Rankings Pharma & medtech Protagonist Therapeutics
Protagonist Therapeutics
73
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Absolute price level−8
- Multiples vs own history−7
- Quality of growth−5
Strengths
- Two FDA approvals+3
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 73, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 139.37 USD
- Median analyst target
- 176.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +26.6%
- Analysts
- 14
- Target range
- 149.00 – 225.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +77%
- P/E (trailing)
- 114.1
- Forward P/E
- 65.3
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−15 of −30
- −5Quality of growthRevenue is one-off payments, not sales: USD 434m in 2024, 46m in 2025, expected 542m in 2026 and 203m in 2027 (-62%) with EPS 4.79 → -0.20. Q2 2026 (213.5m) was 192.4m from Takeda's opt-out payment and no royalties.
- −4Margin and core operationsWithout milestones, operations are loss-making: R&D 42.1 and administration USD 12.6m in Q2 (approx. 220m a year), and management expects R&D to rise markedly in H2 (PN-881 phase 2, obesity programmes). Royalties do not yet cover the costs.
- −4Moat and controlProtagonist controls none of its approved products: Icotyde is commercially owned by J&J (royalty only 6–10%, approx. 7.25% on average at 4bn USD sales), and the company sold its 50/50 profit share in rusfertide to Takeda for 400m USD plus 14–29% royalty. The obesity candidate PN-477 is only in phase 1 (oral version delayed to 2027) in a crowded field.
- −2Capital allocationThe share count rises about 4% a year (share-based pay and options), and there are no buybacks despite net cash of USD 840m; costs are being stepped up in new early programs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−15 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own historyP/B 11.1 vs 2.5–8.9 in 2021–2025 and forward P/E 70 vs 36–60 in 2024–2025; the market value has risen from USD 2.3bn to 9.3bn in under two years and +120% over 52 weeks. Trailing P/E 118 and EV/Sales 30.
- −8Absolute price levelEV about USD 8.2bn after the Q3 payment; earnings yield 0.9% and FCF yield 1.4% (inflated by one-off payments). Even with Icotyde at USD 4bn and rusfertide at 1.5bn a year, royalties give only about USD 0.6bn - several years out. The price assumes full success plus a takeover premium.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−9 of −35
- −4Commercial risk (Icotyde)J&J discloses only 18,000 prescriptions to 11,000 patients after the first full quarter, not sales. Icotyde has to win against injectable IL-23 agents with few doses a year (Tremfya, Skyrizi), cheap Stelara biosimilars and oral TYK2 inhibitors, and Protagonist has no influence over pricing and marketing.
- −3Priced-in takeover expectationWSJ wrote in October 2025 that J&J was negotiating to buy Protagonist (stock +39% on the day); no deal has come in a year. 12.6% of the shares are sold short (15 days to cover). If no bid comes, part of the share price may disappear.
- −2Insider tradingInsiders sold 161,130 shares for USD 16.4m in the quarter to July 2026, incl. CEO Dinesh Patel, and several sales in January–March; no insider buys. Insiders own only 0.6%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Two FDA approvalsIcotyde (oral IL-23 peptide, psoriasis) approved 18/3-2026 with USD 50m in milestone, and Takeda's Mimrylo (rusfertide, polycythemia vera) approved 28/8-2026, triggering USD 275m; a further up to USD 580 + 775m in milestones.
- +2Net cashCash and securities of USD 849.5m at 30/6-2026 and debt of 9m; with the payment of 275m in Q3 over USD 1bn (approx. 11% of market cap). No need for an issue.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Royalty/milestone biotech: revenue and earnings are driven by one-off payments (Takeda opt-out USD 200m recognised in Q2 2026; a further USD 275m triggered by the rusfertide approval on 28/8/2026 is included in Q3), so trailing P/E, ROIC and FCF are not representative. J&J does not disclose Icotyde sales, so the royalty income is unknown. The takeover chatter (WSJ, October 2025) has been neither confirmed nor denied. Peers (royalty companies) not systematically compared. The reel claim of '10x in 2026' requires about USD 93bn in market cap – unrealistic; even a takeover typically gives a 30–60% premium. Analysis, not investment advice.
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