Rankings Pharma & medtech Observe Medical
Observe Medical
40
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Funding and going concern−11
- Margin−10
- Capital allocation−8
Strengths
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.62 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 86m
- Cash runway
- 3 months
- Cash / debt
- 7.8 / 42.3m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +605%
Bull case
Safeti Max and the new closed drainage products win tenders via the 28-plus distributor countries (India, the Philippines), sales double to NOK 40–50m in 2028, and gross margin is lifted towards 40%. The company reaches break-even without a new issue, and Sippi is launched; then a value of NOK 300–400m (2.5–3x) can be defended.
Bear case
The Q4 target is missed, Innovation Norway tightens the covenant, and 20–30m NOK must be raised at 0.4–0.6 NOK per share (30–50% dilution). With a 30% gross margin and the EU's IPI rules against Chinese production, the stock could halve or worse.
Catalysts
- Oct 2026Laboratory data on the infection barrier in the UnoMeter Safeti Max is presented at the ICS conferencegradual mb.cision.com
- Q4 2026Target of positive operating cash flow; if not reached, new financing is required (going concern qualification)binary mb.cision.com
- 2027-02 (H2 report, expected approx. 27/2 as in 2026)Full-year 2026 figures: sales, cash and new covenant with Innovation Norwaygradual news.cision.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – there is a real product with growing sales and a cleaned-up balance sheet (equity ratio 32%), but cash is below one quarter's burn, the covenant has been breached, and the auditor/management write of material going concern uncertainty
Next financingCash of NOK 7.8m at 30/6 lasts about 3 months at H1 spending (operating cash flow -17.0m and investments -1.3m), or about 5 months at the adjusted EBITDA burn of about 4m per quarter. Management expects positive operating cash flow in Q4 2026; if that slips, new financing (issue or loan) is required in Q4 2026-Q1 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesOptions granted to the CEO in April 2026 (number and strike not reviewed). No convertible loans found; debt includes the Innovation Norway loan of NOK 15m (covenant of 10m in free liquidity, breached as of 30/6, waiver granted).
Insiders, last 12 monthsPurchases 9/4-2026: Glimt Invest AS (chairman Terje Bakken) 182,000 shares, CEO Jørgen Mann 50,000, CFO Johan Fagerli 30,000 (about NOK 0.25m in total). No sales found.
Largest ownersNot quantified in detail. Insiders own c. 19% and institutions c. 1% (stockanalysis); free float only c. 27m shares. Flagging notice of 4/6-2026 not reviewed.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 86m. (2) Hot theme: no, urine meters are not a market theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, ICS data and Q4 cash flow, but no binary clinical data. (4) Major partner: no, only smaller distributors. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 3–5 months. (6) Price near the bottom: no, +43% in a year.
Why this asymmetrySales are growing and the balance sheet has been cleaned up after the debt restructuring, but the valuation (7x sales at a 30% gross margin) is already high, and the cash is almost empty. Without a large partner or a binary catalyst, 5–10x is unrealistic, and the next issue can take the upside.
How the score is built
From 100 to 40, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.85 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +32%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginThe gross margin is only 27–30% on single-use urine meters produced in China, and the operating margin is −148% (TTM: revenue NOK 21.9m, operating result −32.5m). Adjusted EBITDA was −8.3m in H1 2026 on sales of 14.4m.
- −3Quality of growthSales rose 27% in H1 2026 and order intake 73% vs H2 2025, but H2 2025 was weak, and TTM revenue of NOK 21.9m is still below the 2023 level (27.9m). Growth is volatile (−38% in 2024, +9% in 2025).
- −4MoatUnoMeter once had 50–60% of the European market, but the company is now a small distributor-driven player with 5 employees, contract manufacturing in China and low gross margin. The product is won in public tenders where price matters a lot, and the company itself mentions competition from products with better features.
- −8Capital allocationThe share count has risen about 605% over a year after directed issues and a subsequent issue totaling NOK 58.5m (of which 8m debt conversion, 116.9m new shares) in 2025. The acquisition of Biim Ultrasound ended with a full write-down of NOK 41.7m and wind-down.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 7.3 vs 4.3-17.8 in 2021-2025 (middle of the range), and P/B is 4.3 vs 0.9-4.9 (at the top). There is no discount vs history, even though the company is still burning cash.
- −6Peers and absolute levelEV of NOK 160m for 22m in revenue with a 30% gross margin is expensive: Established producers of urological consumables with profits typically trade at 3-6x sales. FCF yield is -34%, and net debt is 34.5m.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−21 of −35
- −11Funding and going concernThe company had NOK 7.8m as of 30/6 after operating burn of 17m in H1 (incl. the NOK 15m loan from Innovation Norway). The liquidity covenant of 10m was breached (waiver received afterwards), and management writes of material uncertainty about going concern if the company does not reach positive operating cash flow in Q4 2026.
- −5DilutionWith cash of less than one quarter's burn, a new share issue at a discount is likely if the Q4 target is missed. The company issued shares at approx. NOK 0.50 in 2025, and the CEO was granted options in April 2026.
- −3Regulation (EU IPI rules)A significant part of the products is made in China and sold via public tenders in the EU. The new IPI rules from June 2025 restrict Chinese medical devices in tenders above EUR 5m, and the company calls the effect uncertain.
- −2Pipeline (Sippi)The digital urine meter Sippi has no launch date, and the company itself writes that limited funds may delay the launch. The company depends on distributors and key people.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Insider buyingThe chairman's company Glimt Invest bought 182,000 shares, the CEO 50,000 and the CFO 30,000 on 9 April 2026 (small amounts, about NOK 0.25m in total).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). Market cap checks out: 136.15m shares × NOK 0.922 = NOK 125.5m ≈ DKK 86m, same as Nordnet. Reports only semi-annually; the H1 2026 result (+NOK 5.6m) is inflated by a non-cash gain of 18m on the wind-down of Biim Ultrasound. The shareholder list (top 5), the exercise price of the options and the MFN announcement 'Split OBSRV 15:1' from January 2026 have not been reviewed. Sippi has no public launch date.
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