Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Dassault Aviation
Dassault Aviation
79
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−5
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Customer concentration and export policy−4
Strengths
- Order book+2
- Falcon demand+1
- Buybacks+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 79, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 300.80 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 350.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +16.4%
- Analysts
- 17
- Target range
- 300.00 – 435.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +9%
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.3
- Forward P/E
- 17.7
- PEG
- 1.03
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30
- −5MarginAdjusted operating margin only 7.9% in H1 2026 (6.3% a year earlier), and reported operating margin has been 6.8–8.7% since 2021, even though revenue has risen from 5.0 to 8.9bn €. A quasi-monopolist in French fighter jets with a 5-year order book should earn more; gross margin has fallen from 39% (2024) to 34%.
- −2Quality of earningsThe Thales stake accounted for €264m of the adjusted net profit of €496m in H1 2026 (53%); the adjusted net margin fell to 11.9% from 13.6%. The core business is thus a low-margin aircraft maker with a large passive holding.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 17.0 vs 12.6–18.9 in 2021–25 (median 15.2); trailing P/E 22.5 vs 13.1–21.9 – above the whole range; P/B 3.4 vs 1.5–3.2 – also above the range. EV multiples are meaningless because of customer funds.
- −3FCF yieldTTM FCF yield of 6.0% (€1.34bn) is driven by prepayments; analysts expect only about €55m FCF in 2026, and FCF was −€1.0bn in 2023 – the cash flow is lumpy and not a stable yield.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−10 of −35
- −4Customer concentration and export policy93% of order intake in H1 2026 was exports, and the Rafale order book (208 aircraft) rests on a few state customers (India, Indonesia, UAE, Egypt, Serbia and others) plus the French state; financing of Ukraine's 16 Rafale remains unclear.
- −3Supply chain and production rampManagement reports persistent delays at subcontractors, some of which are struggling to survive or changing owners; this has slowed both the Rafale ramp-up and Falcon deliveries, and the 2026 target requires 16 Rafale in H2 vs 12 in H1.
- −2Next generation (SCAF/FCAS)The French-German-Spanish fighter programme SCAF has been decided to be stopped after a dispute with Airbus; an alternative French demonstrator programme is only under discussion, so financing of Dassault's next fighter is unresolved.
- −1Order intakeOrder intake fell to €2.9bn in H1 2026 from €8.1bn (base effect from India's 26 Rafale Marine), and the order book fell from 46.6 to €45.4bn.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Order bookOrder book of €45.4bn (208 Rafale and 83 Falcon) – about 5 years of revenue at 2026 guidance of about €8.5bn.
- +1Falcon demand23 Falcon orders in H1 2026 vs 8 a year earlier, and the Falcon 10X flew for the first time on 19 June 2026 (entry into service 2029).
- +1BuybacksBuybacks (€337m) and dividend (€371m) TTM are below FCF (€1,337m), and the share count has fallen 0.7% over a year.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The balance sheet is distorted by customer funds: 'trésorerie disponible' of EUR 10.1bn is matched against net customer prepayments of EUR 14.9bn (30/6-2026), so stockanalysis' net cash (EUR 9.9bn) and EV (EUR 12.5bn, EV/EBITDA 9) are not used – there is no real net cash. More than half of adjusted net profit (EUR 264m of 496m in H1) is the share of Thales' result (about 26.6% ownership, market value about EUR 12bn); the core is therefore traded at about EUR 10bn. Adjusted and reported earnings are not the same. The Dassault family (GIMD) owns about 2/3 and Airbus about 10%; float only about 17m shares and low liquidity – mentioned, not scored. India's 114-aircraft MRFA negotiation and Ukraine's 16 Rafale are not contracts yet and give no plus. H2 must deliver 16 Rafale vs 12 in H1.
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