Rankings Semiconductors Micron
Micron
75
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−16
- Quality of growth−8
- Competition and supply−7
Strengths
- Visibility+3
- Net cash+2
- Raised guidance+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 75, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 833.59 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1,550 USD
- Upside to median
- +85.9%
- Analysts
- 49
- Target range
- 361.00 – 3,000 USD
- 52-week change
- +273%
- P/E (trailing)
- 11.2
- Forward P/E
- 4.7
- PEG
- 0.09
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−11 of −30
- −8Quality of growthGrowth is price-driven: gross margin went from 2.7% (FY23) and 39.8% (FY25) to 87.0% (non-GAAP) in Q4 FY26, and all four business units now have 83-90% gross margin. ROIC is 93% versus -7.4% to 19.4% in FY22-25. The new take-or-pay agreements with minimum prices dampen the cycle, but memory is still a commodity with three major suppliers, and peak prices are not a new normal.
- −3Quality of earnings (capital intensity)Capex was 27.4bn $ in FY26 (8.4bn $ in FY24) and is expected at approx. 11.5bn $ in Q1 FY27, approx. 25bn $ in H1 and over 50bn $ for the whole of FY27. Adjusted FCF of 33.2bn $ in Q4 includes customer deposits (CFO expected approx. 10bn $ in Q4). Share count is +1.6% over a year, even though 0.65bn $ was bought back.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−16 of −35
- −16Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 5.8 (FY27 EPS $176) and trailing P/E 13.8 look cheap, but memory stocks always trade at a low P/E on peak earnings (forward P/E 6.5 in mid-2022 just before the downturn). P/B is 8.4 versus 1.3-2.5 in FY22-25 and P/S 8.7 versus 2.1-4.9. EV/EBITDA is 10.1 (within 3.5-12.3 excluding the trough year FY23) and P/FCF 19.8 (about 23 excluding the deposit). The multiples have fallen after the results, but the price still assumes that peak prices hold for several years.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−13 of −35
- −7Competition and supplySamsung and SK Hynix are both approved as HBM4 suppliers for Nvidia's Rubin. Micron had 21% of the HBM market versus SK Hynix's 58% in Q1 2026, and Samsung is expected to gain share in 2027. New capacity arrives in 2027 (Micron's own fabs in Singapore, Idaho and Taiwan), and all three are raising capex sharply. This is the classic sign that prices may turn from 2027-28.
- −2Insider tradingCEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 40,000 shares for approx. 37m $ in July and 40,000 shares for 38.8m $ on 21/8 via a 10b5-1 plan. The CFO and the chief people officer also sold in July. No insider purchases found, and insiders own only 0.21%.
- −3Macro and sentimentThe stock is +424% over 52 weeks, and beta is 2.23. Price targets range from 361 $ (-65%) to 3,000 $ (+192%). Despite a beat of approx. 2.7bn $ and strong guidance, the stock closed at 1,029 $ on 9/10 versus 1,065 $ before the results. This suggests the market is pricing in the peak. Gross margin in the Q1 guidance (86.25%) is slightly lower than in Q4 (87.0%).
- −1China and regulationMicron acknowledges that Chinese producers (CXMT and others) are making progress, but most of their output is sold in China. Chinese DRAM capacity is a risk to commodity DRAM prices in the medium term, and US export rules are an uncertainty.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +2Net cashCash and investments of $73.5bn against debt of $5.2bn give net cash of about $68bn (about 6% of market cap). About $18bn is customer deposits, so adjusted net cash is about $50bn.
- +3Visibility16 strategic customer agreements, 14 of them take-or-pay, equal approx. 100bn $ in total revenue at minimum prices. On top come 22bn $ in deposits and letters of credit. Customers demand approx. 50% more than Micron can supply, and management expects sequential revenue growth in every quarter of FY27.
- +2Raised guidanceQ4 revenue was $54.23bn versus guidance of $50bn and consensus of about $51.5bn; EPS was $33.42. Q1 FY27 is guided to $61.5bn ±1.5 and EPS of $38.15 versus consensus of about $57-58bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Re-scored 11 Oct 2026 after the Q4 FY26 report (30 Sep). The memory cycle is at peak prices, and forward P/E of 5.8 is calculated on peak earnings (cycle trap); P/B is the better cycle measure. Q4 FCF is inflated by customer deposits (approx. 10bn $ expected in Q4, 18bn $ in total). Customer concentration (share from Nvidia/hyperscalers) is not quantified. The status of the Netlist patent case (445m $ judgment from 2024, immaterial in size) and export rules to China have only been examined superficially. No insider trades have been found since the report.
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