Repsol
80
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- ROIC and margin−3
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Low leverage+1
- Buybacks+1
- New projects in operation+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 80, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 30.35 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 31.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +2.1%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 22.70 – 38.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +91%
- P/E (trailing)
- 5.8
- Forward P/E
- 5.9
- PEG
- 0.85
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −3ROIC and marginROIC 12.0% and operating margin 11.2% TTM are a cyclical peak: in 2024–2025 ROIC was only 5.4–6.5% and the operating margin 5.0–5.6%, and the net margin has been 3.3–6.3% throughout 2021–2026.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue is largely flat (€44.5bn in 2021 vs €48.3bn in 2025); the 2026 lift comes from refining margins (Industrial 1,243 of 1,838m adjusted earnings in Q2) and an inventory gain of €823m. Analysts expect EPS +106% in 2026 and −25% in 2027.
- −2Moat and pricing powerRepsol is a price taker on both crude oil and refining margins; the gross margin has been 26–28% in 2021–2025, and only the peaks in oil and product prices lift it (31.6% TTM).
- −2Future segmentLow Carbon Generation delivered only €10m in adjusted earnings in Q2 2026, and Repsol is selling 49.99% of a 705 MW portfolio to Masdar for about €150m – the transition segment is not growing into a core earnings driver.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 6.7 vs 4.2–6.3 in 2021–2025 (above the top), trailing P/E 9.7 vs 4.9–9.6 (at the top), P/B 1.11 vs 0.47–0.79 and P/FCF 14.4 vs 4.8–10.9 – all above its own range; only EV/EBITDA 4.7 vs 2.5–6.8 is mid-range.
- −3Earnings at a cyclical peakThe share has risen 90% in a year; the low forward P/E rests on EPS of EUR 5.07 in 2026 (from 2.46) at high oil and refining prices, while analysts already expect 3.79 in 2027 – at normalised earnings the multiple is markedly higher.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −3VenezuelaReceivables from PDVSA of €4,080m (provisioned €3,295m) and financing of €1,036m; the booked exposure rose to €361m as of 30/6-2026 from €276m, and Repsol is postponing recovery in order to use the oil payments to increase production in the country.
- −2The EU methane regulationRepsol stated on 24/9-2026 that only 10–15% of the company's crude supply is confirmed as compliant with the EU's methane requirements from 1/1-2027, and that it continues to sign contracts without methane clauses; a postponement has been proposed but not adopted.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+3 of +15
- +1Low leverageNet debt fell to €3.67bn at the end of Q2 (−€1.13bn in the quarter) despite an inventory build of €2.4bn; net debt/EBITDA about 0.6x and interest cover 11x.
- +1BuybacksDividend €1.21bn + buybacks €0.17bn TTM vs. FCF €2.23bn; new buyback of €500m after a completed programme of €350m and a third planned in October; the share count has fallen 4.5% over a year.
- +1New projects in operationThe Pikka field in Alaska started production in H1 2026, and the renewable fuels plant in Puertollano is in operation.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Adjusted net result H1 2026 was €2,711m vs reported €2,201m; reported earnings also include a positive inventory effect of €823m from higher oil prices, which is not repeatable. Stockanalysis' fall in share count (−4.5%) matches the share capital (1,157 → 1,105m shares in 2025) and the cancellation of 15.8m shares in July 2026; 'Issuance of Common Stock' (€753m TTM) is the sale of minority stakes, not share issuance. FCF after leasing (about €0.5bn a year) is about €1.7bn TTM and still covers dividend + buyback of €1.38bn. The price (€29.80) is above the average price target (€28.51) and the median (€26.50); several targets were raised in September, others are stale after the +90% price rise – not used as a finding. Spanish energy tax, Libya/Algeria and insider trading have not been examined. Credit rating has not been examined.
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