Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Mastercard
Mastercard
80
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−5
- Capital allocation−3
- Regulation: Credit Card Competition Act−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Pricing power and diversified customer base+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 80, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 658.10 USD
- Median analyst target
- 725.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +10.2%
- Analysts
- 40
- Target range
- 550.00 – 800.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +19%
- P/E (trailing)
- 34.4
- Forward P/E
- 29.6
- PEG
- 1.77
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−5 of −30
- −2Future segmentAccount-to-account transfers pressure the card networks in Europe: EPI's Wero is live in e-commerce in Germany and Belgium (March 2026), and France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands follow in 2026. Mastercard has greater European exposure than Visa. The stablecoin acquisition (BVNK) is a defence, not revenue yet.
- −3Capital allocationBuybacks (USD 16.0bn) and dividend (USD 2.9bn) totalling USD 19.0bn TTM exceed FCF of USD 16.7bn (USD 16.0bn after capitalised software), and net borrowing rose USD 5.7bn. Net debt has gone from USD 6.8bn (2023) to USD 12.9bn, and debt/equity is 4.4. On top of that comes the acquisition of the stablecoin firm BVNK for up to USD 1.8bn, 2.4 times its 2024 valuation.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 28.9 vs 30.2–36.6 in 2021–25, i.e. below the whole period. Trailing P/E 33.9 vs 33.7–40.6 and EV/EBITDA 24.9 vs 25.3–32.7, both at the bottom of the range; P/FCF 32.3 vs 29.9–39.0. Forward P/E is slightly above Visa's 27.7, but with 3–4pp higher growth. Cheaper than its history, but still a full multiple in absolute terms.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−10 of −35
- −3Regulation: Credit Card Competition ActTrump backed the CCCA on 13/1/2026, and Visa and Mastercard fell at least 4% on the day. The act requires at least two independent networks on credit cards from large banks. It failed in March, but the Senate majority leader has promised a vote in this session of Congress.
- −2Fee settlement with merchantsThe $38bn settlement received preliminary approval on 9/6/2026. It cuts effective credit card interchange by 10 bp for five years and gives merchants the right to refuse expensive cards and add a surcharge. NRF and other trade groups will continue to challenge it.
- −2Litigation in the UKIn June 2025 the UK Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT) ruled that Visa's and Mastercard's unregulated interchange fees are an infringement of Art. 101 by themselves. It was the first of at least three trials in the combined merchant claims; the damages phase is outstanding.
- −2Cash flowFCF rose only 0.9% TTM to $16.7bn, while net income rose 22%. FCF margin fell from 52.3% (2025) to 47.6%, with −$2.6bn in other operating items. Cash flow is not following earnings.
- −1Insider sellingCEO Michael Miebach sold 16,628 shares at $567.68 on 31/7 and 15,372 shares at $575 on 5/8/2026 (about $18m) under a 10b5-1 plan and owns 93,163 shares directly. There are no insider purchases.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceIn Q2 2026 (revenue +14%, adjusted EPS +21%) Mastercard raised its expected position within the full-year revenue growth range, and Q3 is expected at the high end of low double digits.
- +2Pricing power and diversified customer baseValue-added services grew 20% in Q2, cross-border volume 12% and transactions 9%. Operating margin has risen from 54.4% (2021) to 59.9%, and ROIC from 73% to 94%. No customer concentration.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Q3 results come 29/10 and are not included. The multiple history covers only 2021–25 (5 years); the 10-year level has not been verified. The DOJ's debit case hits Visa, not Mastercard directly, but an outcome could spill over. The FTC's earlier order on debit routing and UK CAT cases are not fully quantified. Equity is only USD 5.6bn after decades of buybacks, so ROE and P/B say nothing. The price is 16% above the 200-day average (RSI 75). Insider trading has only been checked for the CEO.
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