Rankings Machinery & automation Hexagon Purus
Hexagon Purus
25
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and equity−14
- Margin−10
- FCF yield−8
Strengths
- Strategic owners+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 2.92 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 124m
- Cash runway
- 15 months
- Cash / debt
- 308.0 / 2,386.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +13%
Bull case
The convertibles are restructured so that creditors (Mitsui, Hy24, Hexagon Composites) take a large part of the debt at a price above the current one, costs are cut by a further NOK 500m, and infrastructure keeps growing. With an EV of NOK 2.3bn and a market value of only NOK 184m, even a small value shift from debt to equity could lift the stock 3–5x.
Bear case
About NOK 2bn of debt vs NOK 41m of equity: a conversion at a low price or a forced restructuring would leave current shareholders with a few percent of the company – the price could fall 80–100%.
Catalysts
- 20 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report: cash, order intake and any news on the convertiblesgradual stockanalysis.com
- No date (2026–2027)'Structural measures' for the convertible bonds – decide how much of the company shareholders keepbinary manilatimes.net
- Q1 2028Maturity of the first convertible loanbinary manilatimes.net
Risk of going to zerohigh – an equity ratio of 1%, debt >10x market value, falling revenue and continuous losses; analysts have talked about zero shareholder value in several scenarios.
Next financingThe cash fell NOK 56m in Q2, but only thanks to released working capital (underlying about NOK 100m). The company says 'at least 12 months'. A restructuring of the convertibles (debt to shares and/or a new share issue) should be expected in 2027 at the latest, before maturity in Q1 2028.
Warrants & convertiblesTwo convertible bond loans totalling about NOK 1,958m (book value), maturing Q1 2028 and Q1 2029; holders include Mitsui, Hy24 and Hexagon Composites. Conversion prices not found, but they are well above the current price after −75% in a year. The company is evaluating 'structural measures' – a conversion at a low price would dilute massively.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked on Newsweb). Insiders own 0.35%.
Largest ownersHexagon Composites is the largest owner (2026 stake not confirmed); Mitsui and Hy24 are strategic shareholders/convertible holders. Institutions about 29%; free float about 25m of 42.85m shares.
Circio check(1) Small market value: yes – DKK 124m. (2) Hot theme: no – hydrogen mobility is out of fashion. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, but mainly negative – restructuring the convertibles is binary and usually hurts shareholders. (4) Large partner: yes – Mitsui, Hy24 and Hexagon Composites. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – about 12–15 months and NOK 2bn of debt. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −75% in a year, RSI 21.
Why this asymmetryMarket cap is low, but it is the debt, not the share, that owns the value. The most likely outcome is a debt conversion that dilutes heavily; daily turnover of only DKK 11k also makes it hard to exit. Upside exists only in an uncertain negotiation scenario.
How the score is built
From 100 to 25, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.29 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −80%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−30 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin −66% and profit margin −109% (TTM); operating losses every year 2021–2026 (−NOK 325m to −942m). The gross margin has fallen to 38% from 42% in 2024.
- −7Quality of growthRevenue fell 39% in 2025 (1,876 → 1,144 NOK m), and Q2 2026 was NOK 146m, −25% y/y (−6% adjusted for divestments) due to weaker buses and industrial gas. The order book is NOK 523m.
- −5Future segmentHydrogen mobility (buses, trucks) is shrinking, and the battery segment (BVI) had only NOK 16m of revenue and −NOK 21m of EBITDA in Q2. Growth in infrastructure/distribution is too small to carry the group.
- −5Capital allocationCapacity investments of NOK 430–440m a year in 2023–2024 were followed by write-downs of NOK 355m and 215m (2024–2025), the sale of the US business and a halving of the workforce. Raised NOK 1.5bn in shares and NOK 1.8bn in convertibles in 2022–2024; equity is now NOK 41m.
- −3MoatNo documented pricing power: gross margin below 40% on composite cylinders, and revenue falls as soon as bus customers hold back. Dependent on a few OEM programmes.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−14 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyP/S 0.16 looks cheap, but EV of NOK 2.26bn is almost all debt: EV/sales 2.0 vs 2.3 in 2024–2025 – on revenue that has fallen sharply. P/B 4.5 on equity of only NOK 41m.
- −8FCF yieldNegative free cash flow in all years; −NOK 212m TTM equals −115% of the NOK 184m market cap, and Q2 was only −NOK 47m thanks to NOK 57m of working capital released.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−27 of −35
- −14Debt and equityTwo convertible loans totalling NOK 1,958m fall due in Q1 2028 and Q1 2029 – over 10 times the market value. Equity ratio 1% (NOK 41m); management is 'evaluating structural measures' for the convertibles. SEB: 'drowning in debt'.
- −5DilutionThe share count rose 13% over the last year and 42% in 2025 (share issue in 2024); a debt conversion or restructuring would massively dilute existing shareholders.
- −5LiquidityThe cash fell from NOK 364m to 308m in Q2; the company states only 'at least 12 months' of liquidity under current plans. Sparebank 1 Markets has talked about zero shareholder value in several scenarios without cost cuts of NOK 500m.
- −3Order bookThe order book of NOK 463–523m is described as 'far too thin to cover the current costs'.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Strategic ownersMitsui has accepted an additional lock-up on its convertibles until December 2028/January 2029, and Mitsui, Hy24 and Hexagon Composites are behind the capital structure – increases the chance of a negotiated solution rather than bankruptcy.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). 10:1 share consolidation registered 20/5/2026 (42.85m shares); historical prices on stockanalysis are adjusted. stockanalysis' TTM revenue (NOK 1,133m) includes the divested US business and one-off gains; the current level is about NOK 146m per quarter (Q2 2026). No stockanalysis forecast page (404). Conversion rates and the exact ownership stake of Hexagon Composites in 2026 were not found. No specific reason found for the price fall in August–September (50-day average NOK 7.46 vs price 4.24). Hydrogen/tank solutions do not fit the list cleanly; chose 'Machinery & automation' (pressure tanks and distribution modules for hydrogen/gas; alternative: Cars & car parts).
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