Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Pharol
Pharol
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Capital allocation−8
- Future segment−6
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Counterclaim removed+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.67 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 549m
- Cash runway
- 212 months
- Cash / debt
- 42.5 / 0.0m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
The Rioforte estate distributes more than the 5.79% that Pharol has booked. At a 10–15% recovery (EUR 90–135m) plus the cash of EUR 42.5m, NAV becomes EUR 130–175m, i.e. 1.8–2.4x the current market cap, and Davidson Kempner is pushing for a distribution to shareholders. 3x+ requires over 20% recovery.
Bear case
Rioforte distributes nothing for many years or less than book value, and the new management spends the cash on poor investments in distressed companies. The stock falls back to P/B 0.4–0.5 (EUR 0.04–0.05), i.e. −45–55%. That it goes towards zero is unlikely with EUR 42.5m in cash.
Catalysts
- 2026–27First investments or new strategy under chairman João Moreira Rato (approved by the ECB on 17/8-2026, mandate to 2028)gradual eco.sapo.pt
- OpenDistribution from the Rioforte bankruptcy estate on the recognised claim of EUR 897m (booked at 5.79%). Each additional percentage point in recovery equals approx. EUR 9m, approx. 12% of market cap.binary eco.sapo.pt
Risk of going to zerolow - cash and placements equal about 58% of market cap, no debt and small cash burn; the risk is not zero, but that the price falls back toward the cash value
Next financingNo funding need: EUR 42.5m in cash and placements vs spending of approx. EUR 2–3m a year. No restructuring, debt conversion or reverse split. The real risk is that the new Davidson Kempner-backed management spends the cash on risky investments in distressed telecom and tech companies instead of distributing it.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found. 74.7m treasury shares (896.5m in total, 821.8m outstanding). Bonuses for 2023–2026 are provisioned, but whether they are paid in shares has not been investigated.
Insiders, last 12 monthsDavidson Kempner (Tavrion PT04) reported 19.56% (175.3m shares) on 26/6-2026, and Dualis Capital 5.40% (48.4m shares) on 8/7-2026. Purchase prices are not stated. No management trades found.
Largest ownersTavrion PT04 (Davidson Kempner) 19.56%, Dualis Capital SIC 5.40%, treasury shares about 8.3% of total capital; the rest dispersed
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 74m. (2) Hot theme: no – legal claim and shell holding. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – Rioforte distribution and new strategy, but without dates. (4) Major partner: partial – Davidson Kempner owns 19.6%, but is a hedge fund, not an industrial partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – cash lasts over 15 years at current spending. (6) Price near the bottom after a large decline: no – +43% in a year and at the top of the five-year range.
Why this asymmetryLow zero risk thanks to the cash, and the Rioforte claim gives a real option. But the market already prices the claim close to book value after +43% over a year, there is no date for a distribution, and the new strategy may use up the cash. Realistic upside is 1.5-2.5x, not 5-10x.
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.10 EUR
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +19%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−29 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue. EBITDA was −EUR 1.67m and net result −EUR 0.97m in H1 2026; personnel costs more than doubled to EUR 1.08m due to variable and multi-year bonuses. The profit in 2025 (EUR 2.1m) came from tax refunds.
- −6Future segmentThere is no business to grow. The new strategy is to invest in 'early-stage projects' and 'companies in difficulty' within telecom and technology. The plan is untested and has no specific investments.
- −5
- −8Capital allocationThe company lost almost its entire investment of EUR 897m in Rioforte paper (2014) and its 39.7% stake in Oi. Own shares have been bought for EUR 164.8m, and now rising bonuses are being paid in a company with no operations.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.79 vs 0.41–0.67 in 2021–2025, i.e. the highest in at least five years, after the price has risen 43% in a year without new findings in the Rioforte case.
- −5Absolute level (NAV)The market cap of approx. EUR 73.6m corresponds to EUR 42.5m in cash and investments plus approx. EUR 31m for the Rioforte claim. If you deduct the running costs of approx. EUR 3m a year (capitalised), the market prices the claim close to the book value of EUR 51.9m, even though nothing has been paid out in 12 years. Holding companies without operations normally trade at a 20–40% discount to NAV.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−12 of −35
- −6Uncertain Rioforte recoveryThe court in Luxembourg has recognised the entire claim of EUR 897m, but Pharol itself assumes a recovery of only 5.79% (EUR 51.9m), and the bankruptcy estate has been in proceedings since 2014. The timing and size of a distribution are entirely unknown.
- −4Governance and strategy shiftThe entire board, incl. CEO Luís Palha da Silva, resigned in July 2026 after Davidson Kempner (via Tavrion PT04, 19.56%) proposed João Moreira Rato as chairman. The new course toward distressed companies may use up cash rather than distribute it.
- −2Price risk and liquidityThe price has ranged between EUR 0.04 and 0.09 for five years and is now at the top of the range after +43% over a year. Daily trading is about EUR 58,000.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashEUR 42.5m in cash and financial investments, no bank debt and total liabilities of only EUR 2.6m. Cash equals about 58% of market value.
- +2Counterclaim removedThe Commercial Court in Luxembourg acquitted Pharol in February 2026 of the EUR 750m claim from the bankruptcy estate of Espírito Santo Internacional and at the same time recognised Pharol's full claim against Rioforte.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Pharol (formerly Portugal Telecom SGPS) has no operating business. The assets are cash and financial investments (42.5m EUR) plus debt instruments in the insolvent Rioforte (nominal 897m EUR, carried at 51.9m EUR = 5.79%). Industry is set to 'Finance, data & insurance brokerage' as the closest (investment holding/shell); no industry on the list fits. The stockanalysis path is quote/eli/PHR (quote/lis/PHR gives 404). The announcement of 26/8-2026 about Oi's bankruptcy and its possible impact on Pharol has not been read in detail. Market cap calculated myself: 821.8m outstanding shares (excl. treasury shares; 896.5m in total) × 0.0896 EUR ≈ 73.6m EUR ≈ 549m kr. No analysts.
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