Rankings Transport & logistics Norwegian Cruise Line
Norwegian Cruise Line
48
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and liquidity−8
- Quality of growth−5
- Repeated downgrades−5
Strengths
- Cost programme+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 48, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 17.94 USD
- Median analyst target
- 19.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +5.9%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 13.00 – 26.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −20%
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.1
- Forward P/E
- 14.3
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−17 of −30
- −5Quality of growthNet yield is expected to fall 3–5% in 2026 (before: flat) and 8.9% in Q3; revenue grew only 4.9% in Q2, and 2026 EPS is expected to fall 27% to USD 1.55.
- −3MarginOperating margin 15.3% and net margin 7.5% (TTM) vs Royal Caribbean at 27.4% operating margin; net margin was only 4.3% in 2025.
- −4Moat and executionManagement admits 'execution challenges' in marketing and revenue management at the Norwegian brand and has sold fewer cruises for next year than desired; the company is losing ground to Royal Caribbean.
- −2Return on capitalROIC 8.3% and declining (9.8% in 2024) vs 15.5% at Royal Caribbean and 11.6% at Carnival.
- −3Capital allocationCapex of USD 3.3bn TTM (new ships) vs operating cash flow of USD 2.1bn gives FCF of -USD 1.2bn, financed with USD 1.5bn of new net debt.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 12.6 vs 8.7 forward in 2025 and 12.9 in 2024 on falling earnings; EV/EBITDA 8.8 is below 9.9-12.8 in 2023-2025, but only because EBITDA expectations are being cut.
- −4FCF yieldFCF yield -16.6% (TTM) and -11.5% in 2025; analysts also expect negative FCF of -USD 1.2bn in 2026.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−19 of −35
- −8Debt and liquidityTotal debt USD 16.0bn vs cash of USD 218m; net debt/EBITDA 6.1 (RCL and CCL about 3.3), current ratio 0.20, interest coverage 2.3 and Altman Z 0.35.
- −5Repeated downgradesSecond downgrade in 2026: full-year EPS about USD 1.50 vs 1.63-1.67 expected after a drop of over 9% in May; the stock fell about 9% on 30 July and is -36% in a year, Morgan Stanley cut EBITDA estimates for 2026-2028 by 9-10%.
- −3Management and governanceCEO Harry Sommer stepped down in February 2026; Elliott (over 10%) criticized the CEO choice and forced through five new board members, and former CEO Frank Del Rio has sued the company for up to USD 75m.
- −3Fuel and the Middle EastThe conflict in the Middle East has hit bookings especially in Europe, and rising fuel prices weigh on earnings; short interest is 21% of free float.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Cost programmeA further USD 100m in annual savings (capex and SG&A) on top of USD 125m announced the quarter before.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q3 2026 has NOT been reported yet (29 Oct); figures run to 30 Jun 2026. Trailing P/E 9.5 is low because the 2025 result was weighed down by a loss on debt extinguishment; it is not a sign of cheapness. FCF is negative due to the newbuild programme. Elliott (over 10%) is an activist, but that gives no points, nor do 13F purchases. The exact net leverage for Q2 2026 and the newbuild plan for 2027–2028 have not been checked in the company's own figures. Industry: cruise = 'Transport & logistics' (closest).
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