Rankings Commodities & uranium Lion One Metals
Lion One Metals
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and refinancing−13
- Dilution−9
- Margin and cash flow−6
Strengths
- Revenue growth+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 0.86 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 369m
- Cash runway
- 3 months
- Cash / debt
- 8.2 / 57.0m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +33%
Bull case
The refinancing succeeds without a new large issue, the gold price holds, and Tuvatu lifts production towards 6–8,000 oz per quarter. Then EBITDA could reach 50+ m C$, and an EV of 5x gives equity of approx. 200m C$ (fully diluted approx. 0.35 C$) – just under a doubling; 3x+ requires an acquisition or a marked resource upgrade.
Bear case
The refinancing fails or happens via a deep issue at 0.08–0.10 C$, or Nebari takes over the asset. With approx. 43m C$ of senior debt ahead of shareholders and secured convertible holders, the stock could fall 50–90%.
Catalysts
- Oct 2026Annual accounts 2025/26 (expected approx. 25/9-2026 or shortly after) with cash, production and going concern assessmentgradual stockanalysis.com
- 31 Dec 2026Deadline for repayment/refinancing of the Nebari loan (about 31.2 m US$) under the forbearance agreementbinary kalkinemedia.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – senior loan in forbearance with deadline 31/12-2026, earlier default, negative operating cash flow and a management without a permanent CEO.
Next financingCash was C$8.2m at 31/3-2026; the July financing brought C$17.5m gross, but part went to curing a default to Nebari. The Nebari loan (about US$31.2m = C$43m) must be repaid by 31/12-2026 - that is the real deadline (about 3 months). Total debt about C$57m incl. the convertible. The refinancing is expected to combine new debt, equity issue and cash flow, i.e. more dilution in Q4 2026.
Warrants & convertiblesC$14m 10% subordinated, secured convertible bonds at C$0.13 (approx. 107.7m shares, 4-year term, issued June/July 2026) – in the money at C$0.185. C$3.5m in units at C$0.13 (approx. 26.9m shares; warrant terms not investigated). Older warrants and Nebari's equity portion are not counted. 12-month dilution: 402.9m shares (Sep. 2025) to 429.8m plus 107.7m conversion shares = approx. +33%.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined; insiders own only c. 0.6% according to stockanalysis. Who bought the convertible has not been verified (MarketScreener names Concept Capital Management as an investor of c. C$17m).
Largest ownersNot examined. Institutions c. 1.2%, insiders c. 0.6%; Nebari holds a small equity stake from the 2024 agreement (US$2m).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$80m. (2) Hot theme: yes – gold at high levels. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – refinancing before 31/12-2026, but it is more a risk than an opportunity. (4) Major partner: no – the Arete agreement was terminated. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – the loan matures in 3 months. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −39% in a year and P/B 0.35.
Why this asymmetryA producing gold mine at P/B 0.35 looks cheap, but the debt in forbearance, the convertible at C$0.13 and the missing management mean that most of any upside goes to lenders and new investors. The downside is real and close.
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.14 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −45%
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.8
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−20 of −30
- −6Margin and cash flowGross margin 38% and EBITDA margin 37% TTM on revenue of C$71.8m, but operating cash flow is −C$1.2m and FCF −C$27m TTM; net income (C$10.1m) is carried by one strong quarter (Q2: C$8.4m).
- −3ROICROIC about 5% vs WACC about 10.7%, after several years of negative returns (−10.7% ROCE in 2024).
- −6Operational executionThe Tuvatu mine in Fiji (in operation since late 2023) is small and struggles to hit plan: approx. 3,600 oz gold sold in the quarter to June 2025 and approx. 4,200 oz in the quarter before May 2026, limited by equipment, power supply and grade control problems.
- −5Capital allocationThe share count has risen from 156m (2022) to 430m, and book value per share has fallen from C$0.85 to 0.56; in 2026 money was raised via a 10% convertible at C$0.13 – 30% below today's price.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Valuation vs historyP/B 0.35 vs 0.48 (2025), 0.66 (2024) and 0.84–1.58 (2021–23), and EV/EBITDA 4.2 vs 8.4 in 2025. Cheap on paper, but the discount reflects debt in forbearance and a convertible that lifts fully diluted EV to approx. 5–6x EBITDA.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−30 of −35
- −13Debt and refinancingNebari declared default as of 31/1-2026 and raised the interest to a penalty rate. The forbearance agreement from 23/7-2026 postpones repayment of approx. US$31.2m (approx. C$43m – over half the market cap) to 31/12-2026 for a fee of US$1–2m; refinancing is required before year-end.
- −9DilutionJuly 2026: C$14m in 10% secured convertible debentures at C$0.13 (approx. 108m new shares) and C$3.5m in units at C$0.13 (approx. 27m shares) – approx. 30% dilution in total on top of +36% in share count over the last year.
- −5Management and governanceCEO Campbell Olsen was appointed in February 2026 and left as early as 1/5-2026, when the planned strategic investment of C$15m from Arete Capital was terminated; the company is run by an acting CEO (former CFO) and an acting CFO, and shareholders have tried to replace board members.
- −3Gold price and jurisdictionWith low production and high unit costs, cash flow depends entirely on the high gold price; one small asset in Fiji with no diversification.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Revenue growthRevenue has risen from C$1.3m (quarter to Dec. 2023) to C$14-23m per quarter in 2025/26, and the mine has a positive gross margin.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). The fiscal year ends 30/6; the latest quarter on stockanalysis is as of 31/3-2026, and the annual report for 2025/26 (expected about 25/9-2026) has not been read. Cash after the July financing and the use of the proceeds (payment of interest/default towards Nebari) is not verified. Market cap is about C$79.5m (about DKK 369m) at 429.8m shares × C$0.185 – in line with Nordnet; fully diluted with the convertible (about 108m shares at C$0.13) it is about C$100m. Latest production figures and any guidance for 2026/27 have not been found. Insider trades and largest owners have not been investigated in detail. No analyst coverage (forecast 404).
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