SBB

Construction & materials · SwedenRank 728 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4Penny

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Debt and refinancing−12
Margin and returns−8
Capital allocation−7

Strengths

Liquidity for 2026 maturities+2
Completed structural transaction+1

Speculative profile

A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.

All penny stocks

Asymmetry (1–10): 3
Price: 1.83 DKK
Market value: DKK 3,647m
Cash runway: 15 months
Cash / debt: 1,800.0 / 39,200.0m SEK
Dilution, 12 months: +5%

Bull case

Morfiadakis is selling non-core assets, the Sveafastigheter merger lifts earnings 20%, and the 2027–2028 maturities are refinanced without an issue. If the discount to NAV (SEK 7.94) closes from 0.35x to 0.7–0.8x, that gives SEK 5.5–6.5 = 2–2.3x. A 3x also requires falling interest rates and rising property values, so that the leverage works in the right direction.

Bear case

The leverage works both ways: with EV 48.6 bn and market cap 5.5 bn SEK, a fall in property values of about 10% wipes out most of the equity ahead of the B share (after hybrids and preference shares). If the bond market closes in 2027, a debt conversion or directed issue could dilute B shareholders by 50–90%.

Catalysts

30 Sep 2026Merger Sveafastigheter–KlaraBo registered; first full quarter with synergies and new CEO Andreas Morfiadakis (KlaraBo founder)gradual sbbnorden.se
24 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: LTV, refinancing of the 13% preferred shares and plan for 2027 maturitiesgradual stockanalysis.com
2027Senior bonds of SEK 6.0bn fall due (21.3bn in 2027–2029); decides whether SBB can refinance in the market or must sell/dilutebinary investing.com

Risk of going to zeromedium – liquidity covers 2026, and there are real assets (share holdings of SEK 11.9bn), but a CCC rating, LTV 54%, SEK 21bn maturing in 2027–2029 and subordinated position behind SEK 8.6bn hybrids make zero possible in a stress scenario.

Next financingQuarterly burn = cash interest expense (SEK 1,090m TTM). 'Runway' = time to the next major maturity: liquidity of 6.0bn covers 2026 maturities of 4.1bn, but 2027 brings 6.0bn and 2028 5.7bn. Without sales of equity stakes, new bonds or an issue, the gap arises during 2027 (about 15 months). 63% of the Sveafastigheter holding is already pledged.

Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles into ordinary shares found, but hybrid instruments of SEK 8.6bn (perpetual, with interest payments that have previously been deferred) and Morgan Stanley preference shares with a 13% coupon (being refinanced) rank ahead of the B share. Dilution 2025: 4.9%. Number of B shares 1,410m of 1,768m in total.

Insiders, last 12 monthsNo purchases in the SBB share found. Former CEO Leiv Synnes bought 33,000 Sveafastigheter shares for SEK 1.1m on 25/9-2026 (after his departure) – not in SBB.

Largest ownersIlija Batljan (founder) and Kjell Inge Røkke are named as major owners (stakes not confirmed). Insiders 20.9%, institutions 19.7%; free float c. 1.01bn shares.

Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – DKK 3.6bn. (2) Hot theme: no – Swedish real estate with debt problems. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – Q3 report and refinancings, gradual, not binary data. (4) Major partner: partial – Brookfield in Nordiqus and Røkke as owner, but no validation of the B share. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – only 2026 is covered. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −46% in a year and −93% since 2021.

Why this asymmetryLarge leveraged upside if rates and property values turn, and the discount to NAV is marked; but the stock sits at the back of the queue behind DKK 39bn in debt and 8.6bn in hybrids, and the management change in August shows unrest. Liquidity is good (DKK 8.6m/day), so you can get out – that lifts it slightly.

