Rankings Pharma & medtech PILA PHARMA
PILA PHARMA
40
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−8
- Funding−7
Strengths
- Ownership+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.16 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 56m
- Cash runway
- 9 months
- Cash / debt
- 13.4 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +45%
Bull case
Part 1 shows that 16 mg ×2 is tolerated without hyperthermia and gives a weight signal. Part 2 shows over 5% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 12 weeks with an oral tablet that does not work via incretins, and that could attract an obesity partner. The market cap could then go from about SEK 80m to 300–800m (4–10x). The obesity theme draws a lot of attention even to small signals.
Bear case
High doses cause side effects (hyperthermia, reduced heat sensation), or the weight does not move, as in the rat experiments and the diabetes study. Part 2 must be financed with an issue below DKK 1, and the share count doubles. The price could fall toward DKK 0.3–0.7.
Catalysts
- 2026-09 (first center opened)Recruitment for part 1 of PP-CT04 (8 participants, 12 weeks, titration up to 16 mg ×2)gradual hurbra.se
- Turn of the year 2026/27Result of part 1: safety and tolerability at high doses plus the first weight databinary inderes.fi
- H1 2027Financing of part 2 (38 participants), probably an issuebinary inderes.fi
- summer 2027 (analyst estimate)Result of part 2 of PP-CT04 with weight change after 12 weeks vs placebobinary hurbra.se
Risk of going to zerohigh – no efficacy data, only SEK 13m in cash, part 2 is not funded, and the preclinical data were negative
Next financingCash of SEK 13.4m (30/6) covers part 1 of PP-CT04, and the company writes 'well into H1 2027'. Part 2 with 38 participants and a possible erythromelalgia study require new capital, probably an issue in H1 2027 after data from part 1. Quarterly spending of 4.5m is an estimate with the study under way; historically it was 2-3m.
Warrants & convertiblesTO2 from the 2025 unit issue was exercised in February 2026 and raised SEK 5.4m. No further outstanding warrant series or convertibles were found. Part 2 of the study must be financed with a new issue, which will probably be a new unit issue with warrants.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo verified insider buys or sells within 12 months. Dorte X. Gram has moved 5,000,010 shares between her own companies (Xenia Pharma ApS to Gram Equity Invest AB). She has previously bought shares (e.g. 12,700 shares at DKK 3.93 on 30/6; the year is not verified).
Largest ownersVirala Oy 15.0%, Dorte X. Gram (via Gram Equity Invest) 13.8%, the rest spread with Avanza and Nordnet as the largest custodian banks (Affärsvärlden, April 2026). Insiders own approx. 19% (Stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 53–56m. (2) Hot theme: yes, obesity is the hottest theme in biotech. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, part 1 at year-end and part 2 in summer 2027. (4) Major partner: no, Gubra is a CRO and not a partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 9 months, and part 2 is not funded. (6) Price near the bottom: no, only −18% in a year; the price has been stable around DKK 1.5–1.9 despite negative rat data.
Why this asymmetryThe obesity theme and the small market cap give lottery-ticket upside, but the scientific basis is weak. The rats did not lose weight, the earlier dose gave minimal effect, and part 1 is a safety study with 6 active patients. The share price has not fallen, so there is no 'bottom' discount, and part 2 requires a dilutive issue.
How the score is built
From 100 to 40, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.37 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −35%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 0.28m vs an operating loss of 7.8m and a net loss of 16.8m (TTM). The accumulated deficit is SEK 114m.
- −8Quality of growthThere is no evidence of an effect on weight. The rat studies at Gubra showed no effect on body weight (the company explains this with too low exposure), and in the earlier diabetes study 4 mg ×2 daily gave only minimal weight reduction vs placebo.
- −4MoatXEN-D0501 is an in-licensed TRPV1 antagonist. The obesity market is dominated by GLP-1/GIP drugs from Novo and Lilly (15–20% weight loss) and oral successors. A small company without efficacy data has no moat.
- −6Capital allocationThe company has shifted its indication from diabetes to obesity and now also erythromelalgia (orphan). A clinical obesity study is being started despite inconclusive preclinical data, and the cash covers only part 1.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B 5.4 vs 3.6–19 in 2021–2025, at the low end. The market value (approx. SEK 80–86m) is unchanged from the end of 2025, even though the rat data were negative.
- −5PeersEV of about SEK 80m for an obesity program without efficacy data in animals or humans is high. The price is carried by the obesity theme rather than by data, while Nordic peers with clinical efficacy data trade at the same level.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−20 of −35
- −7FundingCash was SEK 13.4m at 30/6. That only covers part 1 of PP-CT04 (8 participants). Part 2 (38 participants) and parallel studies require new financing, and the money lasts 'well into H1 2027'.
- −5DilutionThe share count has risen from 16.1m (2021) to 45.7m (+184%), of which +45% over a year after the unit issue in 2025 and TO2 in February 2026.
- −6Clinical and safety riskPart 1 is a safety study with 6 active patients and 2 on placebo, where the dose is titrated up to 16 mg ×2, i.e. up to 4x the previous dose. TRPV1 antagonists as a class are known for hyperthermia and reduced heat sensitivity, and weight is only a secondary endpoint.
- −2Key person and governanceThe founder Dorte X. Gram is the central person with 1 employee. Her shares have been moved between her own companies (Xenia Pharma to Gram Equity Invest), and the company is entirely dependent on her.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1OwnershipThe founder owns 13.8%, and the Finnish industrial family Virala Oy is the largest owner with 15.0%. There are long-term anchor investors behind the company.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404); Carlsquare and Analyst Group cover the company for a fee. Stockanalysis shows only SEK 3.3m in cash, because c. 13m is classified as other assets. The company reports SEK 13.4m in liquid funds at 30/6, and that figure is used here. Market cap: 45.68m shares × SEK 1.75 = SEK 80m ≈ DKK 53m vs Nordnet's DKK 56m (c. 6% higher). Quarterly burn is an estimate (the study has just started). Insider purchases within 12 months not verified.
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