Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Leonardo
Leonardo
88
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−7
- Margin−3
- Portfolio: Aerostructures and space−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Order intake+2
- Credit rating+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 88, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 51.68 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 69.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +33.5%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 55.00 – 82.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +2%
- P/E (trailing)
- 26.5
- Forward P/E
- 19.6
- PEG
- 0.85
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−8 of −30
- −3MarginOperating margin 9.0% and net margin 5.5% TTM; the EBITA margin (ROS) rose to 7.6% in H1 2026 and is guided to 10.0% for the year. Clearly improved from about 7% in 2021–24, but still below Thales (12.6–12.8% adjusted) and far from Rheinmetall (about 19%).
- −1ROICROIC 10.0% TTM vs 12.7% in 2025; down after the IDV acquisition, and the 8–10% level in 2021–24 is only mediocre for a defence group in the middle of a rearmament cycle.
- −3Portfolio: Aerostructures and spaceAerostructures (mainly Boeing 787 parts) continue to generate significant losses – only about EUR 50m less than a year earlier – and breakeven is not expected until 2028; the business depends on Boeing raising the 787 rate from 8 to 10 per month. The space joint venture Thales Alenia Space had a net loss of EUR 14m in H1.
- −1Quality of growthRevenue rose 12% to €10bn in H1, but about €0.4bn came from the acquired Iveco Defence Vehicles; helicopters (about 29% of revenue) grew only 4%. Organic growth is therefore closer to 7–8%, and full-year revenue of €22.1bn was not raised.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 18.8 vs 5.6–22.6 in 2021–25 (median 10.9); EV/EBITDA 12.6 vs 6.2–13.6 (median 8.9); P/B 2.6 – in line with the top (0.56–2.64). The share price has risen fivefold since 2022, so the multiple has re-rated far above its history; peers: Thales forward 19.5.
- −1FCF yieldFCF yield 3.9% TTM (€1.11bn) and about 4.8% on the raised FOCF guidance of €1.37bn vs a market cap of €28.4bn; P/FCF 25.7.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−8 of −35
- −3Macro, customers and peace negotiationsThe share has fallen about 13% from the August peak of over EUR 59 on fears of a peace deal in Ukraine; the Italian state is both the largest customer and the main shareholder, and management could not say whether Italian SAFE funds for land systems will become available.
- −2Acquisitions and integrationSeveral simultaneous transactions: IDV (€1.6bn, closed April 2026), DRS's purchase of RAFT (about €400m), a joint venture with Baykar and Rheinmetall and an M&A framework of €1.8bn; net debt rose from €1.25bn at end-2025 to €3.5bn at 30/6, and IDV's supply chain has previously been flagged as a problem.
- −2Order timing and the Middle EastH1 orders included 'jumbo orders' (NMH helicopters, M-346), and management expects slower order intake in H2; activity in the Gulf fell in Q2 due to regional tensions, and the Kuwait programme is delayed.
- −1Regulation and programmes (Bromo, GCAP)The Bromo space alliance with Airbus and Thales awaits the EU competition authorities with an unpredictable timetable, and the timetable for the GCAP fighter jet (2033–2035) is uncertain.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 guidance raised after H1: orders €28.2bn (from €26.2bn), EBITA €2.21bn (from €2.03bn) and FOCF €1.37bn (from about €1.0bn); net debt expected at €2.2bn at year-end.
- +2Order intakeOrder intake rose 44.6% to €16.3bn in H1 2026 (book-to-bill 1.6), and the order book grew 17% to €58.6bn – about 2.7 years of revenue.
- +1Credit ratingMoody's upgraded to Baa2 (positive outlook) in April 2026; S&P BBB and Fitch BBB- both have positive outlooks.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Leonardo steers by EBITA and FOCF; forward P/E 18.8 is based on adjusted EPS (2026E €2.39), while reported EPS TTM is €1.95 (trailing P/E 25). FCF is highly seasonal (H1 FOCF −€249m), so net debt at 30/6 (€3.5bn at stockanalysis) is higher than the year-end guidance of €2.2bn; the IDV acquisition (€1.6bn) is included from April. The Italian state (MEF) owns about 30% and appoints management – mentioned, not scored. The NH90 settlement (€113m paid in H1) is concluded and not deducted. The buyback (about €47m) covers only incentive programmes and gives no credit. The price fall of about 13% from the August peak is attributed by the Italian press to peace negotiations over Ukraine, not cancelled orders. Only 5 years of multiple history (2021–25) available. Q3 comes 6/11.
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