Rankings Tech hardware & optics Xanadu
Xanadu
26
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs peers (no own history)−32
- Margin−12
- Cash flow and dilution−8
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Production partner+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 26, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.60 USD
- Median analyst target
- 28.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +976.9%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 16.00 – 43.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −77%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−21 of −30
- −12MarginOperating result is −$94.3m TTM on revenue of $7.2m (operating margin −1,309%), and the loss is growing: −$41.7m (2023), −$50.6m, −$69.3m (2025). Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 was −$21.3m vs −$13.4m a year earlier. The 93% gross margin says little, because revenue is mostly consulting and contract work. The loss counts here and not again under ROIC.
- −6Quality of growthQ2 revenue fell to 1.5m $ from 2.8m $ in Q1 and consisted primarily of the DARPA Stage B contract. In 2025, 4.2 of 4.6m $ was 'professional services', while compute services gave only 0.4m $. Analysts expect only 9.2m $ in 2026 and +25% in 2027.
- −3Segment of the future and technologyPhotonic approach (GKP qubits): 12 logical GKP qubits demonstrated, but optical loss is still the central obstacle, and the goal of a fault-tolerant quantum data center is not until the end of the decade. The Q2 report gives no date or qubit target for fault tolerance.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−32 of −35
- −32Multiples vs peers (no own history)P/S 164 and EV/Sales 129 TTM; forward P/S 103 on analysts' 2026 estimate ($9.2m). That is twice as expensive as IonQ (EV/Sales approx. 63), which has 30 times the revenue, but cheaper than D-Wave. The market value is $1.18bn for a business with no profit in sight (2027 EPS estimate −$0.55).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−19 of −35
- −8Cash flow and dilutionFCF -$80m TTM. In May 2026 a 'synthetic ATM' was entered with Yorkville for up to $300m (three years); $67.2m has been used (5.5m shares), so about $233m stands ready for new shares, about 20% of market cap. At the same time 293.6m B shares were registered for resale by existing owners (stock -67% pre-market 4/5).
- −5Lock-up and insider salesLock-up expired in September: about 255m shares became free vs about 43m before. CEO Christian Weedbrook sold 4.6m shares for about CAD 32.8m on 22/9, and the stock fell 22% that day (from 7.37 to $5.78; now $3.90).
- −2Governance (share classes)Dual share structure: 251.6m A shares with more votes vs 52.7m traded B shares as of 30/6, so minority shareholders have limited influence.
- −2Customer concentrationRevenue comes primarily from DARPA Stage B, and the risk factors mention concentration in government or state-funded contracts. Stage B is a one-year review with no guarantee of Stage C.
- −2Macro and sentimentThe stock is −62% over 52 weeks and below the SPAC price of $10; RSI 22, and 30% of the free float is sold short.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash $253.6m ($312.8m in cash vs $59.2m debt and leasing) as of 30/6, approx. 21% of the market cap and approx. three years of runway at current FCF.
- +1Production partnerMulti-year partnership with GlobalFoundries (6/10) on volume production of SiN photonics and SNSPD detectors on the 300 mm line in Malta, New York, as the basis for the fault-tolerant demonstrators.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Listed 26/3 2026 via SPAC (Crane Harbor) on Nasdaq and TSX, so there is no own multiple history: T2 is assessed on peers (IonQ EV/Sales about 63, D-Wave about 433) and absolute level. Losses: operating margin -1,309% and FCF -$80m TTM, so P/E and PEG are meaningless. The GAAP result is affected by non-cash revaluations of earn-out shares (-$10.6m in Q2). Two share classes: 251.6m A shares with more votes and 52.7m B shares (the traded class). Only 4 analysts. No numerical guidance. The value of the GlobalFoundries agreement is not disclosed.
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