Rankings Commodities & uranium Patagonia Gold
Patagonia Gold
36
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−14
- Valuation vs history−14
- Debt and liquidity−10
Strengths
- Production start+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 1.97 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 927m
- Cash runway
- 0 months
- Cash / debt
- 0.4 / 100.1m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
Calcatreu quickly reaches stable production of several tens of thousands of ounces a year at gold above US$4,000, repays BRM's US$40m and reduces debt, and the Cap-Oeste underground project adds a second mine. EV/revenue of 19× could then fall to a normal level through growth, and the share price might double; 5x+ requires an acquisition.
Bear case
The scale-up is slow (1,960 oz in the first quarter), debt keeps growing, and Miguens converts loans to shares at a low price or takes the company private. With P/B 6.6, EV/revenue 19 × and only 60% ownership of Calcatreu, the price could fall 50–70%, as before 2025.
Catalysts
- 2026-11 (estimated)Q3 2026 report – first full quarter of ramp-up at Calcatreu (production, sales, debt)gradual manilatimes.net
- 31 Dec 2027Maturity of the Cantomi loan (about US$50 m incl. interest) – extension, conversion or refinancingbinary patagoniagold.com
- Not setFeasibility study for Calcatreu and review of the Cap-Oeste underground option (mentioned as ongoing in the 2025 MD&A)binary patagoniagold.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – a mine in operation and a wealthy major shareholder who has supported the company so far, but empty cash, US$70m in debt, negative working capital and Argentina risk.
Next financingCash is effectively empty (C$0.37m at 30/6-2026) vs spending (operations + capex) of approx. C$9m in the 2nd quarter and C$16m in the 1st quarter. Operations are continuously financed with new loans from the major shareholder and short-term Argentine bank loans; debt rose from US$52.7m to US$70.5m in half a year. The Cantomi loan falls due on 31/12-2027. If Calcatreu does not quickly deliver positive cash flow, an issue, debt conversion or more debt from Miguens is unavoidable.
Warrants & convertiblesNot quantified. No new warrants found in 2025–26; financing has come via debt from Cantomi (Miguens) and Argentine banks plus preference shares in the subsidiary (BRM, 40% of Calcatreu). Debt was previously (2020) converted to shares, so conversion of the Cantomi loan cannot be ruled out.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo open-market buys or sells found (not systematically checked on SEDI). The major shareholder Miguens has instead increased his loans and preference shares.
Largest ownersCarlos J. Miguens about 43.2% (direct/controlled); insiders in total about 65% (stockanalysis). Others not examined.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. DKK 927m, but EV approx. DKK 1.4bn. (2) Hot theme: yes – gold and silver. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – the ramp-up of Calcatreu is gradual; no clear binary event is dated. (4) Major partner: no – only the major shareholder's own companies. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – empty cash and growing debt. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +166% in a year (from C$0.03 in 2024).
Why this asymmetryThe new production is already priced in (EV/revenue 19 ×, record-high P/B), shareholders own only 60% of the main asset, and the major shareholder is also a lender with an empty cash box ahead. The upside requires a flawless scale-up; the downside is a dilutive debt conversion.
How the score is built
From 100 to 36, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.32 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +91%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−25 of −30
- −14MarginRevenue C$16.2m TTM, but gross margin only 9.6%, operating margin -67% and net result -C$12.0m - despite record-high gold prices (counted only here, not again under ROIC). Gross margin was 5% in Q2 2026.
- −5Resource and start-upCalcatreu produced only 1,960 oz AuEq and sold 515 oz in the first quarter with leaching (Q2 2026). The resource (746,000 oz AuEq M&I at 2.36 g/t plus 390,000 oz inferred) is from 2018, and there is no published feasibility study with reserves behind the mine.
- −6Capital allocation and ownership structure in the projectCalcatreu was financed by selling 40% of the project company (preference shares) for US$40m to Black River Mine, a consortium led by major shareholder and chairman Carlos Miguens. BRM gets 80% of free cash flow until US$40m is repaid, and then 40% in perpetuity – ordinary shareholders own only 60% of the main asset.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−14 of −35
- −14Valuation vs historyEV about C$311m - 19.2 × revenue vs 2.0-5.4 × in 2021-24 - and P/B 6.6 vs 0.4-1.2 earlier. The price is up 166% in a year. The high EV is also due to about C$100m in debt, and only 60% of Calcatreu belongs to shareholders.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−21 of −35
- −10Debt and liquidityOnly C$0.36m in cash vs C$100m of debt (US$70.5m, up from US$50m a year ago), current ratio 0.36 and negative working capital of about C$25m. The loan from Miguens-owned Cantomi (about US$50m incl. interest) falls due 31/12-2027; the rest is short-term Argentine bank loans. Operations depend on the major shareholder continuing to lend.
- −5Governance and conflicts of interestCarlos Miguens controls 43.2% of the shares and is at the same time chairman, lender (Cantomi) and preference shareholder in Calcatreu (BRM). Insiders own about 65%, and free float is only about 163m shares – minority shareholders have little influence over the terms.
- −4Argentina riskAll operations are in Argentina: high inflation, peso devaluation and shifting currency and export rules (the company itself trades securities in USD and pesos as currency management). Administrative costs rose in 2025 because of inflation.
- −2Low liquidity in the stockAverage trading of about 104,000 shares a day (about 44,000 C$) and a beta of 3.5 – hard to get out without moving the share price.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Production startCalcatreu started leaching 31/3-2026, and the first doré has been shipped for refining – the company has gone from developer to producer with almost no dilution (+0.3% shares in a year).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Small gold/silver producer in Argentina (Calcatreu in Río Negro, heap leach since 31/3-2026; residual production from Cap-Oeste in Santa Cruz). Reports in USD; stockanalysis' statistics are in CAD, and amounts in the penny object have been converted to CAD. Latest figures as of 30/6-2026; the Q2 MD&A has not been read, only the press release and the 2025 annual MD&A. The resources for Calcatreu and Cap-Oeste date from 2018; no feasibility study or production guidance for Calcatreu has been published (not found). Market cap: 469.75m shares × 0.425 C$ = approx. 200m C$ (approx. 927m DKK, close to Nordnet's 921m). Warrants/options and whether the Cantomi loan can be converted into shares have not been examined.
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