Rankings Pharma & medtech Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Customers are shifting−7
- Future segment−6
- Multiples vs own history and peers−6
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Dividend from FCF+2
- Insider buying+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 268.60 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 285.00 DKK
- Upside to median
- +6.1%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 203.00 – 445.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- −15%
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.2
- Forward P/E
- 12.7
- PEG
- 5.77
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−15 of −30
- −6Future segmentLosing market share in obesity to Lilly (Zepbound/Mounjaro), and its share outside the US is also falling. CagriSema disappointed with 20.4% weight loss vs an expected about 25%. The Wegovy pill (over 5m prescriptions since January) is a bright spot, but Lilly's orforglipron is coming as a competitor.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue grew 25% in 2024 but only 6.4% in 2025, and consensus expects −2.9% in 2026 and +1.3% in 2027. EPS is expected to fall from DKK 23.03 to 21.66. Guidance is 0 to −6% adjusted sales; growth must come from volume while prices fall about 10% a year.
- −2ROIC and marginROIC has fallen from 88.6% (2023) to 68.2% (2024), 42.6% (2025) and 39.2% TTM after the Catalent plants and heavy capex (DKK 56bn TTM). The gross margin has gone from 85.0% to 82.0% and is expected at 79.8% in 2026. Still world-class (operating margin 49%), but weaker, not stronger.
- −2Capital allocationImpairments of DKK 6.3bn on pipeline assets in Q2 2026, including DKK 4.0bn on monlunabant, on top of the capacity build-up that now meets falling prices. Debt rose from DKK 27bn (2023) to 140bn to fund Catalent and acquisitions.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 11.6 vs 13.7–40.0 in 2021–25 (average about 29); EV/EBITDA 6.9 vs 9.9–27.9; P/FCF 14.7 vs 24.5–37.6. The lowest level in at least five years and in line with big pharma without growth (P/E 8–14), but EPS is expected to fall and a patent expiry is approaching, so the low multiple is partly deserved.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−25 of −35
- −7Customers are shiftingUS prescriptions for Wegovy injections fell 22%, and self-pay patients now make up 35% of volume at lower prices. Patients are switching to Lilly's tirzepatide.
- −6Price pressure and regulationNovo has accepted the Medicare price deal on obesity drugs and the IRA's negotiated maximum prices on semaglutide from January 2027; Medicare negotiated a 71% discount on Wegovy. On top come the MFN deal and Medicaid.
- −4Patent expiryThe semaglutide patent expired in Canada, Brazil and China in 2026, with copies following, and the US/EU follow in the early 2030s. The capital markets day gave no clear answer on how the loss will be covered.
- −4Pipeline executionThe ZEUS trial of ziltivekimab failed, monlunabant was written down by DKK 4.0bn, and CagriSema did not meet expectations.
- −2Guidance and targetsThe capital markets day on 21/9/2026 offered only growth 'in line with the industry' and a broadly stable margin towards 2030, with no concrete figures. The stock fell 7.7% on the day, and Danske Bank called it disappointing.
- −2LawsuitsIn July 2026 a US judge allowed parts of the shareholder lawsuit over misleading statements ahead of the CagriSema data to proceed. There is also a class action over an artificially sustained semaglutide shortage and 3,763 injury cases in the GLP-1 MDL (June 2026).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 guidance for adjusted sales and operating profit was raised in August from −4 to −12% to 0 to −6% (CER); Q2's adjusted operating profit of DKK 33.4bn beat consensus of 28.7bn.
- +2Dividend from FCFDividend yield 4.6%. Dividends (DKK 52.0bn) and buybacks (5.9bn) totalling about DKK 58bn TTM are below FCF of 75.8bn.
- +1Insider buyingBoard member Stephan Engels bought 6,450 shares for DKK 2.0m at DKK 313 on 17/11/2025. No insider selling recorded. The anniversary shares in August 2026 (74 per person) do not count.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Sales are expected to fall 0–6% in 2026 (adjusted, CER) with about 10% annual price declines. The capital markets day on 21/9 gave no concrete financial targets for 2030 (share −7.7%). Novo has net debt of about DKK 95bn, not net cash. A low multiple, but it reflects that the semaglutide patent expires in the early 2030s. Consensus is Hold (16 of 25).
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
