Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Scandinavian Tobacco Group
Scandinavian Tobacco Group
72
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- ROIC and margin−8
- Quality of growth and the segment of the future−6
- Debt and dividend cut−5
Strengths
- Dividend covered by FCF+2
- Debt reduction through divestments+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 72, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 77.30 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 84.00 DKK
- Upside to median
- +8.7%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 78.00 – 90.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- −10%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.5
- Forward P/E
- 6.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−17 of −30
- −8ROIC and marginROIC has fallen every year from 12.4% (2021) to 6.6% TTM, operating margin from 22.2% to 13.5% and gross margin from 50.0% to 44.4%. Guidance for 2026 is an EBIT margin before special items of only 13.0-14.5%. The company is getting weaker, not stronger.
- −6Quality of growth and the segment of the futureOrganic sales −0.3% in H1 2026: hand-rolled cigars +6%, but machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco −4%. Consensus expects a revenue decline of about 2% in both 2026 and 2027, and EPS has fallen from DKK 16.20 (2022) to DKK 8.10 TTM. Nicotine pouches are still small.
- −3Capital allocationAcquisitions of about DKK 1.16bn (2023-24) and buybacks of about DKK 0.95bn in the same period were partly debt-financed while earnings fell. The return on the acquisitions is not visible: ROIC fell from 10.4% to 6.6%. BREAK and Moro are now being sold to put things right.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−1 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 7.0 vs 7.3-8.9 in 2021-25 (forward), EV/EBITDA 6.8 vs 6.7-8.0 and P/FCF 8.5. Low and in line with history, but earnings are falling, so the low multiple is largely deserved.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−11 of −35
- −5Debt and dividend cutNet debt DKK 5.3bn and leverage 3.0x EBITDA before special items, above the target of 2.5x (1.4x in 2021). Interest paid rose from 118 to 328m. The debt forced the dividend down 47% from 8.50 to DKK 4.50 (lowest since the stock market listing), and buybacks are suspended.
- −3Customer behaviour and volumeStructural decline in machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco (−4% organic in Q2 2026), which is still a large part of the group. Smoking is falling in all core markets, and growth in hand-rolled cigars only just offsets it.
- −2Tariff rates and regulationHand-rolled cigars for the US, STG's largest market, are produced in the Dominican Republic, Honduras and Nicaragua and are hit by US tariffs of 10%, with a risk of 15%. This squeezes margin or prices in the only growing segment.
- −1Earnings qualityThe EBITDA margin before special items of 19.9% in H1 2026 (18.8%) was helped by a one-off refund of duties. Without it, the improvement was smaller, and full-year guidance for adjusted EPS (DKK 9-11) is below 2025 (DKK 10.80).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Dividend covered by FCFDividend yield 5.8%. The dividend of DKK 355m TTM is covered about 1.8 times by FCF after leasing of DKK 645m, and guidance for FCF before acquisitions is DKK 950-1,200m in 2026.
- +1Debt reduction through divestmentsAgreement to sell the fine-cut tobacco brands BREAK and Moro to JT for DKK 1.3bn (about DKK 1.0bn after tax); the proceeds go to debt reduction, and leverage is expected below the 2.5x target after closing before year-end.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Only 2 analysts cover the stock, so price targets and estimates are thin. Stockanalysis shows a fall in share count of 33.7%, but there are no buybacks in the TTM cash flow, so the figure is a data error and earns no points. The Q3 report comes on 11/11/2026 and is not included. The EU's new tobacco excise directive and FDA regulation of cigars are not examined. Insider trades are not examined.
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