Rankings Pharma & medtech Medivir
Medivir
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Multiples vs own history−9
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Insider buying+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.06 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 668m
- Cash runway
- 25 months
- Cash / debt
- 253.5 / 4.5m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +203%
Bull case
FLEX-HCC shows a clear benefit vs lenvatinib alone. That could bring a licence for fostrox and make it the first approved second-line treatment after immunotherapy. At the same time MIV-711 delivers proof of concept in OI or Perthes (orphan and Rare Pediatric status could trigger a priority review voucher). That could lift the value from SEK 1bn to 3–4bn (3–4x).
Bear case
FLEX-HCC disappoints (a small Korean study in a hard indication), and the MIV-711 studies are delayed. The share price has already tripled in 2026 and could fall back towards the DKK 0.50–1.00 issue prices (−40 to −70%). Medivir has a long history of disappointments.
Catalysts
- H2 2026Result from Vetbiolix' study of MIV-701 against periodontitis in dogs (royalty)binary mfn.se
- 5 Nov 2026Q3 report (recruitment in FLEX-HCC and start of OI and Perthes studies)gradual stockanalysis.com
- around Q2 2027FLEX-HCC fully enrolled (plan: all patients within 12 months from May 2026)gradual mfn.se
Risk of going to zeromedium – cash lasts about 2 years, and there are three programmes and strong owners (Bennet, Hallberg), but no products and no partner
Next financingAccording to the company there is no need before all three phase 2 studies are completed. Operating cash flow was −18m in Q2 and rises to about 30m a quarter with three studies, so the cash lasts to about H2 2028. Phase 3 requires a partner or a new share issue.
Warrants & convertiblesLTIP programmes with 2.3m C-shares to be delivered. No convertible loans. Any warrants from the December 2025 share issue have not been checked.
Insiders, last 12 monthsChairman Anders Hallberg's Hallberg Management subscribed for 6,097,560 shares at DKK 1.64 (about SEK 10m; approved at the EGM on 20/7/2026). Major owner Carl Bennet AB bought 90m shares at DKK 0.50 (SEK 45m, February 2026). No insider sales found.
Largest ownersAt 31/3/2026 (before the June share issue): Hallberg Management 17.4%, Carl Bennet AB 16.6% and Linc AB 12.8%. In addition, Nordea Småbolagsfond, Cicero and Storebrand participated in June.
Circio check(1) Small market value: partly, about DKK 668m. (2) Hot theme: partly, rare diseases and liver cancer, but not a hyped theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, but only in 2027–28. (4) Large partner: no, no licence partner; only strong private investors. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes, about 2 years. (6) Price near the bottom: no, the price has risen from DKK 0.50 to 1.60 since February, so the Circio run has already happened.
Why this asymmetryThe company is well funded and has three shots on goal, but the share has already tripled and P/B is above its entire own history. Decisive data come only in 2027–28. The big asymmetric run from DKK 0.50 is over.
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.46 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 4.35 SEK
- Upside to median
- +198.8%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 4.10 – 4.60 SEK
- 52-week change
- +177%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 33.1
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−23 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 8.7m vs an operating loss of SEK 87m (TTM); operating margin is −994%. Losses every year since 2021 (64–128m annually).
- −6Quality of growthThe fostrox evidence is a single-arm phase 1b/2a study. The randomised FLEX-HCC (30–50 patients per arm, South Korea only) only dosed its first patient in May 2026. MIV-711 in OI and Perthes is not yet in the clinic.
- −2MoatThe combination patent for fostrox plus lenvatinib protects to 2041 (Notice of Allowance in the US). MIV-711 has orphan and Rare Pediatric status. The protection is real, but none of the programmes has shown efficacy in a controlled study.
- −5Capital allocationMedivir went from being a royalty-rich company to living off repeated share issues: SEK 151m in December 2025, SEK 45m at SEK 0.50 in February and SEK 140m at SEK 1.64 in June. The share count has risen 203% in a year, and ROIC has been strongly negative in all years.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−15 of −35
- −9Multiples vs own historyP/B is 3.5 vs 0.7–2.9 in 2021–2025, above its entire history. The market cap is SEK 1.02bn vs 184m at year-end, and the share price has tripled since February without new controlled data.
- −6PeersEV of SEK 773m for three early phase 2 programmes without a licence partner. That is high vs Nordic phase 2 biotechs with similar cash.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−16 of −35
- −6DilutionThree share issues in 10 months: rights issue of 151m (32.5% taken by guarantors), 90m shares to Carl Bennet at SEK 0.50 (16.6% dilution) and 91.5m shares at SEK 1.64. There are now 626.5m shares.
- −5Clinical riskFLEX-HCC is small and Korean only. Second-line treatment of liver cancer is hard: IMbrave251 missed its primary endpoint in 2026. Western regulators will probably require a larger study.
- −3PartneringThe business model rests on partnerships, but fostrox has not been out-licensed despite several years of trying, and there is no paying partner for MIV-711. The only partner programme is MIV-701 in dogs (Vetbiolix).
- −2Governance and conflicts of interestThe chairman's Hallberg Management is the largest owner and took part in the directed issue (which required an EGM). The previous largest owner, Linc, was also a lender and had 17.3m offset in the issue.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashCash SEK 253.5m vs debt of 4.5m at 30/6; according to the company all three phase 2 studies are funded.
- +2Insider buyingThe chairman's Hallberg Management bought 6.1m new shares at DKK 1.64 (about SEK 10m) in the directed issue together with Carl Bennet AB, Linc, Cicero and Storebrand. The issue was oversubscribed.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
A clinical-stage biotech (fostrox for liver cancer, MIV-711 for OI and Perthes) with minimal revenue; no analysts (forecast 404; stockanalysis' forward P/E of 32 is meaningless). The share count has risen about 200% in a year after three share issues. The price has risen from DKK 0.50 in February to 1.60. Whether the December 2025 issue came with warrants has not been checked.
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