Rankings Pharma & medtech Recursion Pharmaceuticals
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
46
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Dilution−8
- Segment of the future (pipeline)−6
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Improved guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 46, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 3.83 USD
- Median analyst target
- 7.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +82.8%
- Analysts
- 7
- Target range
- 4.00 – 10.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −31%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−26 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin about −1,000% (TTM). Net loss $519m on revenue of $54.9m (TTM). Q2 2026 brought a net loss of $131m against $7.7m in revenue. Costs are being cut (Q2 loss −24% y/y), but there is no path to break-even in sight without an approved product.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue is pure milestone and collaboration income and very uneven. Q2 2026 was $7.7m against $19.2m a year earlier (−60%), because Roche project phases ended. 2026 consensus is $41.8m against about $75m in 2025, a drop of about 44%.
- −6Segment of the future (pipeline)No products are on the market, and the most advanced programme is in Phase 2. REC-4881 (FAP) shows a 47% median reduction in polyp burden at week 13; a registrational study is planned for 2H 2027 at the earliest, and 4 of 26 stopped due to side effects. REC-1245 shows 3 PRs and a DCR of 91.7% (n=12), but the data are early. REC-617, REC-3565 and REC-4539 only read out in 2027, and REC-7735 gets dose-escalation data in 1H 2028. In May 2025 three Phase 2 programmes were stopped: REC-994, REC-2282 and REC-3964.
- −3Moat (AI platform)The platform is validated by partners. Roche/Genentech has paid over $216m, and Sanofi $144m after an option on the first development candidate programme ($10m, Oct 2026). But the platform has not yet delivered an approved drug, and the first in-house candidates (REC-994, REC-2282) failed or were shelved.
- −2Capital allocationThe Exscientia merger (Nov 2024) was followed by cuts, several programmes halted and the sale of Exscientia GmbH (2025). Management has since cut cash opex guidance to below $375m and focused the pipeline, but the ongoing burn of about $350m a year is funded with dilution.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −4EV/sales vs own historyEV/sales is about 32 (TTM) and P/S about 41. That is mid-range for its own history (FY2022–25: EV/S 21–40) and above FY2025 (20.8). Revenue is falling, though, so the forward multiple is higher (EV about $1.6bn / 2026e $41.8m ≈ 38).
- −3Price vs assets/pipelineP/B is 2.1. That is at the low end of its own history (1.9–5.3), but a market value of about $2.2bn for an early pipeline with no registrational study is not cheap next to the calibration (Editas, Quantum-Si).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−23 of −35
- −8DilutionThe share count has risen from about 527m (Jan 2026) to about 620m pro forma (+about 18% in 9 months). Sources: ATM sales of 23.7m shares for about $86m in Q3 and a share issue on 15 Oct of 61.54m shares at 3.25, about 22% below that day's close of 4.16. Stockanalysis shows +41% y/y, and about $214m remains on the $300m ATM programme.
- −4Cash flow/runwayFCF is −$352m (TTM). Cash was $561m at 30 Sep plus about $188m net from the share issue, and the runway is 'into 2029'. So the cash is funded by shares, not operations: before the issue the runway only reached 'early 2028'.
- −4Customer concentrationAlmost all revenue comes from a few partners: Roche/Genentech and Sanofi, plus Bayer and Merck KGaA at an early stage. It was Roche phases ending that halved Q2 revenue. The Bayer collaboration has been scaled down from fibrosis to oncology (lead series stage).
- −3Insider tradingSteady insider selling in 2026 and no insider buying. Director Borgeson has sold blocks of 220,000 + 220,000 + 170,000 shares (about $2.5m), former CEO and director Gibson about 40,000 shares a month (10b5-1), and CEO Najat Khan sells regularly (e.g. 28,298 at 3.35 in March, 22,408 at 3.52).
- −4ExecutionREC-1245 exceeded the maximum tolerated dose at 65 mg (3 of 4 with DLT), and 45 mg has been chosen. Q2 brought an EPS miss and a fall in revenue. The record includes 3 halted Phase 2 programmes (2025), and REC-102 (ENPP1), due a go/no-go decision in 2H26, is not mentioned in the Q2 material.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash was $479m at 30 Jun (cash $545.7m against debt and leases of $66.6m). Pro forma after the share issue it is about $680m, about 30% of market value.
- +1Improved guidanceCash opex guidance for 2026 is cut to below $375m (from below $390m), extending the runway. The Tempus commitment is fixed at $42m over 3 years (previously up to $84m over 2 years).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price $3.64 (close 21 Oct 2026). Note: the close on 15 Oct was 4.16 (4.27 was the close on 7 Oct). Q2 2026: revenue $7.7m (−60% y/y), net loss $131m, cash $556.8m (30 Jun). Preliminary cash at 30 Sep: about $561m incl. $86m from the ATM (23.7m shares); plus a $200m gross share issue on 15 Oct (61.54m shares at 3.25), runway now 'into 2029'. 2026 cash opex guidance <$375m (from <$390m). Tempus 21 Sep: Recursion's discretionary data licence payments (up to $84m over 2 years) are changed to a fixed $42m over 3 years; the deal is extended to Nov 2029. This is a cost for Recursion, not income. ARK: StocksToTrade reports about 7.6m shares bought in October plus participation in the share issue; the user's 3.4m is not verified. The market value at stockanalysis (597.8m shares) may not include the full issue; pro forma there are about 620m shares and a market value of about $2.25bn. Q3 figures are not published (expected early Nov). Not examined: patent expiries, litigation, detailed peer multiples for AI biotech and whether REC-102 (ENPP1) has been dropped. The programme was not mentioned in the Q2 material. The score is a ceiling because P/E and PEG are n/a (losses).
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