Rankings Utilities & power X-energy
X-energy
25
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs IPO price and peers−24
- Margin−8
- Execution and timeline−6
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Validation+2
- Regulatory milestones+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 25, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 10.37 USD
- Median analyst target
- 34.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +232.7%
- Analysts
- 10
- Target range
- 8.00 – 57.00 USD
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−15 of −30
- −8MarginGross margin −65% and operating margin −185% (TTM): direct costs ($86.7m) exceeded revenue incl. grants ($54.6m) in Q2. Adjusted EBITDA was −$70.5m in Q2 vs −$35.3m a year earlier, so the loss has grown faster than revenue. The loss is counted here and not again under ROIC.
- −4Quality of growthGrowth of +79% TTM is almost entirely cost reimbursement: $47.7m of $54.6m came from the DOE in Q2, and commercial revenue was only $5.3m. $91m of $98m in H1 is cost-based contracts. The real business (licences, project services and fuel) only starts when the first reactors arrive in the early 2030s.
- −3Business model/moatThe asset-light model lets customers carry the risk of a completely new (first-of-a-kind) reactor type. Piper Sandler therefore sees the model as weaker and harder to finance than Oklo's build-own-operate. If Dow does not make an investment decision, X-energy must find a new demonstration customer itself to keep the ARDP support.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−29 of −35
- −24Multiples vs IPO price and peersPrice $14.43, i.e. −37% vs the $23 IPO price and −61% vs the $37.10 peak; no own history. EV/revenue is 28 TTM vs Centrus 4.6. NuScale (218), Oklo (3,671) and Nano Nuclear (1,350) are higher, but all peers are down 54–79% over 52 weeks. P/B is 2.3 vs NuScale 1.6, Oklo 2.1, NNE 1.4 and Centrus 3.3; equity is mainly cash. An EV of $4.26bn pays for an option on reactors that are not licensed, on revenue with a negative gross margin.
- −5EV vs government grants and order bookThe EV of $4.26bn is about 2 times total public ARDP support of up to $2.15bn. The pipeline of 144 reactors/11.5 GWe depends on customers exercising all their options; no customer has made a final investment decision.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−26 of −35
- −6Execution and timelineThe NRC is expected to decide the construction permit for Dow's Long Mott (Seadrift) in Q1 2027; the environmental assessment (FONSI) came in May 2026. Dow will only make an investment decision in 2028 at the earliest, though, and the first commercial reactor is expected in the early 2030s. Amazon/Energy Northwest's Cascade project is still in pre-application with the NRC with no construction application filed.
- −5ARDP dependence and project costsARDP covers 50/50 of approved costs. The current budget period only runs to March 2027, and each extension requires DOE approval; the period can be at most 10 years in total. Up to 30/6, $546.7m has been reimbursed. The 2023 cost estimate was $4.75–5.75bn for the whole ARDP project vs up to $2.15bn of public money, so Dow and X-energy must fund the rest themselves.
- −4Cash flow and cash runwayFCF −$440m TTM. In H1 operating cash flow was −$164.6m and capex $106.3m ($52.3m of it reimbursed), i.e. a net burn of about $219m in six months. Liquidity of $1.9bn lasts about 4 years at that pace. Management writes, however, that losses may rise and that more capital must be raised to complete the plan (TX-1 to open in H1 2028, TX-2 planned).
- −4Stock-based pay and dilutionStock-based pay was $39.7m in Q2 vs $6.4m a year earlier, equal to 73% of the quarter's revenue; $51.6m TTM. On top come 7.4m unvested restricted shares at the IPO and new option grants to management in June. Warrants produced a fair-value loss of $114m in H1.
- −3Lock-up and share overhangThe lock-up expired early on 1/9/2026 instead of 20/10, because 20/10 fell in a blackout period. The free float is 175m of 406m shares, so a large part of the previously locked shares can now be sold; Ares owns 38m and XERC Holdings 16m. 12.1% of the float is sold short, and the price has fallen from about $19 in early September to $14.43.
- −3GovernanceAn Up-C structure with a Tax Receivable Agreement that gives the former owners 85% of the company's tax savings. The agreement can be accelerated and exceed the real benefit if the company changes control. The board is staggered (three classes), which makes it hard to replace. Founder Kam Ghaffarian controls about 23% of the votes (70.9% of class B); there is only one vote per share in both classes, though.
- −1Management changeJoel Duling, president of TRISO-X, retires on 20/11/2026, just as TX-1 moves from shell to interior fit-out and fuel equipment.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +3Net cashNo debt and $1.9bn of liquidity at 30/6 ($1.15bn cash, $490m short-term and $265m long-term investments), about 32% of market value. The cash comes from the $1.1bn IPO proceeds, though, and is being used up.
- +2ValidationIn August 2026 the DOE pledged up to $1bn of extra ARDP support, bringing public support to up to $2.15bn. Amazon owns 65.8m shares (23% of class A) and targets over 5 GWe of Xe-100 by 2039. The Xe-100 was accepted into the UK's generic design assessment (GDA) with Centrica in September 2026.
- +2Regulatory milestonesIn February 2026 TRISO-X received a 40-year NRC licence (Part 70) for commercial fuel production at TX-1 and TX-2. The NRC's environmental assessment of Long Mott was completed early in May 2026, and the TX-1 shell in Oak Ridge was completed in September 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Newly listed on 24/4/2026 at $23, so there is no own multiple history. T2 rests on the IPO price and peers (NuScale, Oklo, Nano Nuclear, Centrus). Revenue is almost only DOE reimbursement (88% in Q2), and the first reactor sale is at the earliest in the early 2030s. Industry: 'Utilities & power' was chosen over 'Commodities & uranium' because the business is reactor design and licensing for power and steam customers (Dow, Amazon/Energy Northwest, Centrica). TRISO-X makes fuel elements and is not exposed to the uranium price, and there is no production yet. As a reactor supplier the company in reality sits between equipment and utilities. The TTM net loss (−$449m) is distorted by $114m of fair value losses on warrants in H1; operating profit and adjusted EBITDA are used. Up-C structure: 118.9m class B shares (one vote each, without economic rights) can be exchanged for class A. The $5.86bn market value includes both classes. No insider selling has been found after the lock-up expiry, but Form 4 coverage has not been fully reviewed.
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