Rankings Pharma & medtech Lundbeck
Lundbeck
62
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Patent expiry−10
- Segment of the future and pipeline−4
- Concentration in few products−2
Strengths
- Guidance toward the upper end+1
- Strong FCF and debt reduction+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 62, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 53.95 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 50.00 DKK
- Upside to median
- −7.3%
- Analysts
- 12
- Target range
- 36.00 – 62.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- +15%
- P/E (trailing)
- 13.6
- Forward P/E
- 8.6
- PEG
- 2.63
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−8 of −30
- −4Segment of the future and pipelineAfter Rexulti and Vyepti the late pipeline is thin: the nearest replacement is bexicaserin (epilepsy) from the Longboard acquisition, and Lundbeck stopped a TED study in August 2026 just before the phase 3 readout. R&D of DKK 5.6–5.9bn has not yet delivered own blockbusters.
- −2Concentration in few productsRexulti (DKK 3,297m), Vyepti (2,865) and Brintellix/Trintellix (2,331) accounted for about 63% of H1 revenue of DKK 13,588m; Brintellix fell 5% underlying.
- −2Capital allocationLongboard was bought for USD 2.6bn for a single phase 3 asset; net debt went from net cash of DKK 0.9bn (2023) to -12.0bn (2024), now -7.2bn. An expensive, binary bet.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 7.2 is at the bottom of its own history (7.25–9.8) and trailing P/E 11.3 below 12.5–13.9, but EV/sales 1.98 and P/B 1.64 are at the top of the 2022–2025 range (1.55–2.04 and 1.22–1.66), and EV/EBITDA 6.1 is mid-range of 5.7–6.6. The low price reflects the patent cliff.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −10Patent expiryTrintellix loses US exclusivity on 17 December 2026 (US handed to Takeda against royalties), and the top seller Rexulti is expected to lose exclusivity in the US by the end of 2028; analysts expect revenue +0.9% and EPS −1.9% in 2027.
- −2Governance and controlLundbeckfonden has controlling influence and owns around 70% of the shares; other insiders own 0.13% and institutions only 10%. Minority shareholders have no real influence.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Guidance toward the upper endH1 2026: revenue +16% at constant currency (13% underlying), Vyepti +46%; guidance of 7–9% growth and 8–14% EBITDA growth maintained with an expectation of the upper end.
- +1Strong FCF and debt reductionFCF DKK 5.2bn (TTM, margin 20%); the dividend (FCF payout 22%) and repayments have lowered net debt/EBITDA from 2.0 to 0.87 in 1½ years.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Reported EPS (3.97 TTM) is depressed by amortisation of acquired rights (Longboard etc.); adjusted EPS is expected at 6.31 in 2026. The bexicaserin phase 3 result is expected from Q4 2026 and could move the case sharply either way. Patent expiry is scored only in T3.
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