How the score is built

From 100 to 36, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

36Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 2.14 SEK
Median analyst target: –
Upside to median: –
Analysts: none
Target range: –
52-week change: −59%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30

Margin and returns
Net loss every year since 2022 (−10.1, −22.9, −6.3, −2.9 bn SEK; TTM −4.4bn), ROIC 0.7% and interest cover 0.71 on stockanalysis' figures. H1 2026: net loss SEK 588–678m, and cash flow from operations before working capital only 86m (502m a year earlier).
stockanalysis.com
−8
Quality of growth
Revenue has shrunk from SEK 5.9bn (2021) to 1.87bn due to forced sales, and net asset value per share has fallen from 37.45 to 6.59 SEK (book value). Like-for-like rent +4.7% in H1, but total rental income stood still (955 vs 952m).
tradingview.com
−6
Capital allocation
Debt-financed expansion 2019–2022 ended in a debt crisis; equity per share −82% since 2021, share count +10% since 2024 (dilution 4.9% in 2025), and a 13% coupon is paid on preference shares to Morgan Stanley.
investing.com
−7
Structure and moat
The value lies in three ownership stakes (Sveafastigheter 10.2, PPI 9.7, Nordiqus 9.2 SEK bn), where SBB does not freely control the cash flow; minority interests SEK 5.6bn. The holding structure gives structural subordination for SBB shareholders.
investing.com
−3

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−10 of −35

Multiples vs own history
P/B 0.22 and approx. 0.35 x long-term NAV look cheap, but EV/EBITDA 42.8 is on a par with 2021–2023 (37.7–44.6): the stock is a geared residual of an EV of SEK 48.6bn vs market value of 5.5bn. The discount is compensation for debt and hybrids, not a mispricing.
stockanalysis.com
−5
FCF yield
TTM operating cash flow SEK 643m (P/OCF 8.6), but −39% year over year, and levered FCF is SEK −579m TTM; after hybrid interest and preference coupon, nothing is left for ordinary shareholders.
stockanalysis.com
−4
Peers
The discount to NAV is larger than at Swedish residential peers, but SBB has LTV 54% and a CCC rating vs investment grade at e.g. Sveafastigheter (BBB−, LTV 45%); adjusted for risk, there is only a small discount.
investing.com
−1

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−27 of −35

Debt and refinancing
Interest-bearing debt SEK 39.2bn (7 x market cap), of which senior bonds 25.7bn; maturities 4.1bn in 2026, 6.0bn in 2027, 5.7bn in 2028 and 21.3bn in 2027–2029. LTV rose from 50% to 54%. Scope: senior unsecured CCC, hybrid C.
scoperatings.com
−12
Hybrids and preferred capital
Hybrid instruments of SEK 8.6bn and Morgan Stanley preference shares with a 13% coupon rank ahead of the ordinary shares; in a new debt restructuring it is the B shareholders who bear the loss first.
investing.com
−4
Currency and interest cover
Currency loss of SEK 728m in H1 on euro debt; interest coverage fell from 2.3x to 1.9x.
investing.com
−3
Pledging
On 29/7-2026 SBB pledged 78.5m Sveafastigheter shares (63% of the holding) for a credit facility; a price decline in Sveafastigheter could trigger a demand for more collateral.
marketmate.se
−3
Management and governance
CEO Leiv Synnes stepped down with immediate effect 11/8-2026 (12+12 months' pay); analysts read it as a conflict with the board or the major owners Batljan and Røkke. The share fell approx. 8% the same day.
realtid.se
−3
Dilution
The share count rose from 1,604 to 1,768m (+10%) from 2024 to 2025; new shares are an obvious tool at the next maturity wall.
stockanalysis.com
−2

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15

Liquidity for 2026 maturities
Available liquidity SEK 6.0bn (cash 1.8bn, unused facilities 3.5bn, receivable from PPI 0.7bn) covers 2026 maturities of 4.1bn; listed equity holdings of 11.9bn can be sold.
investing.com
+2
Completed structural transaction
The Sveafastigheter–KlaraBo merger (property value 47 bn SEK) was registered on 30/9-2026 with synergies of at least 120 m SEK a year and expected +20% earnings to SBB's shareholders.
sbbnorden.se
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Penny analysis (Under DKK 3), turnaround real estate company. Real estate does not fit the industry list; 'Construction & materials' chosen as the closest. SBB is now effectively a holding company with three core holdings (Sveafastigheter, Public Property Invest, Nordiqus), so stockanalysis' revenue/EBITDA covers only part of the value; the net loss is primarily due to write-downs and currency. No stockanalysis forecast page (404). Whether long-term NAV (SEK 7.94/share) is before or after hybrid capital is not verified. Ownership stakes for Batljan and Røkke not confirmed. Lawsuits from bondholders (the EduCo case) not investigated. Scope rating (CCC senior / C hybrid) from a search result, not from the full report.