Eni
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- ROIC and margin−4
- Capital allocation−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Organic project portfolio+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 26.36 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 26.75 EUR
- Upside to median
- +1.5%
- Analysts
- 22
- Target range
- 21.80 – 32.80 EUR
- 52-week change
- +66%
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.6
- Forward P/E
- 9.5
- PEG
- 0.20
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−11 of −30
- −4ROIC and marginROIC 5.9% TTM and only 3.3–3.5% in 2024–2025 vs 11.6–18.3% in 2021–2022; WACC is 4.5%. The operating margin is 7.7% TTM vs 16.0% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2022. The return has not become stronger, but follows the commodity price.
- −2Quality of growthRevenue fell three years in a row (€133.6bn in 2022 to 83.6bn in 2025); the 2026 lift (+18% expected) is primarily price, and analysts expect EPS −11% and revenue −8% in 2027. The underlying production growth (over 5%) is nevertheless real.
- −2Moat and pricing powerAs an oil and gas producer, Eni is a price taker; refining, chemicals and Enilive are low-margin, and realised refining margins are €2–3/barrel below benchmark. No real pricing power.
- −3Capital allocationDividend €3.5bn + buybacks €2.1bn TTM vs. FCF of €3.65bn (€2.4bn after leasing); the difference is covered by sales of minority stakes in the satellites (other financing +€5.5bn in 2025), and net debt has risen from €13.5bn (2022) to €21.9bn TTM.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 9.6 vs 4.2–10.4 in 2021–2025 (upper part), EV/EBITDA 6.2 vs 2.4–5.9 and P/B 1.26 vs 0.73–0.97 – the last two above the top of its own range. P/FCF 19.6 vs 4.6–10.6. The stock is up 58% in 52 weeks.
- −3Earnings at a cyclical peakThe low forward P/E rests on EPS +73% in 2026 at high oil and gas prices after the Hormuz closure, while analysts already expect −11% in 2027; at a normalised oil price the multiple is substantially higher.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−7 of −35
- −3Kazakhstan (fines and arbitration)Eni (16.8% of Kashagan) is part of the consortium that has received an environmental fine of USD 4.9bn for sulphur storage; in Karachaganak (Eni 29.25%) Shell and Eni have lost an important step in an arbitration and may have to pay USD 2–4bn to the state.
- −2The Middle East and HormuzRefinery throughput fell 20% year over year to 5.1 m tonnes due to a lack of crude oil after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (and planned maintenance); management cites renewed tensions in the Gulf and cost inflation of 4–6% after the crisis as risks.
- −2Political governanceOn 28/9-2026 Eni introduced a price cap on petrol (€1.99/l) and diesel (€2.19/l) at about 4,000 filling stations for 30 days, with possible extension to year-end; it could cost about €100m a month and was praised by the government. The state is the largest shareholder.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceAfter Q2, Eni raised its 2026 adjusted CFFO guidance to €15bn from €13.8bn and its underlying production growth to over 5% from 3–4%; Q2 net income doubled to €2.3bn.
- +1Organic project portfolioUnderlying production growth of 11% in Q2 from projects in Angola, Mexico and Congo LNG phase 2; 54 organic growth projects in 13–14 countries and about 4% annual growth through 2030.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Forward P/E and analysts' EPS (€2.72 for 2026, +73%) are adjusted figures; reported EPS TTM is €1.66. Earnings for 2026 are lifted by high oil and gas prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; Eni's own guidance is based on Brent at USD 85. Analysts expect FCF of €8.7bn in 2026 (about 12% of the market cap), which contrasts with FCF TTM of €3.65bn – the FCF yield is therefore not given a deduction. Dividend plus buybacks (€5.6bn TTM) exceed FCF TTM, so the buyback does not earn a plus despite a fall in the share count of about 18% since 2021; the payout is partly funded by selling minority stakes in Plenitude and Enilive (minority interests up from 0.5 to 4.9bn). The Italian state is the largest shareholder via CDP and MEF. Credit rating, Venezuela receivables and the Italian special tax have not been investigated.
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