Rankings Pharma & medtech IRLAB Therapeutics
IRLAB Therapeutics
47
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−9
- Quality of growth−8
- Phase 3 funding−8
Strengths
- Partnership+3
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.18 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 181m
- Cash runway
- 17 months
- Cash / debt
- 95.0 / 18.5m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +61%
Bull case
A licence deal for mesdopetam with, say, USD 20–40m upfront (SEK 200–400m) and milestones would on its own exceed the market value of about SEK 270m; add positive LIFT-PD data in 2027. The value could then reach SEK 0.8–1.2bn = SEK 5–8 per share (3–4x).
Bear case
No partner for mesdopetam after three years of searching, a new CEO has to find a way, and the cash is used up in 2027: a new share issue at about SEK 1 or lower with 50–70% dilution, and the price falls towards SEK 0.8–1.0. Negative LIFT-PD data remove the Otsuka track.
Catalysts
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 reportgradual stockanalysis.com
- 2026 (company target, no exact date)Partner or licence agreement funding phase 3 for mesdopetam (Parkinson's dyskinesia)binary biospace.com
- Q1 2027CEO Kristina Torfgård steps down; new CEOgradual inderes.fi
- Mid-2027First results from LIFT-PD (phase 1b, linepemat/IRL757 for apathy in Parkinson's, Otsuka-funded)binary biospace.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – cash lasts about 17 months, and one programme has partner funding, but the company has spent SEK 780m without a product and depends on continued share issues.
Next financingCash SEK 34m (30/6) + about 61m net from the rights issue (76.5m gross, minus costs and a 5.2m loan repayment) = about 95m pro forma. Burn about 17m/quarter (TTM average; Q2 only 13m thanks to Otsuka funding). Lasts to about H1 2028 for operations, but phase 3 for mesdopetam requires a partner; without a partner a new share issue is likely in 2027 before the Fenja loan matures on 30/11/2027.
Warrants & convertiblesThe June 2026 issue was a pure share issue (no units/warrants found). No convertibles found. Board incentive programme: Janne Backman registered with 1,000,000 at SEK 0.2 (28/7/2026, probably an option premium) – scope and strike not verified.
Insiders, last 12 monthsBoard member James Gamgort bought shares in July 2026 (amount not verified). New chair Janne Backman registered with 1,000,000 at SEK 0.2 on 28/7/2026 (probably incentive options). Major shareholders guaranteed about 81% of the issue. No insider sales found.
Largest ownersAvanza Pension 9.1%, FV Group AB 7.6%, Daniel Johnsson 7.6%, Fjärde AP-fonden 7.2%, Ancoria Insurance 4.5% (borskollen, after the issue – not verified against the share register).
Circio check(1) Yes: market value DKK 181m. (2) No: Parkinson's dyskinesia is not a hot theme. (3) Yes: a partner deal for mesdopetam (target 2026) and LIFT-PD data in mid-2027. (4) Partly: Otsuka/MSRD funds IRL757 to proof of concept, but there is no large partner for the lead asset. (5) No: about 17 months of runway, phase 3 unfunded. (6) Partly: −96% since 2021, but +49% above the SEK 1.20 issue price.
Why this asymmetryA phase 3-ready programme with FDA/EMA acceptance and an Otsuka deal at a market value below SEK 300m gives real upside from a licence deal. But the partner search has dragged on for years, management is changing, and without a deal new dilution is almost certain.
How the score is built
From 100 to 47, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.02 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −16%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −9MarginOperating margin −49% (TTM June 2026) and gross profit almost zero (0.8m of SEK 79m); revenue swings from 6m (2023) to 95m (2024) with partner payments. Losses every year since 2021.
- −8Quality of growthThe lead candidate mesdopetam has been ready for phase 3 since the FDA/EMA dialogue, but phase 3 is not funded and awaits a partner; pirepemat (REACT-PD) has ended without a clear way forward ('next study design being prepared').
- −3MoatIts own ISP platform and patents on several candidates; the Otsuka deal validates the platform, but no candidate is approved, and Parkinson's dyskinesia has competing treatments (amantadine ER).
- −5Capital allocationAccumulated losses of SEK 782m; the share price has fallen from SEK 40.65 (2021) to 1.78, and capital has been raised again and again at falling prices – most recently at SEK 1.20 in June 2026.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/S 3.4 and P/B 2.8 vs P/S 2.9–68 and P/B 3.4–17 in 2021–2025; market cap SEK 272m vs 2.0–2.3bn in 2021–22. Low vs own history, but the share price is +49% above the issue price in three months.
- −2PeersEV of about SEK 260m for a phase 3-ready Parkinson's programme plus an Otsuka-funded programme – in line with or slightly below Nordic CNS biotech peers without partners.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−21 of −35
- −8Phase 3 fundingThe 2026 target is to fund mesdopetam's phase 3 via a partner or licence; the partner search has run since 2023 without a deal, and the company cannot itself carry a phase 3 programme.
- −5DilutionA 2:3 rights issue at SEK 1.20 (15% discount) plus over-allotment – about 64m new shares; share count +61% in a year to about 148m.
- −3ManagementCEO Kristina Torfgård leaves the post in Q1 2027, and a new chair (Janne Backman) was appointed in September 2026 – in the middle of the partner negotiations on mesdopetam.
- −1DebtLoan from Fenja Capital of SEK 18.5m extended to 30/11/2027 (SEK 5.2m repaid at the share issue).
- −2Customer concentrationAlmost all revenue comes from one partner (MSRD/Otsuka) funding the IRL757 study; Q2 revenue fell to 6.4m from 19.5m.
- −2
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3PartnershipIRL757 (linepemat) is fully funded to proof of concept by MSRD/Otsuka, which paid USD 4m in October 2025.
- +1Insider buyingBoard member James Gamgort bought shares in July 2026; the issue was 81% guaranteed by major shareholders and new professional investors and was oversubscribed (112.6%).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Clinical CNS biotech; revenue is partner-funded development work (Otsuka/MSRD), not product sales; the cash at 30/6 (34m) is before the rights issue proceeds (about 76m gross, registered in July); no stockanalysis forecast; insider data only partly examined
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