Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Thales
Thales
87
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- Future segment and capital allocation (Cyber & Digital)−4
- Margin−3
Strengths
- Order intake+2
- Raised guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 87, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 230.50 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 290.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +25.8%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 250.00 – 335.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- −7%
- P/E (trailing)
- 31.8
- Forward P/E
- 20.0
- PEG
- 0.79
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30
- −4Future segment and capital allocation (Cyber & Digital)Cyber & Digital (EUR 3.8bn, built on Gemalto and the acquisition of Imperva for EUR 3.5bn in 2023) grew only 0.4% in H1 2026; digital identity was flat, payment cards are under pressure on both volume and price, and the segment's adjusted EBIT fell. Revenue has fallen from EUR 4.0bn in 2024.
- −3MarginAdjusted EBIT margin 12.5% in H1 2026 and guidance 12.6–12.8% for the year; reported operating margin 10.4% TTM and net margin 6.6%. Improved from 7.5% in 2021, but still modest for a defence electronics group in the middle of a rearmament cycle (Rheinmetall targets about 19%).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 19.5 vs 11.5–21.9 in 2021–25 (median 15.7); EV/EBITDA 13.4 vs 9.1–16.8 (median 12.1); P/B 5.8 – close to the top of the 2.4–5.9 range. Down 13% in a year, but still clearly above the median from before the defence boom.
- −1Normalised FCF yieldTTM FCF yield of 8.6% is prepayment-driven; on analysts' 2026E FCF (€2.4bn) and market cap of €46.4bn the yield is about 5.2%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−9 of −35
- −3Corruption investigationThe UK SFO and French PNF are jointly investigating four Thales units for bribery in connection with a contract in Asia (Indonesia); the case has been open since November 2024 and could result in fines and exclusion from tenders.
- −2Space and satellitesTwo cancelled geostationary satellites cost €153m in revenue in H1 2026 and pulled Aerospace growth down to 2.1%; management says the GEO market 'remains under pressure', and the IRIS² timeline is uncertain.
- −2Cash flow sustainabilityNet debt fell from €1.6bn to €0.5bn in half a year, mainly via working capital and prepayments; management warns that H2 FCF will not reach the H1 level, and prepayments may reverse when deliveries arrive.
- −2Macro and customersDefence is 57% of revenue and growing 13%, so the case rests on European defence budgets; the French state is both the largest customer and the main shareholder. A ceasefire in Ukraine or budget pressure would hit both volume and the multiple.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Order intakeOrder intake rose 22% organically to €12.5bn in H1 2026; Defence +28% with 13 large contracts over €100m (6 the year before).
- +1Raised guidanceBook-to-bill guidance raised to over 1.1 (from over 1.0) and FCF conversion to 100–110% of adjusted net profit (from 95–100%); sales and margin maintained.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Thales manages on adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS (purchase price allocation stripped out); reported EPS TTM is €7.26 vs. analysts' adjusted 2026E of €10.8, so trailing P/E 31 overstates the price. TTM FCF of €4.0bn (FCF yield 8.6%) is inflated by prepayments and working capital in H1 (€1.8–1.9bn vs. €0.5bn); analysts expect about €2.4bn FCF in 2026. The French state (about 26.6%) and Dassault Aviation (about 26.6%) together control over half of the shares (float about 44%) – mentioned, not scoring. The space cooperation with Airbus and Leonardo (Bromo) and the Exail acquisition have not been assessed. Q3 revenue comes 23/10.
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