Neste
83
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples on peak earnings−6
- Quality of growth−5
- Regulation and geopolitics−4
Strengths
- Efficiency programme+2
- Debt reduction+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 83, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 28.67 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 36.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +25.6%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 18.40 – 41.50 EUR
- 52-week change
- +59%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.0
- Forward P/E
- 8.7
- PEG
- 0.13
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −5Quality of growthThe record result (comparable EBITDA EUR 1,203m in Q2 vs 341) is due to a renewables margin of USD 1,223/t vs 361 a year earlier and a refining margin of USD 25.8/bbl vs 10.0 – driven by the Middle East conflict and regulation, not by volume: renewables sales volume is expected to be unchanged in 2026.
- −3ROIC over the cycleROIC 14% TTM, but 0.2% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025 vs 24–29% in 2021–2022; the return through the cycle has fallen markedly while investments have risen.
- −2MoatThe renewable diesel margin collapsed to USD 361/t in Q2 2025 due to new capacity in the US and Asia; the pricing power is borrowed from the market and regulation, not a lasting advantage.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples on peak earningsTrailing P/E 16.2 and P/B 2.90 look normal vs history (P/B 1.26–4.77, forward P/E 12–24), but are measured on record margins; on 2025 earnings P/E was 104, and analysts expect EPS from 3.43 in 2026 to 2.74 in 2027. The share price has doubled in a year.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−9 of −35
- −4Regulation and geopoliticsMargins depend on RED III in the EU, US biofuel requirements and RIN prices as well as war-driven diesel prices; a ceasefire or rule change could halve the margin, as in 2024-2025.
- −2Operations stop in H2Three major maintenance shutdowns in H2 2026: Porvoo 8 weeks from August, Rotterdam 8 weeks in Q4 and Singapore 11 weeks from December; it hits volume precisely in the strong margin period.
- −2SAF demandSAF production fell to 126,000 t in Q2 2026 from 290,000 t, and sales to 145,000 t; the growth case for jet fuel (and the Rotterdam expansion) is not yet delivering.
- −1Governance and dividendDividend cut 75% to EUR 0.20; the Finnish state owns approx. 44% and insiders 0.02%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Efficiency programmeThe improvement program contributed 118 m EUR of EBITDA in Q2 and has reached 594 m EUR in annual run-rate vs the 2024 base.
- +2Debt reductionGearing fell from 34.3% to 29.9% in H1; FCF 1.44 bn EUR TTM and net debt/EBITDA 1.3x vs 6.0x in 2024; capex down to about 1.2 bn EUR.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Cyclical: Q2 2026 is record earnings on war- and regulation-driven margins (Middle East, RED III, RIN). Low forward P/E and PEG 0.17 reflect peak earnings; analysts expect EPS −20% in 2027. Industry set to oil & gas (refining + renewable fuels). Q3 29 Oct 2026
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