Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Salmon Evolution
Salmon Evolution
44
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- FCF yield−7
- Debt−7
Strengths
- Bank and anchor investors+2
- Cost improvement+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.28 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,280m
- Cash runway
- 3 months
- Cash / debt
- 281.0 / 2,320.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +17%
Bull case
Phase 2 scales to 14,600 t HOG in 2027 at a cost of about NOK 60/kg, and the salmon price returns to NOK 85-90/kg: that gives an EBITDA of NOK 300-400m. With NOK 2bn in net debt, equity could then be worth NOK 3-4bn (about NOK 6-7 per share, 2x). A 3x also requires phase 3 to be financed without large dilution.
Bear case
Biological problems in the new tanks, the salmon price ends up around NOK 70/kg, and the pre-grower tanks plus repayments from 2028 require new equity far below NOK 3. With NOK 2.3bn in debt and negative cash flow, the stock could fall 50–80%.
Catalysts
- 28 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report: harvest, biomass and cost per kg; first sign of whether phase 2 deliversgradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026First harvest from phase 2 (Indre Harøy) and handover of the last 8 of 12 growth tanks during 2026gradual salmonevolution.com
- Mid-2027Targeted run-rate of 14,600 tons HOG per year (vs guidance of approx. 6,000 t in 2026)gradual investing.com
- Q1 2028Repayments on the bank facility (DNB/Nordea) begingradual inderes.fi
Risk of going to zeromedium – large plant with bank financing and strong anchor investors, but debt/equity approx. 1, negative EBITDA and dependence on salmon price and biology.
Next financingCash of NOK 281m at 30/6-2026 vs quarterly FCF of −NOK 267m (almost all capex for phase 2). The formula gives approx. 3 months, but operations burn only approx. NOK 15–20m a quarter (EBITDA −17m), and capex falls when the last 8 tanks are handed over in 2026. Pre-grower tanks of approx. NOK 400m must be financed – expect new debt and/or an issue in 2027, and the bank loan must be repaid from Q1 2028.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. Subsequent offering of up to 11.1m shares at NOK 4.50 (above the share price, so hardly exercised). Employee options not mapped.
Insiders, last 12 monthsPrimary insiders/major shareholders subscribed in the directed issue in April 2026 at 4.50 NOK (notifiable trade; Ronja Capital and Farvatn Private Equity for over 100m NOK combined). No insider selling found. Amount per person not mapped.
Largest ownersRonja Capital Investment, Farvatn Private Equity and new owner Kontrazi (NOK 100m in 2026) among the largest; insiders about 26%, institutions about 33%, free float about 209m shares. Exact stakes not confirmed.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – DKK 1.28bn. (2) Hot theme: no – land-based salmon is out of fashion after several failures. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – first harvest from phase 2 in Q4 2026 and run-rate in 2027. (4) Major partner: partial – DNB and Nordea as lenders, no industrial partner documented. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – pre-grower tanks of NOK 400m unfunded. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −35% in a year and near the 52-week low, but not a collapse.
Why this asymmetryReal assets and P/B 0.77 give some floor, and phase 2 could double production, but the debt of 2.3bn NOK eats much of the upside, and salmon price/biology could send the company back to the equity issue market. Realistic upside approx. 2x, not 5–10x.
How the score is built
From 100 to 44, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.44 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 5.00 NOK
- Upside to median
- +104.5%
- Analysts
- 7
- Target range
- 2.40 – 6.10 NOK
- 52-week change
- −53%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −8MarginOperating margin −29% and profit margin −31% (TTM, net loss NOK 127m); operating loss in all years 2021–2025 and in every quarter since Q3 2024. Farming cost was NOK 71/kg in Q2 vs a realised price of NOK 70/kg.
- −4Quality of growthHarvest guidance for 2026 lowered from 7,000 to about 6,000 tonnes HOG because of lower biomass production in the first half; Q2 revenue fell 27% year on year to NOK 67m on a weak batch and low prices.
- −4MoatLand-based flow-through facility is not yet proven profitable at scale; cost is on par with sea farming, and the product is sold at spot price with no documented premium (96% superior share is good, but not price-setting).
- −5Capital allocationCapex of NOK 1.22–1.24bn a year (2025–TTM) and share issues in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2026; ROIC −1.9% and ROE −5.7%. A further approx. NOK 400m for pre-grower tanks is on the way.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.77 is the lowest ever (1.16–2.06 in 2021–2025), but EV/sales 9.6 vs 6.8–11.5 in 2024–2025, because debt has tripled: EV NOK 3.9bn vs revenue of NOK 404m and negative EBITDA.
- −7FCF yieldFCF -NOK 1.31bn TTM corresponds to -72% of market cap; analysts expect FCF of NOK -1.18bn in 2026 and continued losses (EPS -0.28).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−20 of −35
- −7DebtInterest-bearing debt rose from NOK 0.74bn (2024) to NOK 2.32bn; net debt NOK 2.04bn, debt/equity 0.98, interest cover −1.2 and Altman Z 0.46. The new bank facility (DNB/Nordea) runs only 3 years with repayments from Q1 2028.
- −5DilutionDirected issue in April 2026: 89m new shares at NOK 4.50 (NOK 400.5m, +17% shares) plus up to 11.1m in a subsequent offering. The price is now NOK 3.31 – 26% below the issue price – and the pre-grower investment may require more capital.
- −4Salmon priceRealised price 70 NOK/kg in Q2 2026 vs 72 in Q2 2025 and 106 in Q2 2024; with costs around 71 NOK/kg, profit depends entirely on a price rise.
- −4Biology and executionWeak batch harvested in Q2 and lower growth than expected in the first half; only 4 of 12 grow-out tanks in phase 2 are in operation, and 8 are to be handed over during the rest of 2026. Land-based facilities have historically had biological setbacks (cf. Atlantic Sapphire).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Bank and anchor investorsDNB and Nordea increased long-term debt by NOK 250m, and existing owners (Ronja Capital, Farvatn Private Equity) as well as the new owner Kontrazi subscribed for more than NOK 200m in the issue.
- +1Cost improvementFarming cost down 13% year over year to NOK 71/kg, feed conversion ratio 1.1, harvest weight up to 3.5 kg and farming EBITDA +NOK 15m in H1 2026 vs −8m a year earlier.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). The Q2 2026 report PDF could not be read; cash and debt are from stockanalysis (30/6-2026), operations from the Q2 call and operational update. Undrawn credit facilities and covenant levels were not found, so runway by the formula (incl. capex) probably underestimates liquidity. The investment in pre-grower tanks of approx. 400m NOK is not documented as financed. Phase 3 (36,000 t) is only an option. Salmon = cyclical. Food production fits best in 'Consumer: food, beverages & restaurants'.
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