Rankings Tech hardware & optics Lumentum
Lumentum
76
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−28
- Dilution−6
- Customer concentration−4
Strengths
- Strategic partner+3
- Guidance and pricing power+3
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 76, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 684.40 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1,193 USD
- Upside to median
- +74.3%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 685.00 – 1,425 USD
- 52-week change
- +240%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 24.4
- PEG
- 0.20
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−4 of −30
- −1MarginThe GAAP operating margin was 17.8% in FY26 (27.8% in Q4; non-GAAP 36.6%) vs −11.7% in FY25. The margin is strengthening fast, but a full year at a high margin has not yet been delivered.
- −3Cyclical history and ROICRevenue fell 23% in FY24, the operating margin was −26.6%, and ROIC was negative in FY23–25 (−2% to −15%). The current ROIC of 16% rests on one boom year in an industry with repeated ups and downs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−28 of −35
- −28Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 27.4 vs 2.2–4.0 in FY22–25 (21.1 at FY26); EV/EBITDA 102; P/FCF 275; forward P/E 42 vs 12–55 historically and above Coherent (30) and Fabrinet (22.5). The bottleneck and a doubling of revenue are fully priced in.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −6DilutionThe non-GAAP diluted share count rose from 72.0m (Q4 FY25) to 101.1m (Q4 FY26), i.e. +40%; 89.7m common shares as of 14/8/2026. Convertible notes were exchanged for shares (non-cash loss of $7.8bn), and Nvidia received 2.9m preferred shares. The previously cited +7.2% understated the dilution.
- −4Customer concentrationCustomer A accounted for 26.6% of revenue in FY26 (15.4% in FY25) and customer B for 15.0%, 41.6% in total.
- −3Cash flowFCF of $300m on $3.0bn of revenue (10% FCF margin); capex almost doubled to $451m with a new plant in Greensboro, and FCF was negative in FY24–25.
- −2CompetitionThe Nvidia deal is non-exclusive, and Nvidia at the same time invested $2bn in competitor Coherent, which is expanding its own laser and InP capacity. The scarcity that carries the margin is thus being financed away.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +3Strategic partnerNvidia invested $2bn in preferred shares at $695 per share and signed a multi-year purchase commitment in the billions with access to future laser capacity.
- +3Guidance and pricing powerQ4 revenue was $1.01bn (+109%). Q1 FY27 is guided at $1.225–1.275bn (+130%) with a non-GAAP operating margin of 39.5–40.5%, over 2,100 bp higher than a year earlier.
- +1Net cashCash $2.7bn vs debt of $1.67bn (mainly convertible notes), i.e. net cash of $1.07bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The price is +473% over one year (P/S 27 vs 2–4 historically), and consensus expects revenue to double to $6.3bn in FY27. The share count has risen about 30–40% because convertible loans were exchanged for shares and Nvidia received preference shares. One customer accounts for 26.6%. The $6.9bn GAAP loss is a non-cash conversion item and is not counted.
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