Rankings Software, cloud & internet KPN
KPN
80
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Quality of growth−4
- Multiples vs own history−3
- Peers−3
Strengths
- Dividend growth+2
- Stable earnings and margin+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 80, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.36 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 4.74 EUR
- Upside to median
- +8.8%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 2.30 – 5.40 EUR
- 52-week change
- +9%
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.9
- Forward P/E
- 16.3
- PEG
- 1.18
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−6 of −30
- −4Quality of growthService revenue grew only 0.8% in H1 2026, and the full-year expectation has been cut from above 2% to about 1.5% because Business fell 1.1% (Tailored Solutions and Large Corporate). Revenue has only grown from EUR 5.27bn to 5.83bn since 2021 (about 2% a year).
- −2Capital allocationDividend EUR 751m + buyback EUR 292m (TTM) = EUR 1.04bn, above KPN's own FCF of about EUR 0.95bn; net debt has risen from EUR 6.13bn (2022) to EUR 6.85bn, and in September EUR 500m of new hybrid bonds were issued. The payout is partly debt-funded.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 15.5 vs 15.0–18.0 in 2021–2025 (mid-range), but EV/EBITDA 8.9 vs 8.1–9.6 (upper half), P/B 4.5 vs 3.1–4.3 (a record) and the 4.6% dividend yield is the lowest in the period (4.8–6.2%). The stock is not cheap relative to itself despite the fall from about EUR 4.4.
- −3PeersForward P/E 15.5 and EV/EBITDA 8.9 vs Deutsche Telekom (11.1 and 6.2) and Orange (11.1 and 6.5); the premium of about 40% is paid for lower growth (1.5% service revenue) than Deutsche Telekom and Orange have.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−6 of −35
- −2CompetitionManagement called Q2 the most competitive quarter in five quarters: VodafoneZiggo is pressing on price, and Odido is fighting to win customers back after its data breach.
- −2Regulation (ACM)The competition authority ACM in June 2026 blocked Glaspoort's (KPN/APG) purchase of Delta Fiber's fibre network (about 200,000 households); KPN now aims for about 80% fibre coverage instead of 85% and is appealing the decision.
- −1DebtDebt 7.27bn vs cash of EUR 0.42bn; net debt/EBITDA 2.85 (KPN's own leverage 2.5x), current ratio 0.66 and P/TBV 58 – the balance sheet is thin and depends on continuous refinancing and hybrid capital.
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Dividend growthThe dividend rises from EUR 0.18 (2025) to EUR 0.20 (2026) and according to the plan EUR 0.25 in 2027; six years of dividend growth in a row, and the dividend alone (EUR 751m) is covered by KPN's FCF.
- +1Stable earnings and marginAdjusted EBITDA +3.4% like-for-like and margin +0.4 pp to 45.6% in Q2; FCF +7% in H1, and guidance for EBITDA AL (about 2.67bn) and FCF (above 0.95bn) is confirmed. ROIC has been stable at 10–11% since 2023 (beta 0.25).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Stockanalysis' FCF (1.31bn) does not deduct leases (about 0.1bn) and purchases of spectrum/intangible assets (about 0.28bn); KPN's own FCF was about 0.95bn in 2025 and is guided above 0.95bn in 2026, so P/FCF is really about 15–16 and FCF yield about 6.5%, not 8.7%. Forward P/E and EPS forecasts are on adjusted EPS. Share count −1.6% in a year matches buybacks of 250m; stockanalysis' +19% in the quarter is a data artefact and is not used. Q3 2026 is hit by a one-off cost of 45m for a new collective agreement. Citi has cut its price target (4.90), and price targets are not used as findings. The threat from AI agents to the business model (debate in Sept. 2026) and credit rating are not examined separately. Telecom does not fit in the industry list; placed under Software, cloud & internet like Deutsche Telekom, Orange and Telenor. Next report 28 Oct. 2026.
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