Rankings Transport & logistics Finnair
Finnair
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−5
- Moat−5
- Fuel and the Middle East war−4
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Reduced debt+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.32 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 3.45 EUR
- Upside to median
- −20.1%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 2.90 – 3.80 EUR
- 52-week change
- +51%
- P/E (trailing)
- 6.7
- Forward P/E
- 10.9
- PEG
- 0.29
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−17 of −30
- −5MarginOperating margin only 5.0% and net margin 3.2% (TTM) – and that is a record period; in 2025 operating margin was 1.6% and in 2024 3.4%. Gross margin 16%. Even in a good year there is very little room for fuel and wage increases.
- −3ROICROIC 11.9% TTM, but only 2.7% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2024; ROCE 6.8%. The return on capital is low and swings sharply with the cycle.
- −5MoatFinnair's historical advantage – the short route between Europe and Asia via Helsinki – is gone for as long as Russian airspace is closed. Middle East revenue has fallen from 203 m EUR (2024) to 63 m (TTM), and Asia revenue of 1.2 bn is still below the pre-2020 level.
- −2Quality of growthRevenue grew only approx. 2% a year in 2023–2025 (2.99 → EUR 3.11bn). The 16% jump in Q2 2026 is compared with a quarter hit by strikes in 2025, so part of the growth is recovery, not structural progress.
- −2Capital allocationThe capital raises after 2020 and capital loans from the state diluted shareholders massively (dilution of 604% in 2023 and 106% in 2024 according to stockanalysis), followed by a 1:100 reverse split in 2024.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 11.2 vs 5.9 (2024) and 9.7 (2025) – more expensive than its own forward history after +48% in a year. P/B 1.13 vs 0.72–1.41. EV/EBITDA 2.4 vs 4.5–5.5 looks cheap, but is lifted by the seasonal cash at 30 June.
- −1FCF yieldThe FCF yield of 40% (TTM) is misleading: analysts expect FCF of only 158 m EUR in 2026 vs 365 m TTM, because seasonal prepayments and higher capex pull it down.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−15 of −35
- −4Fuel and the Middle East war2026 guidance assumes no significant disruptions in fuel supply; the prolonged war in the Middle East is an explicit risk. 76% of H2 fuel is hedged, and a 10% move in fuel price equals about EUR 18m.
- −4Debt and balance sheetDebt EUR 1.75bn against equity of only EUR 810m (debt/equity 2.2), interest cover 2.2x and Altman Z-score 0.86. Cash is seasonally high because of prepaid tickets.
- −2Labour disputesH1 2025 was marked by months of strikes among pilots and other employees, which caused a loss. There is labour peace now, but the collective agreements have raised costs, and the risk of new conflicts is real in a strongly unionised company.
- −2State ownershipThe Finnish state owns about 56%, and the free float is only about 90m of 205m shares. Political considerations (routes, jobs) may weigh heavier than minority shareholders' interests.
- −3Fleet renewalThe narrowbody fleet must be renewed. So far there are only letters of intent for 6 used A320ceo aircraft for delivery in 2027. An actual renewal requires large investments, which the thin margin and the balance sheet must carry.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceRevenue guidance for 2026 raised after a strong H1 to EUR 3.4–3.5bn. Comparable operating profit in Q2 was a record EUR 78.4m.
- +1Reduced debtNet debt has fallen from EUR 1.11bn (2023) to 0.73bn (end of 2025) and 0.30bn (June 2026, seasonally high cash).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Airline: the cash balance of 1.45 bn EUR at 30 June is seasonally inflated by prepaid tickets, so net debt (−303 m) understates the real debt outside the summer. The debt of 1.75 bn includes leasing. Set as cyclical (fuel prices and ticket prices drive earnings), in line with Norwegian Air Shuttle. Only 2–4 analysts cover the stock. The large swings in share count in 2023–2024 are due to a capital raise and a 1:100 reverse split (March 2024). Nordnet line: Helsinki (FIA1S).
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