +€427m and receivables +€183m TTM. Without working capital, FCF is about half as large.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−9 of −35
- −3Constellation and the USThe US Navy cancelled four Constellation frigates at Fincantieri Marinette Marine, the programme is being redefined with shifted revenue, and order intake fell 58% to €6.1bn in H1 2026 (€14.7bn the year before).
- −2Customer concentration (cruise)Cruise ships accounted for €2,439m of H1 revenue of €4,580m and are spread across a handful of shipping groups; €30.9bn of the total order backlog of €73.9bn is 'soft backlog' (options and letters of intent).
- −2Debt and interestDebt/EBITDA 3.95x and interest coverage 2.35x (stockanalysis, incl. construction loans); interest paid €148m TTM vs a net result of €191m.
- −1Asbestos casesRecurring costs for asbestos cases of €15m in H1 2026 (€17m the year before).
- −1Sector sentiment and defence demandThe share fell 3.61% on 9 September on a Goldman Sachs report sceptical about future demand for weapons, and has recovered only a small part; the share has fallen from over EUR 20 earlier in 2026 to below 12.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Order bookFirm order book of €43.0bn (+4.7% in H1) and total workload of €73.9bn – about 8 times 2025 revenue – with 92 ships and deliveries through 2039.
- +1Raised guidance2026 guidance raised after Q1 (May 2026) and confirmed after H1: EBITDA €700–710m and net result €140–180m.
- +1Future segment (underwater)Underwater grew 29.9% organically to €356m in H1 with an EBITDA margin of 17.0% and a record contract with Saudi Arabia for lightweight torpedoes.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Industrial: no category fits exactly – cruise ships are over half of revenue, naval vessels and underwater systems the rest; 'Defence, aerospace & space' was chosen as the nearest. Stockanalysis' gross debt (€2.5bn) includes construction loans; the company's own adjusted net debt was €756m at 30/6 (1.0x EBITDA) after the capital increase, and customer prepayments on cruise ships have not been deducted from cash – so no credit has been given for the balance sheet. The share count has in fact risen (capital increases of about €389m in 2024 and about €485m in February 2026 are visible in the cash flow); stockanalysis' −41% in 2024–25 is distorted by a reverse split. Forward P/E is based on adjusted EPS (2026E €0.55, company guidance €140–180m net result). State-owned CDP controls the majority (float about 41%) – mentioned, not scored. Analysts' price targets (median €18) were last updated in July, before the September drop. Q3 comes 12/11.
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