Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Safran
Safran
86
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−8
- The Middle East and the aftermarket−4
- FCF yield−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 86, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 288.20 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 351.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +22.0%
- Analysts
- 22
- Target range
- 310.00 – 410.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- −6%
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.9
- Forward P/E
- 25.2
- PEG
- 0.96
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−3 of −30
- −2Weak segment (Aircraft Interiors)The cabin business (seats, cabins, about 9% of revenue) had an operating margin of only 3.7% in H1 2026 vs 24.5% in Propulsion, and management is still struggling to make it cash-flow positive – several years after the Zodiac acquisition.
- −1Capital allocation (share count)The share count has risen 0.97% over a year even though own shares worth EUR 1.56bn (TTM) were bought; buybacks have thus mainly neutralised dilution rather than reduced the share count.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−11 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 28.5 (32 on 2026E EPS) vs 24.9–29.7 in 2021–25; EV/EBITDA 21.0 – above the whole range of 13.7–20.8; P/FCF 26.4 vs 16.6–27.7; P/B 9.1 vs 3.5–8.2. Jefferies notes EV/EBIT of around 20, close to the pre-pandemic peak (21–22).
- −3FCF yieldFCF yield 3.8% TTM and about 3.5% on the guided FCF for 2026 (€4.7–4.9bn) at a market cap of €138bn; dividend yield only 1.0%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−11 of −35
- −4The Middle East and the aftermarketJefferies downgraded to 'hold' in the spring and cut expected growth in spare parts sales for 2026 from about 15% to about 5% due to the war in the Middle East; the stock fell 4.8% that day. The Middle East has about 20% of the world's widebody fleet, and the aftermarket is Safran's biggest profit source.
- −3Normalisation of service growthServices sales rose 40% in H1 (USD), but management expects lower growth in H2; LEAP engines for new aircraft are still 'slightly EBIT-negative', so the margin rests on an aftermarket that is at a historically high level.
- −2Supply chainHelicopter engine deliveries are hit by supply constraints, and there is pressure on material costs; management itself cites supply chain capacity as the biggest risk to 2026 guidance.
- −2Tax (French corporate tax surcharge)The French extraordinary corporate tax surcharge costs about EUR 500m in FCF in 2026 (raised from EUR 470m); effective tax rate 31.6%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 guidance raised in July: revenue growth 'mid-teens' (from 'low to mid-teens'), adjusted operating profit EUR 6.4–6.5bn (from 6.1–6.2) and FCF EUR 4.7–4.9bn (from 4.4–4.6), after H1 with an 18.4% margin (+140 bp).
- +2Net cashNet cash of €1.67bn at 30/6-2026 after dividends and buybacks; interest expenses covered 42 times.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Safran steers by adjusted figures (currency hedging and purchase price allocation stripped out). Reported net income swings wildly with the market value of currency derivatives (2025: 7.2 bn €, 2024: −0.7 bn €), so stockanalysis' trailing P/E of 35.8 and EPS decline of −46% are misleading; adjusted EPS H1 2026 was 4.63 €, and analysts' 2026E is about 10.4 €. Adjusted and reported figures are not the same. The share count has risen 1% in a year despite buybacks of about 1.5 bn € annually; the cause (convertible bond/employee shares) has not been examined in detail. Insider trading, US tariffs and the Collins Aerospace acquisition (integration) have not been investigated.
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