Rankings Transport & logistics Norwegian Air Shuttle
Norwegian Air Shuttle
62
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−6
- Acquisition of NLTG (dilution and integration)−5
- Moat−4
Strengths
- Buybacks and dividend+1
- Cost control+1
- Liquidity+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 62, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 11.60 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 12.50 NOK
- Upside to median
- +7.8%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 11.00 – 17.50 NOK
- 52-week change
- −26%
- P/E (trailing)
- 13.5
- Forward P/E
- 15.2
- PEG
- 2.32
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−15 of −30
- −6MarginOperating margin 4.4% and net margin 4.3% (TTM), gross margin 19.8%; adjusted EBIT margin only 2% in Q2 2026 (DKK 213m), and reported EBIT was −DKK 603m. Operating profit has halved from DKK 3.3bn in 2025 to DKK 1.7bn TTM.
- −3Quality of growthGroup revenue grew only 1% in Q2 despite 5% more capacity; Norwegian's cabin factor fell 2.7 percentage points to 82.5%. Analysts expect revenue growth of 4% in 2026, but an EPS fall of about 60% to kr 0.87.
- −4MoatLow-cost flying is a uniform product with free competition from SAS, Ryanair and others; gross margin has fallen from 21% in 2025 to 19.8% TTM, and the company has no pricing power over fuel and CO2 costs.
- −2Return on capitalROCE only 6.1% (11.9% in 2025) and ROA 2.3% with a balance sheet full of leased aircraft; ROIC has fallen from 20.2% to 13.1% in a year.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyTrailing P/E 7.9 is in the upper part of its own history (5.4–8.7 in 2021–2025), and forward P/E is approx. 14 on 2026E EPS of DKK 0.87 vs 6.6–8.5 forward in 2024–2025. EV/EBITDA 3.6 is low (5.2–6.2 previously), but the price is only low on EBITDA before leasing, not on earnings.
- −1PeersForward P/E of about 14 on 2026E is not cheap for a Nordic airline with a 2–4% margin; European low-cost carriers with higher margins typically trade at no more than the same level.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−12 of −35
- −5Acquisition of NLTG (dilution and integration)The acquisition of Nordic Leisure Travel Group for about SEK 7.94bn is paid with SEK 3.5bn in cash and 300m new shares (plus up to 30m later), i.e. about 29-31% dilution of the 1.05bn shares shortly after buyback. Charter travel is a low-margin business, the seller Petter Stordalen becomes a major shareholder, and EU approval is pending. The stock fell about 4% on the news.
- −4Fuel and CO2 regulationQ2 was hit by a one-off loss of 733m kr after the Supreme Court decided a case on EU ETS obligations for 2020, and by higher fuel costs; the allowance price and the EU's phase-out of free allowances are a lasting cost risk.
- −3Debt and leasingTotal debt incl. leasing DKK 19.0bn vs equity of DKK 6.7bn (debt/equity 2.85), interest cover only 1.25 and current ratio 0.99; net debt DKK 5.3bn despite DKK 13.7bn in cash (which is partly customer prepayments).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+3 of +15
- +1Buybacks and dividendThe share count has fallen 12.5% over a year, and dividends plus buybacks made up 37% of the (exaggerated) FCF; shareholder yield was 25.7%. The plus is limited to 1, because the NLTG purchase issues more shares than were bought back.
- +1Cost controlUnit costs excl. fuel fell 5% year over year in Q2 2026, and CASK excl. fuel is guided flat for the year.
- +1LiquidityCash holdings of kr 13.7bn at the end of Q2 2026 provide a solid buffer in a seasonal industry.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Stockanalysis' FCF (DKK 4.8bn, FCF yield 37%) is greatly overstated: it includes prepaid tickets (customer funds) and places lease payments under financing (IFRS 16), so no credit has been given for the FCF yield. The Q2 figures are affected by a one-off loss of DKK 733m related to EU ETS (Supreme Court ruling on 2020 allowances). The NLTG acquisition (Ving, Spies, Tjäreborg, Sunclass) has not been completed; EU approval is pending, and the figures are from before the acquisition. Price target and analyst count (6, consensus 'Hold') come from the formulas. September traffic: load factor 86.6% (+1.4 pp.), ASK +2%. Labour relations (strike risk) not examined.
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