Rankings Pharma & medtech Heron Therapeutics
Heron Therapeutics
43
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Patents and generic competition−8
- Margin−7
- Debt and covenants−7
Strengths
- Commercial platform in growth+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.07 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 392m
- Cash runway
- 36 months
- Cash / debt
- 42.7 / 148.4m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +20%
Bull case
A sale of the company or a partner buying the commercial platform: EV is USD 165m (1.1x revenue). If a buyer pays 1.5-2x sales (EV 225-300m), equity becomes USD 120-195m = 2-3x the price. If generic CINVANTI is delayed, and ZYNRELEF/APONVIE keep growing 35-70%, the company can reach positive EBITDA and avoid dilution.
Bear case
Generic CINVANTI takes 40–60% of sales (about 35–50 m USD a year), covenants are breached, and the debt of 148 m – larger than the entire market cap – leads to a restructuring in which the creditors take the company. At the same time a Nasdaq delisting could send the stock to OTC. The stock could go toward zero.
Catalysts
- 3 Nov 2026Q3 report with terms of the Long Grove licence and update on CINVANTI and the strategic processgradual stockanalysis.com
- 22 Dec 2026Nasdaq deadline to reach USD 1; otherwise application for 180 more days in exchange for a reverse splitbinary tipranks.com
- No dateOutcome of the review of strategic alternatives (sale, merger or refinancing)binary finance.yahoo.com
- No dateClarification of the timing of generic CINVANTI after the ruling in June 2026binary finance.yahoo.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – debt of about 2.5 times market cap, equity of only USD 6.9m, a threatened main product and a strategic process with no guarantee
Next financingOperations burned only about USD 2m per quarter in H1 2026 (operating cash flow −2.2 and −1.5m), but repayments of 13.5 + 4m to Hercules lower cash to about 24m. Runway about 36 months on current operations, but falls sharply if generic CINVANTI hits sales. The debt (148m) has to be refinanced or resolved via a sale of the company; the strategic process may end in a transaction where shareholders get little.
Warrants & convertiblesConvertible bonds carried at USD 33.9m (long-term, maturing 2030/2031 after the refinancing of the 2026 loan in Q3 2025); conversion price not examined, but probably far above the price. Share-based compensation about USD 3m per quarter. No ATM program found (not checked in the S-3).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found (Form 4 not reviewed in detail); insiders own c. 1%.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail; institutions own c. 49% and insiders c. 1% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 60m. (2) Hot theme: no – post-operative nausea and pain treatment. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – strategic process and clarification on generics, no clinical data. (4) Major partner: no – only a license from the small Long Grove. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – debt of 148m and covenants that must be met. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −75% in a year and close to the 52-week low.
Why this asymmetryRevenue of USD 151m makes a sale realistic, but the debt stands ahead of shareholders in the queue, and the main product is threatened by generics. An acquisition could give 2-3x, while a restructuring could wipe out the stock.
How the score is built
From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.30 USD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −75%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −7MarginThe gross margin has fallen from 72% (Q1 2025) to 62% (Q2 2026), the operating margin was −5% in Q2 and −14% in Q1, and the TTM result is −USD 34m on 151m in revenue. The company has an accumulated deficit of about USD 1.95bn.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue is flat (+1% TTM, Q2 +1.3%). The largest product CINVANTI (58% of sales) fell 9.7% to USD 21.8m; growth in ZYNRELEF (+35%) and APONVIE (+74%) is too small to offset it. Q2 missed expectations (37.7 vs 42.1m).
- −4MoatThe products are new formulations of old generic drugs (aprepitant, bupivacaine/meloxicam) competing with cheap generics and other anti-nausea drugs; limited pricing power.
- −5Capital allocationThe share count rose 20.5% over a year (issue of about USD 20m in Q3 2025), inventory has grown to USD 90.6m (inventory turnover 0.7 times a year), and equity is only USD 6.9m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and peersEV/revenue 1.1 vs 2-3 in recent years and P/S 0.39; cheap vs its own history, but 64% of EV is debt, P/B is 10, and there is no earnings to measure against. The low multiple reflects real bankruptcy risk.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−27 of −35
- −8Patents and generic competitionA Delaware court ruled in June 2026 on a case about CINVANTI patents to Heron's disadvantage; timing and terms of generic competition against the product, which accounts for 58% of revenue, are unclear, and guidance was withdrawn.
- −7Debt and covenantsDebt of USD 148m against a market cap of about 60m and cash of 42.7m. The Hercules loan was renegotiated with repayments of up to 17.5m and new covenants through December 2027; cash falls to about 24m after the repayments.
- −5Listing riskNasdaq notice 25/6-2026: the price has been below USD 1 since May; deadline 22/12-2026, then possibly 180 more days in exchange for a promise of a reverse split. At USD 0.31 at least a 1:4 split is required; otherwise the share risks going to OTC, where Nordnet does not trade.
- −4Execution and strategic uncertaintyGuidance (USD 173–183m in sales, 10–20m in adjusted EBITDA) was withdrawn in August, the sales-force expansion has been paused, and the company is exploring strategic alternatives with no timetable or guarantee of a transaction.
- −3Price risk and short interestThe price has fallen 75% over 52 weeks, and 22.9% of shares are sold short (21 days to cover).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Commercial platform in growthThe acute portfolio grew 44% to USD 15.3m in Q2 (ZYNRELEF +35%, APONVIE +74%), and the company has received a new license on several products from Long Grove (September 2026) for its sales force.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Specialty pharma with revenue (USD 151m TTM), but debt of USD 148m vs a market cap of about 60m; cash of 42.7m at 30/6 is before repayments of 13.5m plus a possible 4m in September (about 24m after); conversion price and maturity of the convertible loans and the Hercules covenants have not been examined in detail; the patents and the date of generic CINVANTI are unclear; no analysts on stockanalysis (forecast 404); terms of the Long Grove licence only come in the Q3 report
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
