Rankings Tech hardware & optics Coherent
Coherent
66
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−17
- Cash flow−6
- Dilution−6
Strengths
- Strategic partner+3
- Guidance+2
- Rising margin+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 66, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 199.95 USD
- Median analyst target
- 420.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +110.1%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 230.00 – 500.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +52%
- P/E (trailing)
- 48.5
- Forward P/E
- 21.2
- PEG
- 0.40
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−9 of −30
- −3MarginThe GAAP operating margin was 12.7% in FY26 (9.5% in FY25, 12.5% in FY22), and the gross margin was 37.5%. The margin is rising, but only back to the 2022 level and far below Lumentum.
- −4ROICROIC 6.7–6.9% vs 1.1–8.3% in FY22–25: below the cost of capital, weighed down by goodwill from the II-VI/Coherent merger and heavy capex.
- −2Quality of earningsNet profit of $805m includes a $124.1m gain on divestments, while operating cash flow was only $79.5m ($633.6m in FY25), because working capital tied up cash.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−17 of −35
- −17Multiples vs own history and peersTrailing P/E 68.6 (32.6 in FY22, negative in FY23–25); forward P/E 30 vs 12–53 (average about 28); EV/EBITDA 40 vs 10.7–55 (average about 25); P/S 7.8 vs 1.4–10.8 (average about 3.7); P/FCF is negative. Cheaper than Lumentum, but more expensive than Fabrinet and far above its own history on sales and EBITDA.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −6Cash flowFCF −$1.02bn in FY26 (+$193m in FY25): operating cash flow $79.5m vs capex of $1.10bn (more than doubled), and management expects even higher capex in Q1.
- −6DilutionThe diluted share count rose from 155.5m (Q4 FY25) to 202.2m (Q4 FY26), i.e. +30%, through a share issue of about $2.0bn to Nvidia and conversion of preferred shares.
- −1DebtNet debt $1.56bn (debt $3.2–3.55bn); leverage has fallen to 0.7x from 2.0x, though, because the share issue was used to pay down debt.
- −1Insider tradingFour board members and the chief legal officer sold about 12,500 shares for about $3.6m from 31/8 to 11/9/2026 (partly via 10b5-1 plans); no insider buying, and insiders own only 0.3%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Strategic partnerNvidia invested about $2bn in shares and signed a multi-year purchase commitment in the billions.
- +2GuidanceQ1 FY27 is guided at $2.2–2.4bn (midpoint 8% above consensus of $2.13bn) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.85–2.05; data centre and communications +40.5% in FY26.
- +1Rising marginThe GAAP gross margin rose 277 bp to 38.5% in Q4, and Q1 is guided at 39.5–41.5% non-GAAP.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
FCF was −$1.0bn in FY26, and capex keeps rising ($556m in Q4). The diluted share count has risen 30% (Nvidia share issue and conversion of preference shares). ROIC is below the cost of capital, and FY26 results include a $124m gain from divestments. Customer and competition data have not been examined.
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