Rankings Tech hardware & optics Sensys Gatso

Sensys Gatso

Tech hardware & optics · SwedenRank 82 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.470+ zone

15070100

In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.

Biggest deductions

Margin and ROIC−5
Capital allocation−4
Debt and refinancing−4

Strengths

Raised guidance+2
Growing recurring revenue+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 84, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

84Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 41.40 SEK
Median analyst target: 70.00 SEK
Upside to median: +69.1%
Analysts: 2
Target range: 65.00 – 75.00 SEK
52-week change: +9%
P/E (trailing): 11.9
Forward P/E: 9.4
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−15 of −30

Margin and ROIC
EBIT margin is 10.2% TTM after 8.0% (2025), 3.2% (2024) and 6.3% (2023). Net margin is 5.5% TTM, and 2025 ended with a loss (−4.8m). ROIC is only 6.3% and has been 2–5% in 2021–2024.
stockanalysis.com
−5
Quality of growth
Revenue has grown from 507m (2021) to 726m TTM, but it is project-based and swings (-2% in 2022, +26% in 2023, +1% in 2024, +14% in 2025, +2% in H1 2026). Guidance for 2026 is 750-800m. The recurring US ARR backlog is only 35m.
sensysgatso.com
−3
Capital allocation
Investments are approx. EUR 96m a year (capex 54m and capitalized development 42m, approx. 13% of revenue) to build the US managed services business, financed with a EUR 30m bond. Goodwill is 271m of equity of 619m, and the return on invested capital has not covered the cost of capital.
stockanalysis.com
−4
Moat and competition
Traffic safety cameras are won in public tenders against larger competitors such as Jenoptik, Verra Mobility, Vitronic and Idemia. Long-term operation and maintenance contracts (e.g. Sweden, Netherlands, Australia) give some lock-in, but the price is set in tenders.
news.cision.com
−3

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−3 of −35

Multiples vs own history
EV/EBITDA 6.4 vs 8.5-17.9 in 2021-2025, forward P/E 10.0 vs 12.3-23.6, EV/Sales 1.03 vs 1.05-1.83 and P/B 0.82 vs 0.79-1.57. The lowest valuation in the history.
stockanalysis.com
−1
Adjusted FCF and peers
P/FCF 4.6 at stockanalysis is misleading: after capitalised development and leasing, FCF is approx. 55m TTM (P/FCF approx. 9), and without the working capital release of approx. 60m it is close to zero. Jenoptik trades at EV/EBITDA 13.4. Sensys is cheap, but that reflects debt and low capital turnover.
stockanalysis.com
−2

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−9 of −35

Debt and refinancing
Net debt is SEK 243.8m (approx. 2.3x EBITDA). It consists mainly of an unsecured bond of EUR 30m at Euribor + 4.75%, maturing in September 2028. Interest expenses were 24m TTM, approx. 1/3 of EBIT, and were the reason for the net loss in 2025.
news.cision.com
−4
Dependence on public tenders
Revenue depends on a few large state and municipal contracts (Sweden, the Netherlands, Australia, the Middle East) and new US municipal programs that require photo enforcement legislation. Losing or delaying a single tender can shift a whole year.
inderes.se
−3
Management change and track record
CEO Ivo Mönnink stepped down in June 2025 after eight years, and Lewis Miller took over. The company has a long history of earnings disappointments: P/E was 49–127 in 2022–2024 due to weak earnings, and the share price has fallen from about DKK 80 (2022) to 44.
affarsvarlden.se
−2

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15

Raised guidance
The EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 was raised from 14–16% to 15–17% in August 2026, after the H1 margin rose from 11.9% to 17.0%. Operating cash flow in H1 was +19m (−21m).
inderes.se
+2
Growing recurring revenue
New US ARR of SEK 16.5m in Q2 alone, so the North American ARR backlog is now 35.3m, with new customers in Colorado, New York, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. The programs in Pennsylvania and Connecticut went live in Q2.
sensysgatso.com
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404); DNB Carnegie Access covers the company as paid research. Stockanalysis' FCF (SEK 110m TTM) is too flattering: it does not include capitalised development (42m TTM) and lease payments (13m), and it is lifted by a one-off release of working capital (c. 60m). Adjusted FCF is c. 55m and underlying close to zero. Stockanalysis shows a 6.9% fall in share count, but the balance sheet shows an unchanged 11.53m shares, so that figure is ignored. The reason for the net loss in 2025 (financial items/currency) has not been reviewed in detail. The quarterly report PDF could not be read, so loan terms beyond the bond (covenants) have not been reviewed. Insider trades and short data not found. Profitable operating company, so runway is set to null. Industry: 'Tech hardware & optics' is the closest (traffic safety cameras and services).