Rankings Semiconductors Seagate Technology
Seagate Technology
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−16
- Quality of growth−5
- Customer concentration−4
Strengths
- Beat and raised guidance+2
- Technology lead (HAMR)+2
- Debt reduction+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 593.76 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1,045 USD
- Upside to median
- +76.0%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 700.00 – 1,588 USD
- 52-week change
- +132%
- P/E (trailing)
- 31.1
- Forward P/E
- 12.6
- PEG
- 0.16
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30
- −5Quality of growthGross margin has gone from 19-30% in FY22-FY24 to 45.6% in FY26 and 52.7% in Q4; ROIC is 86% vs -2.5% to 39.5% in FY22-FY25. The lift is mainly price and mix driven in an HDD market with three suppliers in the middle of an AI storage cycle, and FY23 showed that operating margin can fall to -1.7% within a year.
- −2Capital allocationSeagate has historically paid out more than FCF could support: in FY22 buybacks of $1.85bn plus a dividend of $0.61bn vs FCF of $1.28bn, and in FY23 $1.03bn vs FCF of $0.63bn. This led to negative equity in FY23-FY25 and net debt of about $5bn.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−19 of −35
- −16Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 17.7 vs 7.7-21.9 in FY22, FY24 and FY25 (59 in the trough year FY23); P/S 11.9 vs 1.3-3.3; EV/EBITDA 32.8 vs 8-16 in normal years; P/TBV 154. A cyclical hardware stock should trade low on peak earnings, but Seagate trades high, even after the fall from about $1,093 in June to $639.
- −3FCF yieldFCF yield 2.1% (P/FCF 47) vs 2.7-8.6% in FY22-FY25; even analysts' expected FCF of $7.0bn in FY27 gives only about 4.8% of the market value of $145bn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−13 of −35
- −4Customer concentrationData center accounted for 89% of the 218 exabytes and $2.9bn of the $3.6bn revenue in Q4 FY26, i.e. heavy dependence on a few hyperscalers and their capex budgets.
- −4Cycle and sentimentThe price fell 7.5% to $639 on 16 Oct 2026 and is about 24% below the 50-day average ($842) and over 40% below the record near $1,093 in June; beta 2.08. The memory sector has had several sharp sell-offs in 2026 on doubts about the durability of AI demand.
- −2Insider tradingCEO Dave Mosley has sold over $120m in 2026 (most recently 10,002 shares at about $929-946 on 1 Oct 2026), and insiders have sold about $274m in 12 months without a single share bought; insiders own only 0.26%.
- −2Substitution from flashHDDs live off the price difference to QLC SSDs. With record prices and record margins on hard drives, hyperscalers' incentive to move data to flash increases, and Seagate has no flash business to fall back on.
- −1DilutionThe share count rose 5.5% in a year (1.3% in the latest quarter) to 227.4m, so shareholder yield was net negative (-5.1%) despite buybacks.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 4 findings+6 of +15
- +2Beat and raised guidanceQ4 FY26 revenue of $3.63bn (+48%) and non-GAAP EPS of $5.71 were above the top of guidance; Q1 FY27 is guided to $4.1bn (+56%), EPS of $7.30 and an operating margin near 50%.
- +2Technology lead (HAMR)HAMR drives made up about 40% of nearline exabytes at the end of FY26, with a target of 70% in June 2027, while Western Digital only launches its first HAMR product in 2027.
- +1Debt reductionGross debt has been reduced from $6.1bn (FY24) to $3.9bn and net debt from $5.0 to $2.2bn (0.5x EBITDA); a further $1.2bn including the remaining convertible bonds was due to be repaid in the September quarter.
- +1Order bookManagement says nearline capacity is almost fully allocated through calendar year 2027 under build-to-order agreements.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
HDD maker; the 'Semiconductors' industry was chosen to match Western Digital (closest peer), although 'Tech hardware & optics' could also fit. Q1 FY27 (the September quarter) is not reported until 27 Oct 2026 and is not included. Forward P/E (17.7) is based on analysts' FY27 EPS of $36.19, i.e. a continued peak in the HDD cycle. P/B and ROE are meaningless because equity was negative in FY23-FY25. The share count rose 5.5% in a year, presumably due to convertible bonds; the cause is not verified in the 10-K. Customer concentration by named customer has not been examined. 13F purchases give no points.
Also in Semiconductors
The highest scores in the same industry.
