Rankings Semiconductors Intel
Intel
43
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−32
- Dilution−7
- Margin−6
Strengths
- Execution+2
- Insider buying+2
- Foundry customers+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 59.97 USD
- Median analyst target
- 88.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +46.7%
- Analysts
- 49
- Target range
- 70.00 – 160.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +50%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 43.1
- PEG
- 0.57
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−18 of −30
- −6MarginOperating margin 7.8% TTM (11.1% GAAP in Q2) and gross margin 38.9% vs 27.9% and 55.5% in 2021. The −19.8% net margin is distorted by a $12.5bn non-cash revaluation of the CHIPS shares held in escrow for the government, so operations are not loss-making. The margin is still far below both its past and its peers.
- −5ROICROIC 3.4% TTM vs 20.4% in 2021 and about 0% in 2023–25, far below a WACC of 15%. The huge fab capital does not yet earn a return.
- −4Future segmentIntel Foundry had an operating loss of $2.1bn in Q2 on $5.8bn of revenue, and only $293m came from external customers. Risk production on 14A is only expected in H2 2027.
- −3Capital allocationCapex has been raised to over $20bn in 2026 (+about $3bn) and is to be 'significantly higher' in 2027. Capacity is being built before external volumes are secured and funded with new equity; analysts expect FCF of −$1.3bn in 2026.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−32 of −35
- −32Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 69 vs its own forward history of 14–29 (2021–24) and 85 (2025); P/S 10.7 vs 1.7–3.9 (2021–25); EV/EBITDA 37 vs 6.3–24.8; P/B 6.7 vs 0.8–2.2; P/FCF 215. The stock is +227% over 52 weeks and trades at two to three times its own history on every measure.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−16 of −35
- −7DilutionThe share count has risen 13.3% in a year (the government about 10%, Nvidia, SoftBank). On 10/8 came a share issue that was upsized to $20bn at $95 per share (about 210m shares), and more CHIPS shares are held in escrow for the government.
- −3CompetitionIntel's share of the x86 CPU market fell below 70% in Q2 (AMD is winning), and Apple has told developers that support for Intel Macs may end.
- −2Supply and macroManagement reports serious bottlenecks in wafers, memory, substrates and advanced packaging, and the PC market is expected to fall at a low double-digit rate in 2026. Growth has been pushed towards the end of Q3 and into Q4.
- −2DebtGross debt $50.5bn and net debt $20.6bn at 30/6 (before the $20bn share issue); interest cover 3.9x and Altman Z 2.23.
- −2GovernanceThe US government owns about 10% and has political influence on the strategy. The escrow shares for the Commerce Department create large accounting swings: the higher the share price, the larger the booked loss.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +2ExecutionQ2 revenue was $16.1bn (+25% y/y), $1.8bn above the midpoint of guidance; the seventh quarter in a row above expectations. DCAI grew 59% with a 40% operating margin, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.42 vs guided $0.20.
- +2Insider buyingCEO Lip-Bu Tan bought 105,263 shares for $10m at $95 on 11/8 (via a family trust, at the offering price).
- +2Foundry customersMicrosoft has a multi-year 18A wafer agreement, and according to the media Apple has agreed to have the M7 made on 18A-P from the end of 2027 (not confirmed by the companies).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The GAAP loss (−$11bn in Q2) is due to a non-cash $12.5bn revaluation of the CHIPS shares held in escrow for the government; operations are profitable. The share is +227% over one year with a forward P/E of 69, and the median price target is below the price. The share count is +13% and does not include the $20bn issue from August. The Apple deal on 18A-P has only been reported in the media.
Also in Semiconductors
The highest scores in the same industry.
