Rankings Pharma & medtech Orion
Orion
71
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Concentration and quality of growth−4
- Patents and generics−4
- Multiples vs own history−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Strong balance sheet and high ROIC+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 71, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 99.80 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 89.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- −10.3%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 55.00 – 115.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +65%
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.3
- Forward P/E
- 18.2
- PEG
- 0.98
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−7 of −30
- −4Concentration and quality of growthAlmost all growth comes from one product, sold by partner Bayer: royalty income has risen from EUR 24m (2021) to EUR 554m (TTM) plus EUR 183m in milestone payments, while product sales have grown only from EUR 1,014m to 1,321m over five years (about 5% a year). Orion controls neither the pricing nor the marketing of Nubeqa.
- −2Capital conversionIn 2025 FCF was only EUR 219m against net income of EUR 500m, because receivables rose by EUR 337m (payments from Bayer). TTM FCF is EUR 393m against EUR 587m in earnings – an FCF margin of 19% against an operating margin of 36%.
- −1Future segmentThe pipeline after Nubeqa is early: ODM-212 has only just entered phase 1b/2, and no significant milestone payments are expected in 2026 (2025 had approx. 180m EUR). The generics and consumer business is growing only slowly.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−8 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 18.6 vs 18.1–27.6 in 2021–2025 and EV/EBITDA 14.3 vs 12.1–19.9 – in the lower half, but P/B is 9.0 vs 6.0–7.9 historically and P/S 5.6 vs 3.9–5.4, i.e. record high on sales and book value after +19% in a year.
- −3FCF yieldFCF yield 3.4% and P/FCF 29; analysts expect EPS of 4.02 EUR in 2026, i.e. below the TTM level of 4.17 EUR, so the forward multiple rests on an earnings decline in H2.
- −2PeersForward P/E 18–16 for 2026–27 and EV/EBIT 14–13 are, according to Inderes, in line with the sector median, but that is a premium relative to large European pharmaceutical companies, which Orion is far less diversified than; Inderes lowered the recommendation to 'Add' with a price target of 83 EUR after the rise.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−11 of −35
- −4Patents and genericsBayer and Orion are pursuing a patent case in Delaware against Alembic, which wants to launch generic darolutamide; the first compound patent expires in October 2030, while later patents run to 2036–2038. A lost patent defence would hit the bulk of Orion's profit.
- −3CompetitionPatent protection on Astellas' Xtandi (enzalutamide), which is used in largely the same stages of prostate cancer, expires from 2027; cheap generic enzalutamide could pressure Nubeqa's growth and price with payers.
- −2One-off itemsAccording to Inderes, Q2 growth (+25% in revenue, +69% in operating result) was partly one-off due to the timing of tablet deliveries to Bayer; H2 is expected to be weaker, as analysts expect lower EPS for the full year than TTM.
- −2Currency and tariffsA significant part of the Nubeqa income comes from the US, so a weak dollar and American drug tariffs/pricing policy hit operating profit directly; the company itself cites tariff uncertainty as a risk.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 guidance narrowed upward after Q2: revenue EUR 2,000–2,100m (from 1,950–2,100) and operating profit EUR 650–750m (from 600–750).
- +2Strong balance sheet and high ROICInterest-bearing net debt fell 98% to EUR 2.5m; ROIC 47% and operating margin 36%, and the dividend (EUR 243m) is below FCF (EUR 393m).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Scored on the B share in Helsinki (ORNBV, EUR). Royalty income from Nubeqa swings from quarter to quarter because tablet deliveries to Bayer are offset against the next quarter's royalty, so the TTM figures may over- or understate the level. US drug price regulation (IRA/MFN) for Nubeqa has not been examined in depth.
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