Rankings Pharma & medtech OssDsign
OssDsign
65
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Quality of growth−7
- Execution and sales organisation−6
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 5
- Price
- 2.29 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 253m
- Cash runway
- 39 months
- Cash / debt
- 152.5 / 0.9m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
The new sales force gets sales back to +20–30% a year (over SEK 200m in 2027), and the gross margin comes back above 95%. The company then approaches break-even. At EV/Sales 4–5, as in 2023–2025, the stock is worth DKK 8–11 (2.5–3x), and an acquisition by a large orthopaedics group could give more.
Bear case
Sales stay flat around SEK 150m, key customers are lost, and the loss of about 50m a year eats the cash in 2–3 years. In the end it requires an issue. The downside is however partly covered by net cash (DKK 1.37 per share).
Catalysts
- H2 2026Expected return of commercial momentum (ABG) and completion of renegotiations with key customersgradual inderes.fi
- 3 Nov 2026Q3 report: shows whether Catalyst sales turn after the rebuilding of the sales forcegradual stockanalysis.com
- 2027-02 (Q4 report)Full-year 2026 figures and any targets for 2027 under the new managementgradual inderes.fi
Risk of going to zerolow - net cash covers about 39% of market cap, runway over three years, no debt, and a product with real revenue and 92% gross margin
Next financingNot necessary for now. With cash of SEK 152.5m and operating burn of c. SEK 12m per quarter, the money lasts over three years. An issue only becomes relevant if sales fail to turn and burn rises.
Warrants & convertiblesOnly incentive programs for management and employees (CEO Mark Waugh granted warrants 8/9-2026); size and strike not reviewed. No convertible loans.
Insiders, last 12 monthsPurchases: CEO Morten Henneveld DKK 442,349 (4/11-2025) and CFO Anders Svensson DKK 422,571 (6/11-2025), both at about DKK 11. Sale: Jill Schiaparelli DKK 79,601 (13/11-2025). CEO Mark Waugh received warrants 8/9-2026.
Largest ownersNot quantified in detail. Institutions own c. 34% and insiders c. 5% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 253m. (2) Hot theme: no, bone replacement is not a market theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, only gradual quarterly figures, no binary events. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes, over three years. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −76% in a year and EV/Sales of 1.5 vs 6–10 historically.
Why this asymmetryThe downside is limited by a large net cash position, no dilution risk and a product with real revenue. The upside is, however, more like 2–3x on a turnaround than 10x, because there is no binary catalyst. It is a turnaround case, not a Circio rocket.
How the score is built
From 100 to 65, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 3.35 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 5.90 SEK
- Upside to median
- +76.1%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 4.30 – 7.50 SEK
- 52-week change
- −73%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −8MarginThe gross margin is high (92%), but the operating margin is −33% TTM, and the operating loss has grown from −SEK 6.9m to −12.3m in Q2. There are losses every year; the best year was 2025 with −27% operating margin.
- −7Quality of growthAfter +35% in 2025, sales fell 18% in H1 2026 (−10% at constant exchange rates) to SEK 74.7m. The cause is too few new salespeople at the end of 2025, salespeople who left the company, and renegotiation of contracts with key customers. Q2 was flat vs Q1.
- −3MoatOssDsign Catalyst is a synthetic bone substitute with good clinical documentation, but the bone graft market is dominated by large orthopaedic companies with broader portfolios and larger sales forces. Sales are almost only in the USA.
- −3Capital allocationOperations have always been financed with issues, most recently a directed issue of about SEK 158m. The money has however been used to build a commercial product with a high gross margin, and the burn has fallen from about 90 to 53m a year.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−3 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 1.5 vs 5.8-9.9 in 2021-2025, and P/B is 1.4 vs 1.7-4.5. The stock is at the bottom of its history, but sales are also falling.
- −2Peers and absolute levelEV of about SEK 241m for 164m in revenue with a 92% gross margin is low for medtech. But there is no earnings or positive FCF (FCF yield -13.5%), so the price rests on growth returning.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −6Execution and sales organisationThe profit warning on 10/4/2026 sent the stock down 40%. Catalyst sales fell 17% in SEK in Q1 because sellers left and recruitment was slowed. A new sales director (Adam McCollister) is to rebuild the sales force.
- −3Customer concentrationRenegotiations with key customers gave a temporary sales drop in Q1. According to management they are 'progressing', but they are not concluded, and product and customer mix have pressed the gross margin from 96.8% to 92.1%.
- −3One product, one market and currencyAlmost all revenue comes from one product in the US. The weak USD (from 10.2 to 9.2 SEK) alone has cost about 8 percentage points of growth in H1.
- −2ManagementThe CEO has been replaced (Morten Henneveld has been succeeded by the American CEO Mark Waugh), and the sales leadership is new. The turnaround is not yet visible in the figures.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +4Net cashNet cash of SEK 151.6m (approx. 39% of the market cap) and almost no debt. With an operating burn of 11.8m in Q2 the cash lasts over three years.
- +1Insider buyingCEO Morten Henneveld bought for DKK 442,000 and CFO Anders Svensson for DKK 423,000 in November 2025 at about DKK 11 per share.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404), but ABG covers the company (fair value DKK 4.0–6.2). Market cap checks out: 110.6m shares × SEK 3.475 = SEK 384m ≈ DKK 253m. Stockanalysis shows −4.5% in share count over a year, which the company has not confirmed. The owner list and the size of the incentive programmes have not been reviewed. Cash at 30/6 (152.5m) is from stockanalysis; the company's quarterly release did not state the figure in the excerpt.
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