Rankings Pharma & medtech Ocugen
Ocugen
36
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−15
- Funding and going concern−8
- Binary dependence and data quality−8
Strengths
- No documented strengths.
How the score is built
From 100 to 36, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.72 USD
- Median analyst target
- 10.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +1348.9%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 8.00 – 22.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −54%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−28 of −30
- −15MarginRevenue USD 4.6m (TTM, licence and collaboration income) vs an operating loss of 68.9m. The operating loss has been USD 55-89m every year in 2021-2025, and the net loss rose 46% in H1 2026.
- −7Capital allocationThe share count rose 11% over a year to 339m shares. In May 2026 convertible bonds of USD 130m were issued at 6.75% interest with conversion at USD 2.68 (about 48m new shares) – expensive capital, and equity is now negative (−16.6m).
- −6Moat and competitionThe gene-independent modifier gene therapy (OCU400) is new, but all three programmes face established competition: Syfovre and Izervay are approved in geographic atrophy, Nanoscope (MCO-010) is further along in RP, and several oral agents are in phase 3 in Stargardt.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales 72.9 vs 16.7-95.6 in 2022-2025, i.e. in the middle of its own history. P/B cannot be used, as equity is negative. Revenue is negligible, so the price is really a payment for the pipeline.
- −4PeersEV of USD 334m is on par with 4D Molecular Therapeutics (EV 364m, phase 3 in wet AMD, 361m in cash) and about a third of MeiraGTx (EV 1.01bn, profitable via the Lilly deal). Ocugen has only USD 12m in net cash and no large partner.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−23 of −35
- −8Funding and going concernThe 10-Q for Q2 2026 mentions 'substantial doubt' about continued operations. Cash burn was USD 34m in H1 and is rising with three simultaneous phase 3 studies; by the formula, cash of 100m lasts approx. 18 months, and a BLA and launch require more capital.
- −8Binary dependence and data qualityThe value rests on topline from the phase 3 study liMeliGhT (140 patients, 2:1 vs untreated control without sham) in Q1 2027. The primary endpoint, LDNA navigation, is new and not validated in earlier approvals, and the phase 1/2 data came from small, open groups.
- −3Litigation and short pressureRepeated class actions and derivative suits (including after the Covaxin case in 2021) create ongoing costs, and 31.8% of free float is sold short (about 16 days of trading).
- −4Listing riskThe price is USD 1.02, only 2% above Nasdaq's minimum requirement. A fall below USD 1 for 30 trading days triggers a notice, and with 339m shares and more coming via the convertibles a reverse split is likely if data disappoints.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 0 findings±0 of +15
- No findings recorded.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The USD 88m debt is carrying value; the convertible bonds have a face value of USD 130m (6.75%, 2034, conversion price USD 2.68) plus a derivative of 33.7m. 82.4m is classified as short-term until shareholders approve more shares. The 10-Q contains going concern wording, even though the company says cash lasts into 2028. Largest owners, insider trading and licence agreements (Korea, MENA) have not been reviewed in detail.
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