Shell
69
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−10
- ROIC and growth quality−5
- Macro and oil price−5
Strengths
- Buybacks and dividend from FCF+3
- Raised guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 69, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 3,924 GBX
- Median analyst target
- 4,105 GBX
- Upside to median
- +4.6%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 3,442 – 4,938 GBX
- 52-week change
- +38%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.1
- Forward P/E
- 8.7
- PEG
- 1.21
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−12 of −30
- −4Future segmentShell has pulled back from much of the green transition and is betting on LNG and oil/gas. LNG is a strong niche, but the business is tied to fossil prices in a world where demand will flatten out over time.
- −5ROIC and growth qualityROIC was 8.2–8.9% in 2023–25 and is only 11.4% TTM, because prices rose during the war in the Middle East. Production fell from 2,752 to 2,455 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day from Q1 to Q2 2026, so earnings growth comes from price and trading, not from volume.
- −3Capital allocation (ARC Resources)The purchase of ARC Resources (EV USD 16.4bn, 20% premium) is paid 75% in shares, about 228m new Shell shares or about 4% dilution. That offsets a large part of a year of buybacks, and the buyback was paused in Q1 because of the deal.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−10 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 5.3 vs 3.0–5.3 in 2021–25 (the top), P/FCF 9.4 vs 4.3–8.8 and P/B 1.63 vs 0.96–1.20, all above the five-year history. Forward P/E 8.7 vs 5.4–11.1 looks moderate, but rests on war-lifted peak earnings. The share price is up 45% in 52 weeks and sits 21% above the 200-day average.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −5Macro and oil priceQ2 earnings (USD 9.8bn adjusted vs USD 6.9bn in Q1) came from higher realised prices, LNG trading and refining during the conflict in the Middle East. A normalisation of prices and volatility removes a large part of the lift that estimates and the share price now build on.
- −3Operating risk (Qatar)Volume from Qatar (Pearl GTL and LNG) is hit by the war. Shell's Q3 outlook assumes zero contribution from Qatar, and repairs could stretch into Q1 2027.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Buybacks and dividend from FCFFCF was USD 31.5bn TTM, or about USD 26bn after estimated lease payments of about USD 5bn. That covers buybacks (14.2bn) and dividends (8.4bn). The share count fell 6.4% in a year, which fits the buyback in the cash flow statement (before the ARC share issue). Net debt fell from USD 52.6bn to USD 41.8bn in Q2 (gearing 18.7%).
- +1Raised guidanceGuidance for LNG liquefaction was raised to 7.4–7.8m tonnes in the Q2 update, and structural cost savings have reached USD 5.8bn since 2022.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
2026 earnings are lifted by the war in the Middle East (higher realised prices and trading), and consensus expects EPS to double in 2026; this is cyclical peak earnings. The Q3 report comes at the end of October. Lease payments are not shown separately at stockanalysis and are estimated at about USD 5bn a year. BP: Shell rejected a bid in June 2025 (Rule 2.8, six-month lock-up expired in December 2025); in 2026 no new bid rumours have been found, and Shell bought ARC Resources instead. Climate cases and insider trades are not examined (0 points).
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