Rankings Semiconductors Nordic Semiconductor
Nordic Semiconductor
70
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−10
- Absolute price level−7
- Margin−5
Strengths
- Net cash+1
- Strong guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 70, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 176.00 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 185.00 NOK
- Upside to median
- +5.1%
- Analysts
- 16
- Target range
- 134.00 – 250.00 NOK
- 52-week change
- +22%
- P/E (trailing)
- 64.2
- Forward P/E
- 40.4
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−11 of −30
- −5MarginOperating margin 5.3% and net margin 4.2% (TTM) vs 20.8% and 15.8% in 2022. Analysts expect only an 8.8% operating margin in 2026 (73 of USD 834m), even though revenue is back above the 2022 level.
- −3ROICROIC 7.0% TTM vs WACC 9.5%; 55.8% in 2022 and 36.8% in 2021. The return on capital is still below the cost of capital.
- −3Capital allocationOver 40% of R&D goes to long-range (cellular IoT) and early businesses that account for only about 10% of revenue, and the share count has risen 3.1% in a year (dilution, including after the Memfault acquisition).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−17 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 46.7 (NTM) and 67 on 2026E vs 24.5 in 2022 (the last normal year); 2023–25 were above 100 on trough earnings. EV/EBITDA 55 vs 15.5 in 2022; P/S 4.8 vs 3.3–4.4 in 2022–25. The recovery is priced in before the margin is back.
- −7Absolute price levelFCF yield 0.07% and earnings yield 0.9% (TTM) at a market value of NOK 36.2bn. Analysts expect only USD 44m of FCF in 2026 (about 1.3%), and the average target is only 5.7% above the price.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−8 of −35
- −3Moat and competitionNordic's share of Bluetooth LE certifications fell below 30% in Q2 (31% before), and sales to the broad market are still almost 20% below the 2022 peak.
- −3Inventory and pull-forwardWorking capital is 26% of revenue (above the 25% target) after a deliberate inventory build, and management warns that customers pulling orders forward because of tight supply could hit later quarters. Operating cash flow was only USD 15m in Q2. In 2023 revenue fell 30% in a destocking.
- −2Customer concentrationIndustrial & Healthcare (40% of revenue) depends on a small number of large customers, which creates volatility; the consumer segment is 57%. The share per customer is not disclosed.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Net cashCash of USD 276m and an undrawn USD 200m credit facility; net cash of NOK 1.1bn.
- +1Strong guidanceRecord revenue of USD 219m in Q2 (+33%) at the top of guidance, a 53.1% gross margin and Q3 guidance of USD 220–240m (+23–34% y/y).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Accounts in USD, price in NOK. Earnings are recovering from the 2023–24 trough (distributor destocking), so trailing P/E 116 and P/FCF 1,478 overstate the price; forward P/E 46.7 (NTM) and 67 on 2026E are the usable measures. TTM FCF is almost zero due to deliberate inventory build. Nordic is fabless and not on the list of cyclical industries, but revenue fell 30% in 2023 in an inventory cycle – hence cyclical: false, but see the model note. Peers (Silicon Labs, Espressif) and insider trades have not been examined in depth: an insider purchase on 30/4/2026 was found, but without name or amount, so no plus has been given.
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