Rankings Financial data & insurance broking K33
K33
35
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding and liquidity−8
- Multiples vs own history−7
Strengths
- Regulation+2
- Commercial pipeline+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.01 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 211m
- Cash runway
- 2 months
- Cash / debt
- 3.3 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +17%
Bull case
A new crypto bull market lifts bitcoin far above USD 100,000 and brokerage volume, while the MiCA passport gives K33 institutional customers in the Nordics and Germany. If gross profit again reaches SEK 40-60m, and the bitcoin holding rises in value, the market cap can reach SEK 1bn or more, about 3x today.
Bear case
Bitcoin keeps falling, brokerage volume and margins fall further, and cash of SEK 3m forces issues at 1–2 öre or a sale of bitcoin at the bottom. The stock has already fallen from SEK 0.16 (2021) to SEK 0.02 with annual dilution of 7–21%.
Catalysts
- 26 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: liquidity, bitcoin holdings and whether the MiCA expansion gives volumebinary stockanalysis.com
- 2026–2027European expansion after MiCA license (passport to SE, DK, FI and DE) and new institutional partners such as Coinmotiongradual mfn.se
- by 2027-08-21 at the latestExercise window for Sixty Six Capital's call option on 100–200 BTC at USD 100,000; the bitcoin price drives K33's look-through exposurebinary mfn.se
Risk of going to zeromedium – very small cash holding and constant losses, but bitcoin and the Sixty Six holding provide saleable assets, and insiders own a third. Dilution is the biggest risk rather than bankruptcy.
Next financingCash only lasts about 2 months at operating cash flow of about -SEK 6m per quarter (H1 2026). K33 does, however, have bitcoin and a stake in Sixty Six Capital (together about SEK 80m in book long-term assets at 30/6), which can be sold; including them runway is over a year. A new issue or bitcoin sale is likely around the Q3 report (26/11-2026).
Warrants & convertiblesWarrants issued together with the 2025 issues (incl. September 2025) and interest-free convertibles of up to SEK 45m maturing 30/6-2028 from the 2025 financing, of which SEK 41.25m was moved to shares in September 2025. Number of outstanding warrants, strike and expiry not examined; the issue price in 2025 was SEK 0.05, above today's share price.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found after October 2025. Latest found: Tigerstaden AS increased its ownership 15/9-2025 and primary insider purchase in July 2025 (just outside 12 months).
Largest ownersNot fully investigated. Insiders own about 34% and institutions about 0.4% according to stockanalysis; Tigerstaden AS is among the larger owners.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 211m. (2) Hot theme: partial – bitcoin treasury was hot in 2025, but the theme has cooled after the bitcoin decline. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – MiCA expansion and partnerships are gradual, no binary event. (4) Major partner: no – Coinmotion and Sixty Six Capital are small. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – only a few months of cash. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −42% in a year and near the lowest level since 2023.
Why this asymmetryThe stock is in practice a leveraged bitcoin bet with a brokerage business with very thin earnings and constant dilution. The upside requires a new crypto boom; without it, issues at lower prices will eat the return.
How the score is built
From 100 to 35, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.02 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −39%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30
- −10MarginOperating result −SEK 74m TTM on gross profit of only SEK 15m; gross margin on trading revenue has fallen year by year from 8.3% (2021) to 0.65% TTM. Q2 2026: adjusted EBITDA −SEK 4.6m and net result −SEK 19.6m.
- −6Quality of growthTrading revenue grew 56% TTM, but gross profit fell from SEK 29.4m (2024) to 24.5m (2025) and 15m TTM. Q2 2026 revenue fell 52% to SEK 193m. Growth is volume with almost no earnings.
- −6Capital allocationShare issuances every year (−7% to −21% 'buyback yield' 2021–TTM) to buy bitcoin at an average cost price of around USD 117,000; Q2 2026 gave about SEK 14m in unrealized loss on bitcoin. In addition 46% of Canadian Sixty Six Capital was bought for about CAD 4.7m (partly paid in new shares).
- −4MoatCrypto brokerage is a pressured volume business with large competitors (Coinbase, Kraken, Firi, banks with MiCA authorization); K33 has 8 employees and a gross margin below 1% on trading, which points to poor pricing power.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−14 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own historyP/B 3.9 vs 2.5 at the end of 2025, even though equity (SEK 84m) consists primarily of bitcoin and a minority holding in Sixty Six Capital. EV/gross profit approx. 22x for a business with falling gross profit.
- −7FCF yieldFree cash flow −242 m SEK TTM (incl. bitcoin purchases) and operating cash flow −57 m SEK; FCF yield −73%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−22 of −35
- −8Funding and liquidityCash only SEK 3.3m at 30/6-2026 (down from 12.4m a year earlier), current ratio 0.72 and negative working capital. Operations depend on selling bitcoin or new issues.
- −5DilutionThe share count rose 16.9% over a year and 6.4% in the latest quarter to 14.92bn shares; directed issues and warrants in 2025 and 378m new shares for the Sixty Six purchase in 2026.
- −6Crypto exposureThe balance sheet is a leveraged bitcoin position: the bitcoin decline gave about SEK 14m in unrealised loss in Q2 2026, and H1 net income was −SEK 55m vs −7.5m a year earlier. Brokerage volume also falls when the crypto market falls.
- −3Complex structure46% ownership in listed Sixty Six Capital, partly bought with USDC stablecoins, and a 12-month call option on up to 200 BTC at USD 100,000 sold through a subsidiary. The structure makes the real bitcoin and credit risk hard to see through.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2RegulationMiCA licence received June 2026 with passport to Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Germany, which opens the way for European expansion.
- +1
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Price SEK 0.0219 (about DKK 0.014). Market cap checked: 14.92bn shares × SEK 0.0219 = SEK 327m ≈ DKK 216m, close to Nordnet's DKK 211m. 'Revenue' is gross trading turnover as a crypto broker (SEK 2.3bn), so P/S is meaningless; gross profit (SEK 15m TTM) is the real measure of activity. The Q2 report PDF has not been read; figures are from stockanalysis and press releases. Exact bitcoin holdings at 30/6-2026, the remaining amount of the interest-free convertibles from 2025 and warrant terms (number, strike, expiry) have not been investigated. Largest owners and insider trades after October 2025 have not been fully investigated. No stockanalysis forecast page (404 = no analysts). Crypto brokerage does not fit the list; 'Finance, data & insurance brokerage' chosen. Cyclical set to true, because both brokerage income and bitcoin treasury follow crypto prices.
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